Thread 938046099

How smart is /b/?

>>938046099 (OP)
1/2

Kanye West Killed 45 million Jews
2/3

>>938046099 (OP)
Can I peek

>>938046099 (OP)
stupid ass clanker.

>>938046099 (OP)
I don't care how red your balls are, I'm not touching them, fuck off.

50%

>>938046099 (OP)
2/3 so 75%

>>938046286
Can you explain why you think the answer is 1/2?

>>938046330
Can you also explain why you think the answer is 2/3?

>>938046555
>50%
How confident are you trips boy?

>>938046964
>>>938046286
>Can you explain why you think the answer is 1/2?
>>>938046330
>Can you also explain why you think the answer is 2/3?
One counted each box as a possibility, the other counted each ball as a possibility. The question is left deliberately vague so really even deliberately wrong answers are correct.

>>938046964
50%. If you already removed a red ball, that means your box could either be double red or red green. So 50%

>>938046964
>Can you explain why you think the answer is 1/2?
The question is "2 green, 1 red 1 green, and 2 red". You remove one, and it's red (eliminating box A). If you've picked box B, there's a 0% chance of getting red again. If you've picked box C, there's a 100% chance of getting red again. The mean of 0% and 100% is 50%.

>>938046099 (OP)
Dumb question, I can clearly see into everyone of those fucking boxes

>>938046460
>[Deleted]
>Can I peek
LOL

>>938047081
>The question is left deliberately vague so really even deliberately wrong answers are correct.
That is completely incorrect. There is only one correct answer.

>>938047170
>50%. If you already removed a red ball, that means your box could either be double red or red green. So 50%
I buy a lottery ticket. I could win or not win, therefore 50%, right? Your logic is flawed. Now try again. The answer is not 50%

>>938047309
>The question is "2 green, 1 red 1 green, and 2 red".
Yes

>You remove one, and it's red (eliminating box A).
Yes

>If you've picked box B, there's a 0% chance of getting red again.
Yes

>If you've picked box C, there's a 100% chance of getting red again.
Yes

But you haven't answered the OP question. Try again

Correct answer is 2/3.
There are 3 possible balls that you can pick first (the three red balls). 2 of those 3 balls are in a box with another red ball. Therefore the probability is 2/3.

>>938047622
>But you haven't answered the OP question. Try again
Explain.

>>938047649
you've given answers for if you've picked box B and for if you've picked box C, not for if you've picked a red ball, what is the probability that the next ball is red. Try again.

>>938047622
This would be so much easier to explain NOT over typing but here we go. Let’s try again. There’s three boxes. Box 1 has green green, box two has green red, box three has red red. You pull a red ball out of a random box. The question clearly states that you are pulling your next ball from the SAME box. So there’s no “lottery” analogy that works here but nice try. If you’ve pulled a red ball from either box two or three, that means that there is either one red ball or one green ball left inside your box. That is fucking 50%. If you’ve pick don’t get it you’re either baiting or you’re actually stupid. If you disagree fucking tell us WHY you disagree and tell us how YOU would answer

>>938047728
The key word in the question is “from the same box.” Maybe if the balls were all pooled then you would be onto something, but they’re not.

>>938046099 (OP)
The probability is 2/3. The chance is 50%.

>>938048956
>If you’ve pick don’t get it you’re either baiting or you’re actually stupid.
You are an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. So confident in being wrong.

>If you disagree fucking tell us WHY you disagree and tell us how YOU would answer
I will, but first I want you to think about this and see if the light bulb goes off. If you randomly select 1 of the 3 boxes, what is the probability that you pick a box with 2 balls of the same colour?

>>938049039
>The probability is 2/3. The chance is 50%.
Are you retarded?

>>938049247
But we ARENT randomly picking a box. We are picking a red ball from a box, and there are only two boxes with red balls.

>>938049345
No, but you clearly are. Probability and chance are different things.

>>938049247
Jesus Christ just get to the point, everyone else has explained where they’re coming from yet here you are lording over the others pretending you’re better yet saying nothing of substance at all

>>938049383
>But we ARENT randomly picking a box.
>You pick a box at random

Can you not read, anon?

P(A | B) = P(A /\ B) / P(B)
P(redred | first red) = P(redred /\ first red) / P(first red) = (1/3) / (2/3) = 1/2

>>938049434
Okay this is actual bait lol, it says you pick a box and random AND PULL A RED BALL this shits pissing me off more than it should lmao but I want you to get this

>>938049421
Oh, so you are retarded.

>>938049430
>>938049495

Here you go, slowpoles.

Look at the image, now if you pick a box at random and you pick out a red ball at random, are you more likely to have box B or C? is it 50% that the next ball is red? Try to engage your brains this time.

938049512
Fuck off with your horseshit, acorn dick. You'll get no more (you)s from me.

P(A | B) = P(A /\ B) / P(B)
P(second red | first red) = P(second red /\ first red) / P(first red) = (1/3) / (1/3*1/2 + 1/3) = (1/3) / (1/6 + 2/6) = (1/3) / (1/2) = 2/3

>>938049631
Correct, anon.

Congratulation on not being retarded like these other anons. I guess the answer to the OP question is that most anons on /b/ aren't very smart at all.

Pic Related: Visual for dummies

2/3

>>938049592
Lmao sending a completely different scenario

>>938046099 (OP)
60/40

>>938049695
>Lmao sending a completely different scenario
Yeah, for explanatory purposes, to try help brainlets like you understand. I guess it failed and you are hopelessly retarded.

Pic Related: You

>>938049740
Chances are that nobody gives a fuck about probability games on 4chan because they are almost always rigged to be a losing problem. Your smug attitude about it tells us one thing, you need to go back. No need to argue this point, your thread is garbage and so are you.

>>938049806
>basic conditional probability question is rigged
Yep, you're a retard alright.

>>938046099 (OP)
1/3
If we rephrase the question into something less convoluted: "You have three unlabeled boxes. What are the odds you pick box C at random?"

What is inside the boxes doesn't really matter. It's all controlled by your first pick, which is at random. Even if there were a hundred balls in the boxes, in all kinds of colors, the result is still based on you picking one out of three boxes at random. The odds of picking any specific box out of three at random is 1/3.

>>938046964
You can't prove it's not. Where's the evidence?

>>938049806
a normal human being would be intelligent enough to create a system like this.

>>938047309
>The question is "2 green, 1 red 1 green, and 2 red".
No it's not. The question is, if you pick a box at random, what are the odds you picked box C?
The content of the box doesn't affect the odds of anything. What's inside the box is simply a result of which box you picked.

Here's how the colors of the balls don't matter:
>pick box C at random
>randomly take out a ball
>it's red
>take out next ball
>second red ball suddenly turns green because supposedly odds are 50/50
See? This is obviously ridiculous. If you pick a box, whatever was in that box remains the same. So the real question is what are the odds of picking box C at random? The answer is 1/3.

This is very similar to the Monty Hall problem. The odds of the initial choice doesn't change.

>>938049806
>they are almost always rigged to be a losing problem.
Only if you are retarded, which the answers itt demonstrates is the majority of 4chan.

>>938050140
This is wrong you stupid fuck. The fact that you have picked a red ball changes the probability from that point forward. This is a well known problem called Bertrand's Ball Paradox. Look it up if you want more explanation.

>>938050523
>The question is, if you pick a box at random, what are the odds you picked box C?
you conveniently left out the part where you've already picked a red ball, retard.

The answer is 2/3.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>938046099 (OP)
should be 2/3 because the remaining balls in the pool you can choose from are 1 green, 2 red

if you select a green ball at any point that trial is not counted since it specifically says you got a red ball, box A is not a part of the equation

you have 75% to get a red ball from boxes 2 and 3 because theres 3 red, 1 green

>>938049421

oh. you ARE retarded. sorry for asking, champ.

>>938049592

You're not making the point you're trying to make. Even in your scenario you have a probability of 50% that the second ball is red.

Of course the probability to have a red ball for the first pick is higher for B than C. But this is not the question. The question is what are the odds for the second ball AFTER the first one picked is a red one.

>>938049740

you're wrong anon, and he is right. Your 'explanation' is crap.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is it that you have a 2/3rds chance of picking C given that you have a red ball, and C is the only was to get another red ball (100% chance), you have a 2/3rds chance?

>>938051146
was --> way*

>>938050786
>picked a red ball
>what are the odds you picked either B or C?
If we stop there, it's 2/3.
But that's not the question. The question is whether we picked C, which is 1/3.
It's not hard.
>What are the odds we picked either A, B, or C?
3/3.
>What are the odds we picked either B, or C?
2/3.
>What are the odds we picked either C?
1/3.

>>938051006
>Of course the probability to have a red ball for the first pick is higher for B than C
Did you make a mistake or are you just retarded?

>Even in your scenario you have a probability of 50% that the second ball is red.
Ah, you're retard. Carry on.

>>938051093
Well, you're just stupid.

>>938051247
Retard. Read this before you post retarded shit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

2/3

>>938051093
Think of it this way then, every time you put your hand in the RR box you get a red and its counted as part of the experiment, half the time you put your hand in the GR box you get pull a green ball and discord the result. You're much more likely to have counted the RR instance than the GR instance over successive *rolls* hence the 2/3 probability its RR

>>938051935
This nigger is correct

2/3

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>>938048956
pic related is the simplest way to explain why its 2/3

Now do Monty Hall too.

>>938046099 (OP)
The balls are yellow, not green

2/3 probability losers cope harder. 1/2 probability is correct

>>938050842
>>938049682
There is an equal chance of 1/3 for all 3 boxes on the first selection.
The first ball must come from box B or C.
The second ball must come from the same box.
There is a 50% chance the box is B.
There is a 50% chance the box is C.
There is 0% chance the box is A.

The answer is 50/50

>>938054692
Retard

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>938055122
>There is a 50% chance the box is B.
>There is a 50% chance the box is C.
This is wrong as the very fact you picked a red ball as the first ball means you are twice as likely to have the box with 2 red balls. You people are fucking dumb lol

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>938055122
Changed my mind.
There's a 33% chance the box is B
and a 66% chance the box is C

the answer is 2/3 probability

I think I got it! You have 3 red balls and 3 green balls you can pull. Given that you pulled a red ball there's a 66% chance you pulled from box C and 33% chance you pulled from box B (you are more likely to have pulled a red ball if you happened to pull from C)

Therefore you either picked box C which gives you 100% chance of pulling another red ball, or you picked B leading to a 0% chance. Since there's a 66% chance you picked C, there's a 66% chance you're gonna pull another red.

It's all a mathematical trick tho. In reality the initial conditions don't matter, there was a 33% chance of picked either box. Then there was a 50% chance of pulling a red ball, since we did we can eliminate box A, so you are either on B or C, and there's a 50% chance it's either. So 50% chance of picking red again.

All the received knowledge only would affect your odds of we happened to still be on step 1.

Stock check on who gives a flying fuck.

>>938055384
the remaining balls are 2 red, 1 green, there is 3 instances of the balls

instance 1: you selected box B, picked red ball
instance 2: you selected box C, picked red ball #1
instance 3: you selected box C, picked red ball #2

>>938054692
this dumb ass is not adding the chance you pick the other red ball from box C. there is 1 more branch that you have omitted you rube

see

>>938056143

>>938055865
>It's all a mathematical trick tho
Are you fucking stupid? Math isn't a trick, retard.

>there was a 33% chance of picked either box.
Correct

>Then there was a 50% chance of pulling a red ball
Correct

>since we did we can eliminate box A, so you are either on B or C
Correct

>and there's a 50% chance it's either.
Wrong. There isn't a 50% chance you retard since you just pulled out a red ball. you are twice as likely to have box C.

What the fuck is wrong with your brain, you simpleton?