Is the 'four year cycle' really just a silent pact by whales and experienced traders to pile into Bitcoin and dump on retail at the same time every four years

>>60604960 (OP)
I mean, if it works...

>>60604960 (OP)
it's caused by price compression. whenever people get really excited about bitcoin two things happen - one, people who own it cling to it tightly because every day it increases in value, making them richer. two, people who want to get in on this daily-getting-richer thing start to buy. because there is no one selling this "compresses" the rate at which price increases to meet demand. That generates the exponential "parabolic" increases which only last a few weeks. This process pushes the price much higher than it really should be, which causes those previously unwilling to sell to be willing to do so. The coiled-spring that the compression created quickly dissipates and the price drops quickly, typically over-correcting. after a few years the halvening starts the process again by reducing new supply.

>>60605025
shut the fuck up

>>60605025
This. It's an IQ test to figure it out from the pattern. Took me three cycles to figure it out, this will be my second cycle and will take me to mid 7-figs.

>>60604960 (OP)
The four year cycle happens because of halvings. We solved this eons ago but newfags for some reason have recently eschewed this. Cut the marginal supply of any commodity in half instantaneously and you will generate a supply shock. Supply curve shift expresses in price. Not hard, markets overshoot, hence blow off tops and falling back to a stable but higher level until the next time.

>>60605075
It's pretty clear Satoshi didn't intend for massive supply shocks like this, should there have been more gradual drop offs? Like instead of halvings, 20% drops more frequently? Or were halvings necessary to drive adoption by getting in the news repeatedly?

This time is different, it's up only from here on out