- JP Morgan: A closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $120-$130 per barrel

This would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%.

The last time we saw US inflation at 5% was in March 2023, when the Fed was aggressively hiking rates.

Kobeissi Letter

Philip Pilkington -
Imo this is an optimistic assessment. But 5% CPI means UST yields start going to bankruptcy levels.