Japanification of America, the - /biz/ (#60521342) [Archived: 1057 hours ago]

Anonymous ID: mAtY2v9O
6/19/2025, 4:07:07 AM No.60521342
images
images
md5: 0a6a9f9a0c7d466c1a8d18c90d179e8e🔍
...so in the past the (US) Govt had to bail out banks, now it looks like the banks are made to 'bail' out the Govt.

...the US has to buy its own debt.

The U.S. government has quietly initiated a stealth liquidity backdoor for banks by easing capital requirements on Treasury trades.

•Banks no longer need to reserve as much capital when holding or trading U.S. government debt
•They can now soak up more Treasury issuance without showing increased risk on their balance sheets
•This injects artificial demand into the Treasury market and helps paper over collapsing organic demand

This is not a policy shift. It’s a quiet declaration of structural stress. The Treasury market, the backbone of the global financial system, is now so fragile and overburdened with issuance that it can no longer function without regulatory distortion.
•The U.S. government is issuing $1–2 trillion in new debt every quarter
•Foreign buyers like China and Japan are net sellers
•Domestic demand is not keeping up
•Yields are becoming increasingly unhinged from real risk So they’re turning banks into forced buyers by changing the rules.

This is yield curve control by stealth, and it signals: The sovereign debt machine is losing control of its own narrative.

So where does the Iran distraction come in?
Exactly here:
•War = cover for liquidity expansion
•War = narrative control
•War = moral justification for massive capital deployment
•War = optical deferral of systemic accountability

The Iran “surprise” hype machine serves a dual purpose:
1. Emotionally spike public attention away from domestic insolvency
2. Create narrative justification for increased military spending and debt expansion, all under the guise of national security

They’re not trying to hide the debt anymore. They’re trying to normalize the next phase of collapse by staging urgency elsewhere.
Replies: >>60521422 >>60521426 >>60521451
sage ID: QGSvTfRK
6/19/2025, 4:13:31 AM No.60521356
this is called fiscal dominance. this is the path of all countries due to demographic collapse. it's slowly happening right now. which is why the FED will cut rates. will outright appear as the boomers retire en masse.

global TFR ex africa is 1.7. economy can't grow with declining population.
Replies: >>60521358 >>60521386
Anonymous ID: mAtY2v9O
6/19/2025, 4:14:25 AM No.60521358
>>60521356
cope
Replies: >>60521378
Anonymous ID: zGABvVso
6/19/2025, 4:15:20 AM No.60521366
>So where does the Iran distraction come in?
You may have listed justifications for getting involved in the Israel/Iran shit, but given Netanyahu's 30 year repetition of
>Iran is mere weeks from nuclear missiles
and the 2001 Israeli plan for 7 wars, all of which have been fulfilled except for the last with Iran, I fully believe we'll be in Iran for Israel alone. The things you listed are just bonus.

Great thread though. I'm more interested in how many ways the Fed has to enact stealth QE and YCC and how we can properly monitor these to know which recession indicators are being manipulated to perpetuate the soft landing narrative.
sage ID: QGSvTfRK
6/19/2025, 4:17:35 AM No.60521378
>>60521358
why do i need to cope. i'm agreeing with you faggot. dumb fuck retards can't even go 2 secs without thinking someone wants to argue with them.

trying roping you literal shit for brains.
Replies: >>60521380
Anonymous ID: YNdFsptf
6/19/2025, 4:18:24 AM No.60521380
>>60521378
mad
Anonymous ID: zGABvVso
6/19/2025, 4:20:00 AM No.60521386
>>60521356
>economy can't grow with declining population.
I understand this reasoning but most people saying this just are just repeating what they hear from some podcast. Yes population has an effect on growth, but economic output adjusted for population and inflation follows a power law, super-exponential a la O(n!)=O(n^n) if you know https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_O_notation
Unless your population is collapsing at an inverse power law, your economy is still likely to grow from production efficiencies alone.
Replies: >>60521407
sage ID: QGSvTfRK
6/19/2025, 4:30:10 AM No.60521407
>>60521386
>production efficiencies alone.

memes. higher GDP per capita has limitations. consuumption economies stagnate because why would one person need 3 fucking cars? there's limits to aboslute consumption levels for energy and natural resources. this for all goods and services.

i don't think you actually realize how bad TFRs are globally. all advanced asian ecnomies are flirting with 1. canada is at 1.2. europe is fucked 1.44. mathemaitcally, you cannot course correct for at least 20 years. there has been no pro natal polices that have managed to reverse their TFRs to above 2 over decades.

taking snapshot TFR and extrapolating, indicates global pop halves by 2040-2050. this is not true since TFRs are actaully declining, so the effect will be sooner.

economy = population, natural resources, energy, technology. what happens to the fictional GDP economy when the population halves? this is not a meme podcast since almost nobody wants to cover this. this demographic decline was already projected in the 90s by some think thanks. and i'm not going to bother getting into the other 3 factors. you very clearly believe GDP up = actual growth. just like the UN believes bayesian 2.1 TFR anchoring in all their population agendas is accurate and realistic.
Replies: >>60521434
Anonymous ID: KEFpsKce
6/19/2025, 4:37:55 AM No.60521422
>>60521342 (OP)
thanks Claude
Anonymous ID: IIM5oDH9
6/19/2025, 4:39:32 AM No.60521426
>>60521342 (OP)
Big brain thread.

What do we buy big brain anon? Gold before every currency hyperinflates? Bitcoin in the hopes that tether whales can entrench crypto with governments before it’s too late and it becomes a “too big to fail” asset?
Anonymous ID: zGABvVso
6/19/2025, 4:41:25 AM No.60521434
>>60521407
>consuumption economies stagnate because why would one person need 3 fucking cars? there's limits to aboslute consumption levels for energy and natural resources
Yes I acknowledge specific products have their limits. The growth isn't coming from selling more cars. It's from selling cars with more features, or from new products altogether. I'm willing to believe there is a theoretical total product limit, but not that we'll be anywhere near it in our lifetime. I'm talking a world where every person owns mansions in multiple locations and has access to everything they could ever conceive of.
Also I absolutely am not thinking about GDP. My last post was purely about actual produced goods and services. But if we focus only on
>economy = population, natural resources, energy, technology
AI will replace any population decline and it needs a lot more energy than the existing population
Replies: >>60521484
Anonymous ID: wZTecrF1
6/19/2025, 4:46:59 AM No.60521451
>>60521342 (OP)
The probably has more to do with oil when we were removed from the gold standard we moved to the petrodollar. With a lot of countries buying oil from Iran I think the US just wants to go in and take complete control but idk seems like another stupid forever war we are going to lose
Anonymous ID: X8NUrAhg
6/19/2025, 4:50:33 AM No.60521465
68bdjH7
68bdjH7
md5: ef3a91b7e17cbbd7f0703cdabb662466🔍
Nothing ever happens

And even if it does, ganbatte anon-san :)
sage ID: QGSvTfRK
6/19/2025, 4:57:16 AM No.60521484
>>60521434
>AI will replace any population decline and it needs a lot more energy than the existing population

again, you have no idea what you're talking. i've used GER mineral and energy inputs to determine the global averaged EROI, the world is well under where we need to be to maintain complex society wiht 10:1 or 15:1 EROI needed. i'm not going to tell you what figure i got. you can challenge your own assumptions if you actually want learn the truth. you are regurgitating mainstream talking points.

thermodynamics and entropy is greater than any ideological framing.
Replies: >>60521514
Anonymous ID: zGABvVso
6/19/2025, 5:06:01 AM No.60521514
>>60521484
The lack of information in this post and your constant acronym obfuscation defense tells me you're more interested in being right than just having a conversation. I've obviously not tried to determine global EROI nor will I so I'm not going to argue here. But just trust that I'm not trying to be ideological at all. I'd completely agree with any thermodynamics reasoning if I saw any.
Replies: >>60521605
sage ID: QGSvTfRK
6/19/2025, 5:41:32 AM No.60521605
>>60521514
>I'd completely agree with any thermodynamics reasoning if I saw any.

i'm not doing the research for you. your entire stance is premised upon thermodyanics having zero applicability. you validate and test your belief system by finding contradictory information if you desire; i've already done this step for my understanding of global system modeling. but you are like most humans who suffer immensely from recency bias and linear extrapolations. real systems operate on postive and negative feedback loops on exponential curves. that's all there is to say.

within the next 5 - 10 years MAX: two things will happen fiscal dominance and failure of the energy extraction industry. shale oil should be peaking just about now. there is no replacement for oil. make your own conclusions what happens after that with structural demographic decline as a background.