>>60638699 (OP)Assuming that the 4 year cycle will hold indefinitely, or even just for 15 more years, is somewhat lazy.
Can you even justify this? Historically the justification was the halving, but this obviously doesn't have as much of an impact anymore, and its impact will continue to decline.
The self-fulfilling prophecy angle ("everybody expects the 4 year cycle to keep repeating forever, so it will continue to do so") may be upheld by old whales and retail traders from earlier cycles, but institutional treasury reserves and other investors continue to gain influence and are unlikely to follow this trend.
If you're going to pull in credit/interest rate/stock cycles, those occasionally follow 4 year style cycles as well, but they are nowhere near as stable as this.