>Bullrun peak is often in the post-halving year and pre midterm election year
>FED barely lowered rates in % terms
>Usually FED cuts take 6 months for liquidity to hit the crypto market
>Cuts seem to be in order for september
Is this cycle different bros? Will we get a rally this fall like every past cycle?
I can already see people talking about supercycle and this bullrun taking longer to deflate.
FED watch predicts three 25bps cuts by december 2025 but how is the bullrun going to be over if the FED keeps lowering rates into 2026-2027?

>>60737161 (OP)
FED significantly cutting rates usually coincides with a recession.
10 vs 2 yield spread also looks like a recession incoming

>>60737161 (OP)
>I can already see people talking about supercycle
Incredibly bearish. They introduce these myths late in the cycle to make everyone bagholders

>>60737195
Everything will probably recess other than LINK, precious metals, heavily-shorted commodities, and maybe BTC / XMR.

Can’t imagine a different scenario during a mass tokenization transition. Stablecoins and the GENIUS act will probably save the USD from its impending dollar milkshake theory intl demand rugpull with the transition and scaling of BRICS.

Chainlink will connect all of it on a global compliance system, but money/currency, trade, logistics, etc. are going to become more regionalized rather than globalized. Neoliberal economics are inefficient, outdated, and pollute the environment. The global warming narrative is a fat scam, but pollution is very real.

>>60737161 (OP)
I said since years that everything is frontrunned.
Bear crab for the rest of the year and then pump would fit my theory well

>>60737239
All of crypto will dump with a recession. No ifs or buts about it. It's THE primary risk-on asset of this financial cycle.

>>60737195
Unemployment has been at 4.2 for a whole year now with most employment created coming from the government. It is a scary situation indeed. Biden printed a trillion dollars to hide the recession and now Trump has done something similar with his big beautiful bill. The only component missing is the FED devaluing the dollar to aleviate the impact of this new crisis.
>>60737203
I know but this time we might get a stagflation crisis where liquidity just slows down instead of being sucked dry from the market. In that scenario BTC might drop 30%-50% over a longer period of time instead of the usual 90% at the bottom of the bear market.
>>60737239
First, LINK follows ETH. It needs smartcontracts to actually have utility so you can't have LINk going up while ETH and other L1s crash.
Second, LINK is great infraestructure but you need to integrate crypto into the economy first. We are many many years from all companies/civilians using blockchain technology in their economic activies.

>>60737161 (OP)
They frontran it all last year. Everyone is expecting Q4 to be bullish which means it won't be.

>>60737282
Saylor will be forced liquidated in a crisis. And smart money will be dumping this down HARD before he gets a chance to sell anything.

>>60737239
token not needed though

>>60737291
I don't think he will be liquidated. He has already survied a bear market with him buying at the top like any of us retards would have done lmao.
What worries me about Saylor is him not wanting to release proof of reserves. If I was an obsessed orange pilled madman I would display my BTC addresses for everyone to see.

This cycle IS different:
> a good 90% (at least) of the money coming in this cycle was strictly from institutions who are only interested in btc/eth, retail stomped their foot refusing to return to crypto this time around hence no mega alt seasons
> relentless fud (ie tariffs) keeps pressing price action downwards, and being on the verge of a recession doesn't make matters any better
> there are a bajillion different alts now which spreads liquidity way too thin, hence all of the limp dick pump then mega steroid bobo dumps you keep seeing everywhere

tldr; shit macros, previous bear market trauma on the normies and alt oversaturation caused this cycle to be dogshit

>>60737239
this is exactly what I have been thinking would happen for years, along with some of the other blockchain low cap alts that will be relevant mooning.

>>60737597
Its called a melt up and were about to top out already.