Is anyone in here profiting from sports betting? If yes, what sports and why? Also, generally speaking, which variables do you take into account when betting, I don't expect you write out your entire strategy, obviously.

>>60530239 (OP)
tennis, mainly i just do 1st set bets. most american sports leagues are rigged beyond belief so i don't touch them.

>>60530243
>1st set bets
Like, you watch the first set, see how each player performs, and place a bet based on that?

>>60530239 (OP)
the key to profitably sports betting is to look for events where the probability being priced in is either over/underrepresented
stop thinking about the odds as -150 -- convert all odds to %'s; having the odds as -150, +200 etc is the way the bookies get you to turn your brain off
>pic related
so for -150, 150 / 250 = 60% implied probability
then assess the event and see whether or not you think there actually is 60% probability
for statistics, the general minimum sample size you want to look at is 30 events
so for example, NBA basketball, I see that such-and-such player has scoring 15+ points at -150; to take this bet, you want this player to be scoring 15+ points more than 60% of the time over the last 30 games
look up their stat history and count the number of games that they scored 15 or higher over the last 30 games, divide this number by 30; if they did it 18 times, the pricing is fair at -150; if they did it less than 18 times advantage is to the bookie, if they did it more than 18 times advantage is to you
Only place bets when the advantage is to you - bookies are pretty accurate for the most part, where they don't offer -150 (60%) if the player has done it 20 out of 30 times (66.6%) -- in general, the advantage you will find will be 2% or less
this is the core of the analysis, comparing real event occurrence rate to the probability the bookie is offering
you can do this for practically any odds being offered
>O/U for player is 20 -110 (52.3%); out of the last 30 games, how many times did the player score above 20?
>If this number is >16 = take the over (16 / 30 = 53.3%) If this number is <16 = take the under
then, after doing this core analysis, factor in everything else that may affect the event occurrence - there are a million things you can factor in
eg.
>is the game being played at home, or away?
(then look at the last 30 games home / away and come up with the occurrence rate % for this variable)

>>60530430
you may find that a player over the last 30 games total both home and away has scored above 15 points 65% of the time; but over the last 30 home games, only scored above 15 55% of the time; you wouldn't want to take a -150 bet for 15+, as there would then be 5% advantage to the bookie
>is the game being played on turf vs grass?
look at game history for games played on turf vs grass
>who is injured on both sides? what are the stats of the players who are injured on a minutes played basis vs the player who will be their substitution on a per minute basis
if you don't look at it as a per minute basis, your analysis will be incorrect; think of it like if you have a 2nd string player now starting who normally only gets 15 minutes and averages 6 points a game is now starting / expected to play 30 minutes, a bookie will often have their 6 points average as the baseline for the odds they offer, when naturally with double the minutes they will score much higher than their average
>when the teams played against each other last, which player was defending which player in man-to-man coverage
for example, you may have found that a player has been shooting 2+ 3 pointers with 65% occurrence rate over the last 30 games with odds offered at -150 (60%) advantage to you; however, the last time these teams played, the best defender on the opposing team sat on this player on the perimeter the whole game and didn't allow them to shoot any 3s; you may rethink making this bet (look at previous game film to see this)
>compare team stats (eg. fast break points / fast break points allowed / points scored / points allowed / offense ranking vs defense ranking; there are a million team stats to compare)
for example, you might see a game where a team has -150 odds of moneyline; however, the opposing team is #1 in fast break points, and the -150 odds team is #16 in allowing fast break points; you may want to consider betting on the underdog because they have fast break advantage

>>60530239 (OP)
that's a man

>>60530467
use your core analysis as the baseline; think of it all in implied probabilities vs actual event occurrence rate
then with all the other variables, adjust the occurrence rate; in general the other variables will have a smaller impact, but try to actually quantify the probability as a number, not just "feels"
eg. your thinking should be
>this player has scored 15+ 65% of the time the last 30 games; however, over the last 30 games a star player on their team was injured, where this player was forced to step-up and shoot a lot more; now that this injured player is returning to the game, the player probably will shoot less than they have over the last 30 games; perhaps they score 10% less than they have recently - how does this affect the analysis?
In general, many professional gamblers will say things like
>You should bet on obscure college basketball; know a smaller college basketball conference like the back of your hand; the number of bets being placed is much, much smaller, the analysis being done by the bookies is a lot less; it's the only consistent way to find an edge
OR
>Bet on baseball; it's the only sport where you have enough sample size to draw probability analysis from
however, in my experience, NBA basketball is also a great sport to bet on, because there are 82 games in a season; this is a large enough sample size to analyze
you can't really find advantage betting on a sport where you can only look through 5 recent occurrences; as said minimum 30, the more the better
a sport like NFL you can do all of the analysis that I described above and try to find an edge, the problem is that a season is only 17 games; if you try to circumvent this by looking at previous seasons, there is *some* value in doing this; however there is a big difference between teams from one year to the next -- someone who averaged X yards last season may now do very differently this season, because the offensive line player who was blocking for them the most was traded

>>60530252
no the bet is only on the 1st set.

>>60530430
for nba you should also take into account things like
>how much rest have they gotten between the last game and this game
>how did x player do when they faced y team last time
>then check the time slot of the game, does this player hate the 1pm games? or are they consistent regardless of the time of game.

>>60530239 (OP)
AI won

>>60530239 (OP)
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>>60530430
>>60530495
>>60530467
Is this ChatGPT? Still useful, thanks.

>>60530607
no, it's not chatGPT. just autism.
zoomers today have no concept of writing a paragraph themselves..
when trying to come up with other variables to add/subtract from the core analysis, you could use chatGPT as a good brainstorm tool
>Give me a list of 50 variables bookies use to assess probabilities for moneyline for NBA basketball

would it be profitable to bet based on esoteric dreams? for example if i dreamed who would be in the next super bowl

would $1000 dollars on the AFC/NFC champ each net me a good return or is it not even worth it?

>>60530653
do your dreams have a track record of turning into reality? if so can you dream me with a super hot wife that doesn't complain and can cook?

>>60530632
>zoomers today have no concept of writing a paragraph themselves.
Sorry, I have seen a genuine discussion on this board since 2019. I am surprised that we still have genuine people on this board.

>>60530239 (OP)
I know people that make money betting on Counter Strike matches, iirc he said that they alternate maps based on preferences. For example if Team 1 picked the map and won; team 2 gets longer odds because they're down in the series; however it's their turn to choose the map for game 2 so they should win because it's a map they excel at. I've never tried this strategy but he said it worked for him.

All the professional sports leagues are rigged as fuck and I don't touch them; especially niggerhoop and niggercollide.

more thoughts on how I like to assess moneyline bets
you don't really have the same ability to look through game history to have a 30 sample size, as teams often only play each other 2-4 times a season (and then teams are wildly different in composition from year to year)
so I will look at the last month of games for each team, identify which games they won / lost against which teams, whether they won / lost home or away; the main goal is to identify games that teams should have won but lost & games that they should have lost but won
imo once you start going further back than the last month the data becomes a lot less valuable; often you will find that teams will have a very rough start to the season, but for the last month they may have the best record in the league
these are ideal teams to bet on as underdogs, because the stats / rankings skew the implied probability to the higher rank team
eg. there's a team that has a 15-17 record going against a team with a 20-12 record; however the 15-17 team lost 11 out of their 17 in the opening of the season, and only 6 recently while the 20-12 won all their beginning games but are more 50-50 for the last month
You should also factor in back-to-back games as mentioned above, another good factor is counting the number of games that they've been on the road
eg. there's a team that they've been playing away for the last 4 games straight; they will be a lot more tired / just wanting to return home than it being their first or second game on the road
According to some stat papers I've read, the back-to-back disadvantage is actually not bad for the home team. If a team played at home yesterday, and now play at home again the following day, they actually perform better in the 2nd game than they did in the first. However, if a team is playing back-to-back, and having to travel / play away for the 2nd game, then the back-to-back does hurt their probability of winning

>not using the fact that matches are rigged to make easy money
'upsets' are 90% fake.
The betting companies control the industry and pay these teams, owners and individual players good money to throw a game they should win.
This is how they make huge amounts of money from what should be easy matchups anyone can do a 2x on.
Also masonic symbolisms and events aka why the raptors won the championship back in 2019 for the canadian mason mob.

>>60530430
>>60530467
>>60530495
>>60530632
Did you major in math or are you just an autodidact? Sports don't really interest me, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on other prediction markets like current events/polymarket (which does interest me), or even crypto/stocks in general. When it boils down to it investing is just applied probability theory (real investing that makes you money, not 'buy high sell low' like this board does).

Thanks in advance anon.

>>60531822
I remember posting this picture when making my Kleros slop threads. Biz is a small place.