>>63912095>air superiority chances?Overall, terrible.
BBC have some 1.5k combat airframes, good data is hard to come by but nobody thinks they have less than a thousand or so just in the airforce and the naval aviation is another 250-500 airframes.
I think the naval aviation can outnumber Ukraine by itself.
That said, Russian air defences are popping like champagne on ladies night, their AWACs are having a very bad war and Ukraine is speed-running integrated systems warfare so it's not a direct match-up.
Russia should be able to just throw everything in the air and get tangible results but they don't like risking pilots who are usually connected people and airframes, almost all of which are archeotech now. This leads to smaller surgical incursions which Ukraine has a tech advantage for and can potentially achieve local superiority in.
If everything Russia had strapped on some a2a and some a2g and flew west, Ukraine's air defences would be flattened and much of their airforce destroyed, either in the air or on the ground. The wave of missiles and drones sent through to Kyiv during and after this would mostly get through and cause mass devastation.
The price of doing so would be to leave Russian aviation in ashes though and since Ukraine hasn't even received their full allotment of aircraft, they'd be continuously replacing the airframes you destroyed while Russia would have to beg China to sell them J-10s for oil or something.