Dimwit: I trust me gut mate.
Topwit: The door opened by the host was not chosen at random, I stick to my initial choice.
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>>22869266 (OP)rape the host and eat the goat
ill swap to the goat door
>>22869266 (OP)it's scientifically proven that you need to change doors
>>22869266 (OP)The first choice you made gave you a 1 in 3 chance of being right.
After the host opens the door, you have a 50-50 chance to guess the right door.
>>22869266 (OP)Do not open any door or the goat shall run away
>>22869271We dont know what the other prize is though
I am taking the goat
>>22869266 (OP)> Experts claim changing the door does not increase the risk of getting a heart attack
>>22869271Op is saying never trust a power structure to align your destiny for you. Even when gay redditors say it's mathematically advantageous. The only truth is reality, math is an interpretation or language imposed upon it. Math is a likewise power structure as is the host. The only path of truth is to accept the calling from within.
>>22869271You are wrong , its 2/3 after switching, not 1/2.
>>22869266 (OP)I don't want a damned goat, so of course I'm choosing another door.
>>22869266 (OP)This is a question that the "high IQ female" got.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRUxbzJZ9Y
>>22869266 (OP)The goat is the devil so I shoot it with a pumpgun and close the door
>>22869266 (OP)Probability mathematics is the jewiest type of maths
>>22869266 (OP)Imagine it with 100 doors.
>pick door at random 1% chance>host opens 98 out of 100 doors>only your initial door out of the hundred and another door that you didn't pick in the initial 1% chance pick.>it is MUCH more likely that its the door you didn't pick, infact there's a 99% chance that its behind the other, as your abysmally low chances of your initial pick don't change even as the host opens doors.
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>>22869281There's very few jews working in Probability Theory. It's one of the youngest fields and wasn't regarded as a proper field for a long time.
The jewiest type by far is set theory. Even the cardinality notation is from Hebrew (?)
>>22869266 (OP)It's 50% and everybody is dumb as fuck
>>22869277The first time you choose it's 1/3. Then one door is opened, revealed to be a wrong choice. At this point you have two choices - one that wins and one that loses. If you choose now, you're odds are 50/50
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>>22869266 (OP)end result is always pic related
>>22869286Sticking with your initial choice is also 50/50.
You're making your choice either way, the universe doesn't reroll any dice.
>>22869282Imagine it with 2 doors
You choose one
Host opens the other
It's a goat
Do you switch
>>22869277>You are wrong , its 2/3 after switching, not 1/2.how?
the probability resets after every reveal
>>22869268Rape the goat and eat the host.
>>22869270>odds changed to 50/50>doing anything changes chancemental retardation
yet again, a useless 1pbtid thread with a sole purpose: wasting space on the catalog in case anyone has the foolish notion that this board is about politics. I miss the few moments of decreased shilling when missiles were flying through the sky. Mods, jannies, and kikes deserve the rope.
>>22869266 (OP)You dumb ass. The fact that the door opened by the host is not random, -is- the reason why it’s better to switch.
>>22869294the second door is not picked at random
It is chosen to show a goat
>>22869296You have 30 threads about Drumpf and Fuentes just go there
>>22869266 (OP)I fell for this once and never again. Imagine if you have a 100 doors and then do this.
>>22869266 (OP)>Brown mutt: I trust me gut mate.>Brown mutt 2: The door opened by the host was not chosen at random, I stick to my initial choice.>White man: All of these doors are connected to the same room.
>>22869297Probability does not apply to single choice events.
>>22869298the choices are of unopened doors not total doors
the variables changed
theres only 2 unopened doors
>>22869293It's always a 50/50 choice because it's a certainty that they're going to eliminate one losing option. You can never actually pick the second losing door.
>>22869296But it’s fun talking about goats and doors
>>22869286>>22869291The problem in OP is incomplete but the chance is not 50/50 because the host can not open the door which reveals the prize to you. The host always opens the door with a goat/dud, and he also doesn't open the door that you picked.
If you don't believe this, you can solve this with a truth table
>>22869266 (OP)Maths is fake and gay.
There's always a 33% chance of picking the goat and no amount of jewish psyop shit will change that.
3 doors, 1 goat. 100/3 = 33.
The quesiton is: why do they want you believe changing your initial opinion = optimal decision?!
>>22869283If I don't switch doors I get a goat but if I do switch doors I possibly get a car?
Then I'll switch doors. Are you fucking retarded?
I don't want a goat.
>>22869302So ?
>You chose the car door>Host opens a goat door>Switch and lose>You chose goat>Host opens goat door>Switch and win50/50
>>22869266 (OP)>>22869271>>22869286picking 1 out of 3 doors and not changing somehow magically transforms into 50/50 exactly how?
>>22869308>3 doors, 1 goat3 doors, 2 goats, 1 car. You're not trying to pick the goat anon.
>>22869304>>22869305you picked before they showed the goat when the odds were 1 in
>>22869266 (OP)>1PBTIDI'm taking the goat and going home
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>>22869313No anon, you can never pick the "second goat".
This isn't pure probability, it's rigged and the goat door is just a distraction to confuse you.
>>22869266 (OP)Why would anybody not pick the goat. I wish I had one
>>22869266 (OP)If I switch I get a goat? I dont want a goat
Im not switching
>>22869314>I'm taking the goat and going home>by Allah, your resistance only makes me hornier
>>22869283Run it 1000 times and get someone that doesn't have Indian fingers like you to code it
>>22869290yes.
If I'm getting chased by a bunch of of shitskins in goymany, I can use the goat as distraction and run away while they rape it.
>>22869266 (OP)Muslim: RRRRRWWOOOOWR! AWOOOGA!
>>22869266 (OP)always gotta switch guys. you gotta switch.
50/50 chance if you switch homie can't get better odds than that
>>22869317I dont have space to keep a goat and i dont want to have take care of a goat. I dont like goat meat.
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>>22869317Go buy one they are fun
>>22869320>he gets to pick the door 1000 timesIdiot.
You do understand how gambling works right?
We're all familar with the monty hall problem at this point. It's not 2015 anymore. Get new engagement bait.
>>22869310original door 1/3 chance of a goat
other two doors 2/3 chance
goat door 0% other door 2/3
>>22869300I mean they are not arbitrarly ordered imagine a sky when these formations would appear, but would that approximation so tight that no photon would ever shine onto us with all our telescope or are those galaxies.
>>22869283Run the simulation millions of times. 15 runs for any sim is a joke as the variance could be entirely misleading.
Switching the doors after being shown a wrong one is the correct choice. You'll be given a 50% chance, an improvement from your original 33% winner.
>>22869326Do you understand how it works?
If you run 1000 simulations it better shows the odds. If you flip two coins twice and get heads twice are the odds 100% to get heads?
It is literally scientifically proven and you can prove it to yourself too if you just think about it a bit. It's REALLY not a hard problem. Or just ask AI I'm sure you are used to that.
>>22869328>>22869310*original door 1/3 chance of prize
>>22869328Picking Correctly is 1/3
Picking Wrong and Changing to correct is 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3
Picking Correctly and Changing to wrong is 1/3 * 1 = 1/3
??
>>22869270Genuine npc logic
>>22869266 (OP)https://www.mathwarehouse.com/monty-hall-simulation-online/
Counter intuitive but in practice it works.
Use simulate and wait for the results.
>>22869266 (OP)Your topwit argument is fucking stupid. The whole premise of the problem implies that the door that will be opened for you WILL have a goat behind it. Theres 0% chance of the right door being revealed; hence, the host doesn't randomly select a door. But you already knew that you fucking faggot.
>>22869315Picrel
>>22869328You're rambling
>>22869266 (OP)You should switch doors. When you first selected a door you had 33% chance of winning. If you now switch that numbers goes up to 50.
>>22869331>>22869330>people never win at casinos because the house has 51% oddsidiots
>>22869315succinctly put. I promise not to invade Poland for at least a week
It's always amusing to observe people who can't conditional probability and yes you get 2/3 by changing. Ask chatgpt to write a python script and try it out 100 times if you don't believe it.
>>22869317My friend's goat ate my bar of lava soap
>>22869266 (OP)Joe Biden wasn’t running though. It was Harris.
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Reminder that randomness has never been proven or achieved.
>>22869266 (OP)>Topwit: The door opened by the host was not chosen at randomYou're right. The door the host opened was known not to be the prize. That's why the Monty Hall paradox works.
>>22869329Those needles will always have the same length in a relative manner.
>>22869339People do win at casinos retard for the reason I stated. Variance. You can flip a coin heads five times in a row and "win" what should be an even money game. But the more runs (flips) you do, the more the true odds will show themselves. Hell, I count cards which gives you about a 2% edge against the house on a 6 deck show. Even if I'm playing at an advantage, I have lost thousands of dollars while the count is high and the odds are in my favor. It's called variance. You're the idiot.
First door is middle eastern man banging the goats rear.
>>22869348imagine if they rotatate with razors.
>>22869330>You'll be given a 50% chance, an improvement from your original 33% winner.Staying gives you 50% too.
>>22869266 (OP)it really is as simple as this, the "house" (gambling organization) always cheats in order to win, simple as
>>22869311Stay or switch both give you 50%
>>22869348https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gx280i/black_holes_could_be_like_a_hologram_where_all/
>>22869312Wouldn't mind a goat though. Goats are based. I could watch them walk up mountains all day.
>>22869330The door being opened to show a goat also demonstrates that your choice was made when the chances were 50%, as well. Why would reselecting magically change your chance? The goat was always behind that door, that door was always a non-choice.
For the purpose of this "problem", one of the doors you don't choose will ALWAYS be a goat, meaning you can never actually choose the goat. This means your actual choice will ALWAYS be 50/50.
>>22869309What if your original door had the car and then you switched to the goat? Gonna feel better when you brag to others that choosing the goat was the statistical best choice?
>>22869311Imagine there's 1000 doors instead, and the host opens 998 doors containing 998 goats.
What were the odds you picked right in the first place?
>>22869311we should play poker sometime
>>22869359i wonder how 1 in 1000 magically transforms into 50/50
>>22869266 (OP)This is literally a textbook example of jew science. There is so much jew science like this that needs to go.
>>22869356You say that, until you see it eating the car you already have.
>>22869359>What were the odds you picked right in the first place?Similar to you picking a door that didn't have a goat behind it
>>22869266 (OP)Test it for yourself
https://www.mathwarehouse.com/monty-hall-simulation-online/
Staying with your choice is still a choice so the odds don't change, idiots.
>>22869360that sometime being 20 years ago, i still regret being a lazy ass when online poker was printing money
>>22869359Chance =/= odds
>>22869266 (OP)Switch to door three. I already have a car. Goat ftw.
>>22869338It's just a trick question.
If you choose and DETERMINE AHEAD that you will switch no matter what you are 50/50 at second pick.
If you flip a coin after the first choice, you are 50/50.
If you stay, and DETERMINE AHEAD, to stay, you are 1/3.
Odds are factored only when a choice or strategy is made. Resets at every actual choice.
It's actually 50/50 on the first try, then converges to its theoretical odds of 66%/33% in subsequent tries.
>>22869266 (OP)By Allah! She is beautiful! Door no. 3 please.
>>22869372>>22869328>>22869308>>22869291bunch of midwits you are
what ever fuckery happened in the past doesnt matter with choices in the present.
if at any present moment: 1 door has nothing 1 door has prize, therefore 50/50
>>22869371This is the correct way to explain the dilemma. Lot of people explain this all wrong and say that if you don't change you are at 1/3 and you should always change to get 1/2. That's not how odds work.
>>22869366Overly convuluted.
There's 3 doors, there's 33% chance of winning the goat. If you change your mind, the goat doesn't move.
>>22869376>>22869371no choice was always 50/50 no matter what because no matter what you picked, the goatherder would take his goat
pick door > remove goat > 2 doors. 50/50
pick door > remove goat > change door > 2 doors left, 50/50
>>22869268Eat the door, the goat rapes the host
>>22869377No, there's 0% of winning the goat. The entire "brain teaser" is predicated on one of the doors you didn't choose having the goat, always. Meaning you can never actually choose the goat. Meaning your initial choice is 50/50.
>>22869266 (OP)Which is better, being given one door or two? When you select a door, you have implicitly partitioned the doors into a group of one, and a group of two. When you swap you are getting two doors instead of one. This fact is obscured because the host opened one of the doors for you. But if you had opened both yourself it would have been the same.
>>22869266 (OP)Because there are two goats and only one car, you will be twice as likely to switch from a goat to a car, than from a car to a goat, even if one goat is revealed after the initial choice.
This means switching will be twice more likely to result in getting the car.
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>>22869380Hmm, didn't actually realise goats are so cheap. Maybe I'll just buy one instead of playing silly games and getting jewed on maths.
https://www.farmingads.co.uk/livestock-animals/goats
the best way to understand this problem is to scale it up to 100 doors.
>you pick 1 door
>host reveals 98 other doors showing goats
>would you like to switch?
then it immediately becomes obvious why you should switch. you picked with 1/100 odds, now the only door left is picked with 50/50 odds.
>>22869380austrlian = smort
everyone else here is like that black guy in the uk who cant comprehend the but what if you didnt eat breakfast how would you feel question
the whole opening the door reveal is the breakfast the midwit cant image and is only there to trick them
>>22869377There are 2 goats and the point of the game is to get the prize instead od them. You are right, the positions of goats and the prize don't change throughout the game and for this reason you get additional 33% chance when switching doors after one of the goats is revealed.
>>22869384>98 goatsincredibly based.
this would make for epic tv. especially if the studio is like your picrel.
>>22869384completely unnecessary
you will only ever have two possible results because only two things can ever possibly fucking happen, simple as
choose door > remove goat > dont change > 2 doors = 50/50
choose door > remove goat > change door = 2 doors left = 50/50
thats it, fuck you all guys are retarded
>>22869380Disregard my part where I said 0%, I misremembered the problem, thinking there was only one goat. My point still stands that one door you didn't choose will always be revealed to show a goat, meaning that your initial choice was, and will always be, between 1 goat and 1 prize, meaning 50/50
>>22869385Thanks fren, I always get unreasonably annoyed by this "brain teaser" because people always jump around and tout their "understanding" of probability. Despite it being misrepresented purely to bait people
>>22869383>200 quid>the jew fears the goat farmerimagine all the goat milk
>>22869388theres always one condition in these monty hall problems that changes everything.
>the host will not reveal a door with a carthats the whole trick. if, the host randomly chose doors to open and it was possible for him to accidentally reveal the car, you would be right.
>>22869391>>the host will not reveal a door with a carso there was a jew behind the doors moving it around, so what
doesnt change the fact that you are presented with two doors IN THE END that contain : 1 car, 1 no car
end result of 1 car, or no car will always occur no matter what choice u do (of which u have a total of 2) and no matter how many jews are behind there repositioning goats
therefore 50/50
simple as, stop taking into account retarded shit like the position of the sun and what the goat had for breakfast when they dont count for the end result, cos they fucking dont count when you got 2 doors in the end and thats the important part
im gonna leave cos you retards triggered me enough
>>22869266 (OP)Let's walk through all possible outcomes shall we?
The Always-Switch Strategy:
-The odds are 1 in 3 that you pick no-goat initially and then switch to goat.
-The odds are 2 in 3 that you pick goat initially and then switch to no-goat.
The Never-Switch Strategy:
-The odds are 1 in 3 that you pick no-goat initially and then stay on no-goat.
-The odds are 2 in 3 that you pick goat initially and then stay on no-goat.
Always-Switch pays 2 out of 3 times, Never-Switch pays 1 out of 3 times.
Good job nitwits! Does anyone game theory here anymore? Holy shit this place has managed to become an even more retarded incarnation of /r/the_donald!
>>22869388You are wrongly assuming that having two doors means that each of them has the same chance of having the prize behind them. Yes, you can choose each of two doors and you have 50% of choosing each door but each of that 50% has to be multiplied by the probability of the prize actually being behind them.
Just refuse to pick and doors and kick OP in the nuts.
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>so many retards spouting the 50/50 line
God have mercy and put humankind out of its misery, please.
>>22869393>-The odds are 2 in 3 that you pick goat initially and then stay on no-goat.-The odds are 2 in 3 that you pick goat initially and then stay on goat.
>>22869312i don't understand what's wrong with the goat. They eat stuff and would piss my neighbor off more than a car. The goat could be a good pet.
>>22869359>Imagine there's 1000 doors instead, and the host opens 998 doors containing 998 goats.What were the odds you picked right in the first place?
If you think it's 1/3 you're retarded
>>22869391>>22869393Except that's not the Monty Hall problem. The Monty Hall problem is always 3 doors, 2 goats, 1 prize. The Monty Hall problem is always 1 door being revealed as a goat. This means that your initial choice is always 50/50.
>>22869266 (OP)The goat's butt must be behind door 2. Choose door 1.
>>22869396Why can't you understand that one of the doors you don't select will always have a goat behind it?
>>22869266 (OP)you all are motherfucking retarded
/thread
>>22869394>multiplied by the probabilityfuck no theres no multiple probability - you always only have 2 doors to get a result from, and the state is always 1 win 1 lose
remove goat is something that ALWAYS HAPPENS NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO therefore its not a probability factor
you will always have 1 win 1 lose door therefore there is no other probability except 50/50
its so simple you fuckin retards, you are just making up probability bullshit to seem intelligent but this is making you stupidier
>>22869400No, it's not. Look at the whole game: he conveys some information by opening a door to a goat, which gives you an advantage. Write out the tree of choices and their payouts and odds, and see that Always-Switch has a 2/3 payout odds and Never-Switch has a 1/3 payout odds.
>>22869384>scale to 100That's actually a different problem entirely because there is a discontinuity when graphed. Three doors has the unique property of being 50/50 in single trials. Otherwise why not scale it to two doors and then it is a 100% chance of winning if Monty never opens the door with the car.
>>22869401if the goats butt is behind door 2 i choose door 2 inshallah
>>22869311Because it is a false choice. One door will always be revealed by the host. The host will always choose a non winning door.
You have two outcomes: winning door or non winning door.
No matter what you choose, right or wrong, the host will always eliminate a non winning door and leave you with two doors.
>>22869356flag checks out
>>22869383>anglo-nubian????????????
>>22869366>Doors A & B have 66% chance>Doors B & C have 66% chance>But when door B is opened, the chances for A drop to 33 but for C stay 66%How can you be this stupid
>>22869405>he conveys some information by opening a door to a goatwhich means the door he opens always has a goat behind it. Meaning that from the outset, your choice is ultimately between two doors, as one door will be opened to reveal a goat. That's the Monty Hall problem, a goat will ALWAYS be revealed.
>>22869403There. now kill yourself OP and anyone who thinks otherwise for fuck's sake.
>>22869403using chatgpt thats demonstrated to make you less smart
good job
THIS is what you should have posted
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
>>22869414I know the answer and I have seen multiple thought experiments so go fuck your own mother. This was for OP and every dumb faggot who says otherwise.
>>22869270You go from 33% to 50% chance. Why change when the data shows that doing nothing increases your chances.
>>22869401This is the only answer I will accept.
>>22869413>>22869403>chatgptthats not the own you think it is, use it less bro, you'll get smarter
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5360220-chatgpt-use-linked-to-cognitive-decline-mit-research/
>>22869283Wow 15 simulations
>>22869271at that point it's 50/50 for either door, so the odds are the same whether you switch or stay, making the decision to switch has no impact on the odds
>>22869414Why dont you check the answer from your wikipedia article, then.
Its not 50/50.
Its 1/3 vs 2/3.
>>22869375You're a dipshit. Your choice has a 1/3 chance of the prize. The other doors represent 2/3 chance of the prize.(obviously) Switching doubles your odds. Don't be a retard
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https://pastebin.com/F6n1Rr1p
deepchink made simulator
>>22869421Imagine there are 100 doors and the host removes 98 of them. What are the odds that the one you picked out of 100 is the right choice? Switching works out in your favor more than it doesn't.
>>22869266 (OP)No, you just went from 1/3 odds to 1/2.
>>22869411>But when door B is opened, the chances for A drop to 33 but for C stay 66%That's correct, because B is opened not randomly out of 3 doors but out of 2 doors that you not have chosen, so omega is different in each case.
>>22869404>you always only have 2 doors to get a result from, and the state is always 1 win 1 loseYes, but the point is that's after the goat has been revealed.
>>22869460You're below retarded. Whatever you choose in phase 1, phase 2 is always a door with a car and a door with a goat. Phase 2 is always 50/50. Kill yourself immediately.
This thread makes me think Terrance Howard was right and 2+2=air
>>22869472>phase 2 is always a door with a car and a door with a goat. Phase 2 is always 50/50That's correct, I never said otherwise, retardo
>Whatever you choose in phase 1Has an impact on the total probability of this puzzle.
NEW THREAD >>>/pol/508827604
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If nothing else, this thread proves that the kikes are right to treat goyim like retarded cattle.
I implore every 50/50let in this thread to either reconsider, or kill themselves immediately for the betterment of the white race. We will never be free of the hew when they have dumb niggers like you to latch onto.
1/3 chance of randomly selecting the correct door, equitable to a 2/3 chance of having instead randomly selected either of the incorrect doors.
2 out of 3 random plays, if you switch from an incorrect door, you get the correct door.
1 out of 3 random plays, if you don't switch from the initial door, you get the correct door.
realistically, if you were to functionally play this door game, you'd only get to play it only once, with one of four results, regardless of the method of decision:
>picked door, switched, won
>picked door, switched, lost
>picked door, didn't switch, won
>picked door, didn't switch, lost
two win conditions, two lose conditions.
50/50
Lets draw the probabilty map.
Supposedly Door1=car , Door2=goat, Door3=goat
When player has a strategy to not change his initial choice:
A. His initial pick is 1, host reveals 2, stays at 1 , wins
B. His initial pick is 2, host reveals 3, stays at 2, loses
C. His initial pick is 3, host reveals 2, stays at 3, loses.
So 1/3 chance to win if he never changes initial choice.
When player has strategy to always change his initial choice:
A. His initial pick is 1, host reveals 2, changes at 3 , loses
B. His initial pick is 2, host reveals 3, changes at 1, wins
C. His initial pick is 3, host reveals 2, changes at 1, wins
So when the strategy is to always change initial choice he has a 2/3 chance to win.
>>22869508You’re actually so fucking close to getting it, but then miss the mark right at the very end.
The existence of two possible outcomes does not determine the probability distribution of the outcomes.
By your logic, if I go and get trans surgery tomorrow I will be either
>a manOr
>a womanDepending on wether the surgery was successful. So 50/50, right? WRONG.
There is a 0% chance I will be a woman and a 100% I just got mutilated and financially ripped off by my doctor.
There is a 1/3 chance I have the prize initially, and a 2/3 chance I dont.
>>22869522don't get trans surgery.
>>22869403The answer is right, but Chatgpt cant simulate things you fucking moron.
>>22869808I belive in the retard AI and you should too you asshole
>>22869816i said the answer is right.
But you cant trust ai to get rarer questions correct or this one correct if you change details.
>>22869816this
>>22869825another way to think about it; the AI is 'thinking' "what would a person who HAD simulated this event 1000 times say?"
it's unreliable, especially when you ask more complex things
its basically glorified autocomplete
>>22869271then what happens if i picked the right door at the start and the host took away one of the two wrong doors, then i switch to another door and its wrong?
>>22869866i trust my luck at picking the correct door at the start (my first choice).
fate has a plan for me, and its ultimate luck and greatness. NO SWITCHING.
A model does not know how to construct Monte Carlo simulations on its own. A model only knows how to produce a statistical basket of possible next tokens.
What would be valid is having it generate code, argue its validity, have it counter-argue against itself, have it then revise and argue for its final validity, and because you have a life and don't want to do this a dozen times you then validate it yourself and correct where it went wrong.
Then run the Monte Carlo simulation code. Get your answers. Make LibreOffice Calc (fuck microdick) spreadsheets. Git gud, be based.
