What the fuck is supposed to happen when JPOW cuts rates? Wouldn't it signal that he is panicking about something, meaning the market crashes on rate cuts, again?

>>60545196 (OP)
You best start believing in soft landings, Anon. You're in one!

>>60545222
I bet in 2001 and 2008 they believed that

>>60545196 (OP)
>it's different this time

>>60545196 (OP)
Yes.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/79103/us-near-term-forward-spread

>>60545350
....but according to your own graph, the market shot up like a rocket for 15 straight years, minus some hiccups during COVID and Bidenflation, once they cut rates.
Markets are forward looking

itll probably play out the same way the dot com bubble did.

You chart casually ignores the crash after 2020

>>60545514
It shot up since the 1980s to 2000, then a dead decade, then it shot up again. Same thing happened before that time span. Now it's crash & dead decade time again.

>>60545677
and it ignores that they don't want that zero interest anymore, they want to go back to the old times forever.

>>60545350
>2001 and 2008
You were like -4 and 3 years old I bet. Sit down, boyo.
Cute lines though.

>>60545680
Zirp is awful because there's no room to react

>>60545801
Not just that, the closer to zero on the scale you go the more fucked the math gets due to relativity. If you started a business in a 0.25% environment and years later it went to 0.50%, your debt service just doubled even though it's only 0.25%bps. That would be the same as hiking 4.5% today, relatively.

For some reason the fed just does 25bps intervals even though they could easily make it much more granular and cut 12bps or 6bps or even fractions of a bps most likely

Really the lower values make sense for an institution moving literal trillions, scale should drive the costs down

>>60545196 (OP)
>when JPOW cuts rates
He isn't though

>>60545196 (OP)
>S&P500
>still believes in the jewish evergrowing stock market scam
>doesn't buy good crypto (BTC/XMR), real estate in cheap countries, silver and gold
>invests all his available money in S&P
NGMI

>>60545196 (OP)
JPow won't cut and it's better this way, because it paves the way for the next chair to do mass cuts in 2026.
Next inflation report and FED decision will almost completely be ignored on the higher timeframe.

The market knows that there will be a spike in inflation due to tariffs.
The market knows Powell won't cut, but it's also known that there will be a new chair.

As for picrel, you're forgetting that cuts usually come with an economical crisis and at the time of cuts, they have already been priced in.
Not by the real economy, but by the markets. Last ECB rate cuts for example did nothing to the EU markets.

>>60545196 (OP)
>Wouldn't it signal panicking
Not necessarily. It's all about the narrative, the jawboning, the forward guidance.

>>60546554
>The market knows that there will be a spike in inflation due to tariffs
This is how you spot a retard. Retards think tariffs are inflationary, when it's a one time price raise and not a sustained one, therefore it isn't inflation. Quite on the contrary, as wages (w) don't increase to offset the price raise (p) therefore real wages (w/p) go lower, public consumer money decreases, unemployment goes up as opportunity cost decreases and as consquence inflation goes down. (Basic phillips and beveridge curve will tell you this correlation) Why? Because companies have nowhere to recirculate this money and public money mass, contracts. Therefore, tariffs are deflationary. But arguing with retards is non-fruitful anyway.

>>60545196 (OP)
>>60545222
>>60545350
>>60545413
>>60545505
TO EVERYBODY IN THIS THREAD:
forget about all this bullshit about confidence, faith in america, the music, the game etc...
This is about math now. This is about the long end yields jumping, and it's about who around the world is standing when the dollar is having a tough time; and to be honest with you the only place any of us in the golden billion want to be is in either North America or Europe...
The Fed WILL cut rates, and that will make rates go higher; not only will the long rates go up, but the USA will be financing short term, which means that even though we will get juiced down to probably like 2% on the front end, we will eventually have so much spending and issuance in the front end that it will also rise.
This is mechanical now. The question is who around the world will fuck up harder even though they have economies that produce more and consume less, and it's getting pretty tough to see the light anywhere else.