Who the fuck actually won thing this thing? Everyone seems to have come out of it worse for wear and dissatisfied with the result.

Israel

>Iranian nuclear program not actually completely destroyed
>massive amount of political capital expended
>30 people killed, several thousand wounded, nearly all of them civilians
>non-trival infrastructure damage
>ABM defenses may or may not have performed below expectations depending on who you ask

Iran

>IRGC leadership practically exterminated, literal centuries' worth of brainpower lost
>Iranian Air Force effectively destroyed on the ground
>at least 50% of incredibly expensive missile stockpiles that took nearly 20 years to build up expended or destroyed
>proxies proved almost totally useless
>Ayatollah Khamenei humiliated and revealed to be impotent in the face of Western military might
>non-zero chance that the Islamic Republic will be toppled via popular revolt at some point in the future

Trump

>made a fool of himself, an even bigger one than usual.
>went back on a key campaign promise and drew the ire of a voting bloc who once uncritically supported him

>>64019955 (OP)
>Who the fuck actually won thing this thing?
The Share Holders

Play clown games, win clown prizes.

What? Obviously Israel.
>Iranian nuclear program not actually completely destroyed
Same as the last several times they've struck it. It can actually be useful to keep them around as visible opposition, so you don't want to completely wipe it out; just constantly kneecap it so it never delivers.
>massive amount of political capital expended
None that matter. Sure libs seethe, but the power where it counts is backing them same as ever.
>30 people killed, several thousand wounded, nearly all of them civilians
Not actually a big deal. Tragedy for the families, absolutely, but politically a nothingburger. Useful if anything, because it causes the Israeli public to swing right, which they otherwise might not have done because bibi is bent as fuck and some people get sick of that.
>non-trivial infrastructure damage
Totally trivial, its not like a dam was blown or anything.

>>64019977
I’m Israeli and from what I remember the worst strategic damage was from the power plant in Haifa and the Weizmann institute (Have some friends doing a doctorate there). Weizmann is very important for Israeli scientific research and some important projects were destroyed (not related to defense though)
Also there was a 40 story building in the Bursa in Ramat Gan that will have to be demolished due to the missile hitting it quite in the middle.
Also a logistical building in Glilot base were hit, but it probably contained uniform pants of whatever, not anything too important. Lmk if I missed anything
Most importantly, apparently the cafe gardens at Weismann are permanently closed, shame because I wanted to do my wedding there :c

>>64019955 (OP)
Apparently some military bases in Israel were hit, nothing catastrophic but there is for sure damage Israel is not revealing to the public.
The missiles themselves are a demonstration that Iran is capable of destroying Israel if they got a hold of nuclear weapons. Even if 5 would get through it would mean end of Tel Aviv and Haifa.

>>64020044
>>64019955 (OP)
On the other side the total Air dominance by Israel forces and F-35 was far greater than anyone would expect I guess, Russia and China have a lot to think about. Probably gives ammo to hawks proposing military action or no fly zone over Ukraine.

>>64019955 (OP)
Israel, but it was a qualified victory. They successfully wiped out a huge proportion of the Iranian leadership and managed to convince the Americans to directly attack the Iranian nuclear program in a way that both set them back by at least months and also ensured any attempt to restart it would be extremely obvious. That said, they had to cut back some last minute attacks to appease Trump, and regime change still seems a remote possibility, although that was always a long shot and not the primary objective.

>massive amount of political capital expended
They burn more political capital every single time a cabinet member even hints at their future plans for Gaza than they would have done if they'd kept hitting Iran until September. No one that matters cares about anything that happens to Iran short of regime change, even Russia and China.

As for
>Iran
Leadership is beyond fucked, authority in the region is almost completely destroyed, population is still restive, and further progress towards acquiring a viable deterrent/Tel Aviv annihilator is hampered and controversial within the regime. It's not fatal, but it's still a bad defeat.

>Trump
Pissed off large parts of his own political coalition, but honestly, how can a man be defeated when he has no concept of what a victory would even looks like?

>>64020044
>The missiles themselves are a demonstration that Iran is capable of destroying Israel if they got a hold of nuclear weapons. Even if 5 would get through it would mean end of Tel Aviv and Haifa.
So if Iran wants to nuke Israel and in turn be turned into a glowing pile of molten glass, they still need about 50 nuclear warheads as about 90% were intercepted, they can't just use 5 and hope those are the ones that pass

>>IRGC leadership practically exterminated, literal centuries' worth of brainpower lost
a bunch of old fart generals that can be replaced easily
>>Iranian Air Force effectively destroyed on the ground
you mean those 2 tomcats?
>>at least 50% of incredibly expensive missile stockpiles that took nearly 20 years to build up expended or destroyed
this is why israel and the u.s. stopped, right? because iran ran out of missiles, not because israel ran out of interceptors. absolutely delusional cope
>proxies proved almost totally useless
yeah except the us navy got cucked by the houthis
>>Ayatollah Khamenei humiliated and revealed to be impotent in the face of Western military might
the ayatollahs regime is now more powerful than ever. no regime change, no revolution, not even a hint of trouble for the government. by the end, israel was bombing prisons to get something going on the ground, to no avail

iran still has a functioning nuclear program, still has missile capabilities, still has an intact government
israel didnt achieve anything long term, just bombed people and pissed off the population, made the iron dome look like a joke, and made themselves be hated even more than before.

iran

israel suffered far too much economical and infrastructure damage. and if america didn't bankroll their entire military, the damage would have been catastrophic, not just bad. the us will also probably be paying for all the rebuilding.

>>64020083
continuing

israel [and the us] failed to achieve any of their stated objectives.

it was a decisive iranian victory, and they didn't even start it.

>>64019955 (OP)
>>at least 50% of incredibly expensive missile stockpiles that took nearly 20 years to build up expended or destroyed
From what I understand the missile stock is still significant, but they destroyed missile launch vehicles and obstructed exits from underground bases

I did. I lived to see B2s dropping bombs on Iran. That was one of my win conditions.

>>64019955 (OP)
Iran won. For the first time since the 60s, an enemy of Israel could launch retaliatory attacks via air into Israel proper AND cause meaningful damage. This is despite the vaunted Israeli Air Force and Iron Dome. Cheap drones have upended conventional warfare. It is no longer a one sided match. Israel no longer have the ability to launch full scale attacks and expect to be invulnerable in return. This has huge domestic political ramifications in Israel, the so-called "only democracy" in the Middle East.

>>64020072
>>Iran
>Leadership is beyond fucked, authority in the region is almost completely destroyed
They should have killed the Ayatollah. Nobody else matters in the government/military.

Short term: Israel
- Iranian nuclear program set back several years
- Iranian military capacity (including proxies) severely reduced / literally blown the fuck out

Long term: Iran
- Nuclear program not completely destroyed, they can continue to try ("and this time, dig it 500 meters deeper")
- Any hints of revolution/rebellion snuffed out before it even happened, regime seems stable for now. The necessity of acquiring nukes is now 500 times clearer. Be Kim Jong or get Khadaffi'd

The interesting part will be the "IRGC leadership practically exterminated, literal centuries' worth of brainpower lost" part. Losing experience is definitely bad... But it also gets rid of old-fashioned ideas (like using proxies all over the place - that turned out to be worthless lmao) and might lead to someone with innovative ideas to get into a position of power.

Paranoia in Iran is definitely going up 1000% though. I expect them to get much quieter and sneakier. But then again, these are sandpeople. Loud (and ineffective) is their inherent way.

>>64020081
>>64020083
>>64020087
>yeah lots of guys died but they weren't important
>yeah we lost lots of shit but those were old rustbuckets
>yeah the houthis totally humiliated the americans by attacking random civilian ships
>yeah israel ran out of interceptors for the 3rd time
>yeah there was no trouble at all for the government, it didn't collapse immediately therefore its stronger than ever
>if not for american alien weapons then we would have demolished them!!!
>yeah only 48 of our hundreds of missiles launched actually hit israel that means iron dome which isn't even an ABM system is crap
Abrap cope is the most boring cope there is, at least russians come up with funny and interesting things (gesture of goodwill is my favorite) instead of spewing the same bullshit every time something happens.

>>64019955 (OP)
Iran got stomped in a completely lopsided and humiliating beatdown, but a non-zero number of Jews were hurt or killed, therefore: overwhelming Muslim victory.

>>64019955 (OP)
The ironic part is if the USA and Israel et al did literally nothing after 1979 to Iran the Ayatollahs would have been out of power decades ago. They can only exist because of a credible external threat

I was manifesting Israel getting destroyed.
All the kino webms made my heart warm up with childlike joy.
A few weekerinos before i manifested the Jerusalem fires by visualizing israel being engulfed en flames.

>>64020540
kek

>>64020509
>Any hints of revolution/rebellion snuffed out before it even happened, regime seems stable for now. The necessity of acquiring nukes is now 500 times clearer. Be Kim Jong or get Khadaffi'd

It almost made me shake my head in disbelief when Israelis were proposing a regime change, claiming people on the streets would support it.
Who would trust Israel with good intentions after the genocide in Gaza?
Plenty of Iranians probably hate the regime, but nobody is stupid enough to trust Israel

>>64020531
Moishe, just accept you guys didn't achieve most of you objectives and let it go.

>>64020729
When and why was the stereotypical Jewish name switched from "Schlomo" to "Moishe?"

>>64019955 (OP)
Israel came out ahead and it's a big W for Bibi in Israel. Trump joining in was also so popular they had his image up at Tel Aviv Pride (only in Israel...). Perhaps the most important thing is that the U.S. and Israel teamed up together in a military strike directly for the first time. That had never happened before. People tend to focus on the strictly Clancy-chat military side of things, and don't take in the bigger picture.

>>64020044
Yeah. I'm not Israeli, but Israel is fairly leaky (in a "word gets out on the street" kind of way), and the word is that some military bases got hit, but I dunno how much damage there was. I doubt it was very much. But I remember watching the livestreams of the missile barrages coming in and seeing what looked like ground impacts off in the distance, which we'd never hear about.

>>64020509
Iran is now trying to co-opt Persian nationalism. That used to be a very un-IRI thing. It was something exiled monarchists would tap into, while the clerics have their own revolutionary pan-Islamic ideology. You can make an analogy to the USSR or China modifying communism while rehabilitating traditional Russian or Chinese historical figures as a way of trying to stabilize it, and also cope with some weaknesses in the ideology to motivate people. There are pics out there of these new billboards up in Tehran with images of ancient Persian kings shooting arrows.

>>64020531
There's a lot of cope because Iran did NOT want to get bombed. The fact that it happened at all is a problem. But Iran played the cards it had. Their basic strategy was to deplete Israeli interceptors to force Israel to rely more on the U.S. to back them up, because Israel doesn't produce enough of the interceptors on their own. This in turn makes Israel more subject to American pressure. Iran can't actually stop Israel from flying over Iran virtually unmolested, so their strategy was to hold out until the U.S. decided "okay that's enough" and rang the bell.

>>64020675
>Plenty of Iranians probably hate the regime, but nobody is stupid enough to trust Israel
This goes into why they're tapping into Persian nationalism now. It's like, even if you don't like the clerics, Israel bombing them feels like 9/11 just happened. Israel blew up apartment buildings in Tehran while going after those IRGC guys and nuclear scientists and they just had to take it, so it was a real shock.

The IRI has a lot of committed supporters who are willing to die for it. If you look south of Tehran near Khomeini's tomb (which is a massive building), there's an even more massive necropolis with God-only-knows how many graves, a lot of them from the Iran-Iraq War, and there's a whole cult around visiting these shrines on holidays. The clerics who really won the revolution were not simple-minded fanatics, but seminary scholars who had a whole theory of a Shia Islamic religious-political order. It's like if Sister Miriam in Alpha Centauri was a country, they try to run the country like one big seminary.

One of the drivers behind the Iranian revolution in the 1970s was also cultural authenticity. People don't understand this, but it was like hippies in the 1960s growing their hair out and trying to live authentically. It seems weird to compare that to Iran, and that "I'm so authentic, man" stuff can also be a bunch of bullshit, but it'll make sense when you think about it.

>>64019955 (OP)
Israel won. Obviously.

>>64019955 (OP)
Me. I won the war.

>>64021399
Well done anon. Have you told your mum? She'll be chuffed.

>>64020044
So you are saying that ny Israel preemptive strikes are wholly justified?

>>64021403
Yes, she gave me a cookie and let me play video games until 9:00!

>>64021405
Well it's the M.E where everyone is always plotting to kill someone so technically every strike is preemptive.

>>64021407
>Pull off a tactical bombing campaign, with decapitation strikes, defeat multiple ICBM swarm attacks and get to stay up late (with cookie). What a lad.

>>64019955 (OP)
>Who the fuck actually won thing this thing?
Israel by all means. Iranian army leadership is gone, their AA is gone gone and all Iran could muster, was to hit Haifa.

>>64020423
>AND cause meaningful damage
may we see it?

>>64020423
>Cheap drones have upended conventional warfare.
>Israeli air defenses only got penetrated by a handful of Medium range ballistic missiles, not Shaheds

>Jews have to outlaw publishing videos of the Missiles
>Jews have to stop the war just 12 days in
>Jews still being warmongering as usual

I think the evisceration of Hezbollah and the fall of Assad are wins for Israel. Hamas went from invading Israel to begging for food.

>>64020675
>It almost made me shake my head in disbelief when Israelis were proposing a regime change, claiming people on the streets would support it.

To be fair, Iranian diaspora who are

1. Largely descendants of people who fled the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War (i.e. people who have absolutely every reason to despise the Islamic Republic)

2. Going to have a disproportionate amount of influence in the West owing to their being the public face of Iranian people as whole


have been clamoring for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic for decades, so you could very easily develop an incorrect impression of how Iranian people in Iran itself feel if you were only listening to them.

>>64021399

Good on you buddy!

>>64020047
>total Air dominance by Israel forces and F-35 was far greater than anyone would expect I guess

My man, this is Iran. The only people surprised that it was basically a rape in the night are people who are just now learning about how bad Iran has it.

>>64019977
>It can actually be useful to keep them around as visible opposition, so you don't want to completely wipe it out; just constantly kneecap it so it never delivers.
That's not useful to literally anyone, especially a fucking rogue state that's losing support each and every single day. Israel's future is absolutely fucked.

>>64020509

This, Israel set back the program but also pretty much guaranteed that nothing short of toppling the Ayatollahs is going to stop it for good.

>>64020470
Why'd they kill him? He's the perfect retard that does nothing but play opposition and get vilified while if he gets killed he turnes into a martyr and either actually unhinged terrorists or actually competent reformists take the reins.

>>64020873
>only in Israel...

lol no

Why do Arabs reject reality so they can win in their head every time? Will they ever realize it's why they're still shitholes?

They say there are no winners in war, and very frequently that's pure red meat emotional appeal pacifist bullshit. But in this case, it's arguably true. Absolutely everyone came out of this looking bad. The Israelis look like jerks, the Iranians look impotent, and Trump looks like a moron.

>>64020081
>a bunch of old fart generals that can be replaced easily

You can't replace experience, and a lot of these guys were veterans of the Iran-Iraq War or even the Imperial Iranian Army, representing the last of Iran's Western-trained officers.

>you mean those 2 tomcats?

Iran only has 20 or so Tomcats still operational so that represented at least 10+% of their entire fleet.

>not even a hint of trouble for the government

Nigger, the decapitation strikes attack was only possible thanks to disgruntled Iranians cooperating with Israeli intelligence.

>>64022104
>Hamas went from invading Israel to begging for food.

Hamas doesn't beg for food. Hamas gorge themselves while Palestinian civilians starve.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sk1kyrrlge

>>64023293
>Will they ever realize it's why they're still shitholes?

>>64020559
>manifesting
law of attraction practitioner in the wild?

>>64020931
>One of the drivers behind the Iranian revolution in the 1970s was also cultural authenticity. People don't understand this, but it was like hippies in the 1960s growing their hair out and trying to live authentically. It seems weird to compare that to Iran, and that "I'm so authentic, man" stuff can also be a bunch of bullshit, but it'll make sense when you think about it.

didn't the ayatollah create a fatwa specifically allowing trans surgeries and trans people because one of the hippies who fought for him during the revolution said they had gender dysphoria and requested this?

I gotta give it to Taco Don, he couldnt have picked a more universally hated pack of fuckers to bomb, except for Kony or Epstein or some shit like that

This thread smells like shawarma.

They say there are no winners in war, and usually that's pure red meat emotional appeal pacifist bullshit. But in this case, it's arguably true. Absolutely everyone came out of this looking bad. The Israelis look like jerks, the Iranians look impotent, and Trump looks like an idiot.

>>64020081
>a bunch of old fart generals that can be replaced easily

You can't replace experience, and a lot of these guys were veterans of the Iran-Iraq War or even the Imperial Iranian Army, representing the last of Iran's Western-trained officers.

>you mean those 2 tomcats?

Iran only has 20 or so Tomcats still operational so that represented at least 10+% of their entire fleet.

>not even a hint of trouble for the government

Nigger, the decapitation strikes attack was only possible thanks to disgruntled Iranians cooperating with Israeli intelligence.

>>64022104
>Hamas went from invading Israel to begging for food.

Hamas doesn't beg for food. Hamas gorge themselves while Palestinian civilians starve.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sk1kyrrlge
RPK-16 smol.png, 167KiB, 512x722

>>64023293
>Why do Arabs reject reality so they can win in their head every time?
wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_(sociological_concept)
>Will they ever realize it's why they're still shitholes?
Self-awareness has a minimum IQ threshold, which is the only reason /pol/turds still haven't committed sudoku.

>>64019955 (OP)
>New war
I know nothing about this but will bet $100 they are fighting over who owns a hill in a desolate part of the jungle or on who's side of the border a temple is.

>>64024706
The Israeli-Iranian conflict is a bit more complex than that, but the new Viet-Cambodia shit is exactly that.

>>64023285
>No you can't have a picture of the current POTUS next to a picture of Lincoln

>>64024731
I posted in the wrong thread. Pity. Everyone would owe me $100.

>>64023512
His first term he dropped MOABs on caves. His second term he dropped MOPs on tunnels. I'm just happy to see some of these really huge conventional weapons actually being used instead of passing their shelf life and being dismantled. At least we find out if they do what they say on the tin.

>>64020746
Schlomo was too ethnically charged

>>64020044
NOBODY who has even the slightest inkling of knowledge believes that ABM systems are going to be able to prevent nuclear strikes unless you are going to have <5 missiles launched at you. It's baffling to me that people think an intercept rate in the 85-90% range against waves of 50+ ballistic missiles is a failure. There is no question that if someone fires dozens of missiles at you in one go that some are going to get through, which is why (until the recent retarded golden dome nonsense) nobody builds more than ~100 total ICBM interceptors. Because it is understood that beyond a very small scale single digit launch by someone like North Korea that you can't stop them all. This is the exact reason why Israeli military planners are so obsessed with striking Iran before they can build nukes, they know that it is effectively impossible to stop incoming nukes that are part of a large salvo unless you get crazy lucky (in an Iran scenario) and manage to hit the 5-10 nuke carrying missiles that they have among the salvo assuming they blow their entire enriched stockpile load on one wave of nukes

>>64023512
>Taco
You got a loicence fer that cringe, mate?

>>64025285
Let me pose a counterpoint. Do you really think Iran would risk just mixing its precious few warheads in with a wave of general spam on generic missile systems? Especially with how poorly those missile systems have performed this past year? You're not wrong about Israeli motivations, they absolutely cannot let Iran start building nukes because of that calculus. At the same time, knowing that the response would be full counter value could Iran risk none of the missiles that matter getting through, or would they try and burn out all the interceptors (with corresponding loss of both stockpiles and launch capacity) in the hopes they could get them through later? It's easy enough if you assume they're a death cult or genuinely stupid enough to get high on their own supply but what if they aren't?

>>64019955 (OP)
Bibi, because he's still in power and therefore out of jail.

>>64019955 (OP)
Probably Iran, long term. In the short term, Israel won.

>>64021399

t.

>>64019955 (OP)
This war isn't finished but my guess is Israel will win. From now on every few months there will be another series of airstrikes destroying whatever Israeli intelligence found in Iran. Meanwhile there is ongoing to flip the regime with corruption, protests, bombs if necessary, isolation. Give it a few years like Syria. There will be a Iranian Jolani and - at that point Israel won.

Basically, it’s a draw. Israel and US did hugely more damage, but failed to complete their objectives — even if you consider that Iran’s nuclear program was likely already defunct. Iran failed to deter Israel or the US from systematically killing their leadership and destroying military targets, but that failure did not lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime. The IAF is too small to defeat a country by air power alone and the US is no longer involved in war and anything more than light bombing is off the table, so the Iranian regime will survive.

>>64020033
the thing that was hit in haifa was the refinery
out of 3 CDUs 2 remained operational so it really isn't a big deal
the third one is expected to be repaired by october
i don't know how important the research in the labs that were destroyed were

in glilot it's just a marlog
so yeah, uniforms and office supplies in a base like glilot
there were other bases hit
on sentinel 2 you can see a definite hit on camp Ben Ami
which is the center for heavy transport - a logistics base for trucks
some peripheral building on the north east corner
i never been there so i don't know what was there
but from street view it had old M50 trucks around it
so unlikely to be important

technically the ashdod power station was hit
but it hit the yard instead of the actual complex
damaging transformers with shrapnel and bursting several pipes
but considering operations were restored in under an hour that's wasn't a big deal either

>>64020509
>But it also gets rid of old-fashioned ideas (like using proxies all over the place - that turned out to be worthless lmao
This war proved the exact opposite though. Israel didn't dare act until they'd neutered Hezbollah.
Medium range ballistic missiles are just too expensive to build in the numbers you need to do real, strategic damage, so moving thousands of short range missiles to Lebanon was a good idea which worked as a deterrent for years and it would have continued to work if Mossad hadn't infiltrated both Iran and Hezbollah so badly.

>>64019961
That's a depiction of a 14 year old girl

>>64029082
Out of 10