Thread 60554747 - /biz/ [Archived: 783 hours ago]

Anonymous ID: Mx2iFLsi
6/27/2025, 5:27:34 PM No.60554747
ppmad
ppmad
md5: a6890ee160b7f472eca84a3705abbcbb🔍
Why the fuck is long term debt not being bought?

Im looking at TLT and Vanguard 20+ Year Euro for EU (im from EU). Both still crushed after the increase of interest rates from 0% to 4%.

The ECB has lowered rates, but the TLT equivalent (like I said, the Vanguard 20+) has not gone up. I bought it at 145€ and it's at 142€. What the fuck is going on?

The FED is still laging cutting rates, but we all know they are going down in september most likely, and that will start the path towards lowering them. So why isn't the market outrunning this and thus the TLT should be going up? but it's still sucking under $90. The fuck?

When will this go up? If nobody wants to buy the debt, then what happens? this cannot bagholding to fucking 0 right? or just crab.

Are they going to print money and then buy the debt? If so when will this happen? I bought this as an hedge against the interest rates going down so I would have extra dry powder to buy cheap if there was a recession (panic cutting on a hard landing, same as 2001 and 2008) but so far im just bagholding these positions. If they land a soft landing then it will have been useless since you would have been better off in stocks/BTC.
Replies: >>60554764 >>60554865 >>60555272
Anonymous ID: R0Xbsreb
6/27/2025, 5:31:53 PM No.60554764
>>60554747 (OP)
Nobody believes government published inflation statistics anymore and nobody believes there will ever be a decrease in spending and money printing to juice assets.

Who the fuck wants to be locked in at 4% for 20 years when real inflation is going o stay at 20%? At the rate Trump is going the dollar might not even easier in twenty years. The only people buying these currently are the FED, which will keep speed running inflation.
Replies: >>60554816
Anonymous ID: GxpdCM1A
6/27/2025, 5:46:53 PM No.60554816
>>60554764
>muh drumph
This was the future we chose when we elected snakes that passed the fed reserve act under Wilson
Short of rescinding that bill and killing off the central bank, there is nothing else we could do
Replies: >>60554839
Anonymous ID: R0Xbsreb
6/27/2025, 5:56:27 PM No.60554839
1750168613046868m
1750168613046868m
md5: de3423f9fdbd6ccd6e3f8a570f641bd7🔍
>>60554816
He could start by not implementing retarded tariffs against countries holding our bonds, causing them to dump them at a discount and drying up demand outside of the fed purchasing them with fake money.

Or by not pushing for trillion of dollars in tax cuts while cutting spending on the middle class, turning GDP negative and further reducing anyone's belief that the dollar won't be worthless in 20 years. But yeah totally not his fault, fellow fell for it again award winner.
Anonymous ID: fACCYr+/
6/27/2025, 6:09:34 PM No.60554865
>>60554747 (OP)
>Why the fuck is long term debt not being bought?
Cause it's trash but the FED will buy it if need be. We're witnessing a financial nuclear explosion. It seems slow now but in hindsight I think it will be "duh" moment. I'm still trying to figure it out myself. There's so many moving parts.
The system just can't sustain bond or treasury yields much above what they are now, but without intervention they will spike.
Even though your hypothesis is correct, TLT seems fairly dangerous as a long or mid term position.
Anonymous ID: 5KaU/EnF
6/27/2025, 7:56:19 PM No.60555272
>>60554747 (OP)
If you bought 20 years for 4% then hold it and don't try to dump it on the bigger retard. Looks like many people are like you and just planned to dump them.