One of their corpses got blown that far.

>>64032285 (OP)
Probs one of those recon and sab units

Under cover of night, small groups of 3-5 people move through areas with trees.

>>64032285 (OP)
they do constant infiltration attacks, some survive and dig in

if it's this far ahead and they can't quickly reinforce it, it'll probably get wiped. but now you see a good example of how their attacks work in practice. notice the grey zone on the map, the Ukrainian lines are far more porous than the solid color would suggest, all the open ground up to the first rows of houses is effectively no man's land

unless something changes significantly about the capabilities and political constraints imposed on either side, this war will continue in the same slow, predictable grind. Russians make lots of nearly suicidal probing attacks, most don't make it, but Ukrainians can't get them all. so eventually the Russians get the next treeline, the next block, the next hamlet. Ukrainian forward positions then get exposed to enfilade and rapid drone interdiction, they're forced to fall back another 1-3km. rinse and repeat.

>>64032355
forgot the picture

the grey zone probably doesn't have much coverage beyond FPVs, if the russians move fast or in the dark they can get through.

>>64032355
true, but also ukrop command is happy to sacrifice a lot of soldiers defending positions for far too long

>>64032285 (OP)
It's a railroad station. Have you never taken a train?

>>64032285 (OP)
Reminds me how the first Soviet troops to enter Budapest was a recon unit who took the morning tram along with commuting civilians.

The AFU should withdraw from Pokrovśk now before it's too late. Otherwise, it will be a bloodbath like the one in Bachmut or Vuhledar, which will have terrible long-term consequences for Ukraine, given the UA:RU KIA ratio of 1:1.8 according to Tatarigami. Hopefully, someone from the General Staff or Syrśký's entourage will read this and realize that I am 100% right.

>>64032444
I am Mykola from Kiev oblast and I concur with this statement.

>>64032285 (OP)

What will happen to our army in the coming years? Let's calculate and evaluate
1. What numbers were announced?

According to Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament from the defense committee, Ukraine mobilizes 30,000 every month.

The "official" number of SZCH, i.e. those registered by law enforcement, is about 16-19 thousand. Of these, again, according to the Prosecutor General's Office, a very small percentage is returned through "amnesty" mechanisms.

The official rate of losses, that is, the rate announced by the President, is unclear, because Zelensky mentioned only the dead, and did not name the prisoners and missing (now the main article of irretrievable losses on the battlefield). The estimated rate of losses according to Western press sources (The Economist, WSJ, Spiegel) is 5-8 thousand per month. To this can be added the same number of seriously wounded, who will be out of action for a long time or forever.

Thus, if we look at such figures, the quantitative composition of the Ukrainian army should either increase slightly or decrease slightly on a monthly basis.

2. What is reality?

Mobilizing 30,000 people probably doesn't happen every month, and it's quite possible that even 20,000 is a fairly successful indicator.

The amount of losses on the battlefield, indicated in foreign sources, can be left as is for now.

But the figure of 19 thousand deserters and those who voluntarily left the unit is clearly underestimated. Practices continue that prevent a more complete assessment of this phenomenon. First, due to a large amount of unnecessary paperwork, military units cannot formalize all cases of desertion that occurred in them, and therefore cannot properly form a report for law enforcement officers. Second, even if a report about desertion is properly formalized and sent to the State Bureau of Investigation, it is still very often not registered there, as required by the Criminal Procedure Code.

>>64032453


It even gets to the point that out of 10 desertions, criminal proceedings are registered in certain units only for 2. That is, in a particular unit, there are five times more real deserters from the army than shown in official statistics!

3. Perspective, pure hypotheses. It can be assumed quite conservatively that the monthly reduction of the army could be 10-15 thousand people, and it is happening despite the mobilization efforts of the CCK and the campaign to attract volunteers. This assumption has not yet received any official confirmation, but it will be quite difficult to refute it.

And another "pure hypothesis". It is not the paper million that is really fighting, that is really holding the front. In fact, at best, it is 400-500 thousand (of which a very small part is at zero). Or even 300 thousand. And thus we see that at this rate, another 2 years - and there will be no one left at the front.

4. What to do about it. Either start implementing a mobilization policy (now the state is not implementing it comprehensively, everything has been dumped on almost "ordinary" military personnel - officials of the Central Military Commission), or radically reduce losses, or make the army's combat capability depend not on quantity, but on quality. However, this is a separate, big topic.

In any case, 2 years is an optimistic scenario if we leave everything as it is.

>>64032447
Same, can't wait to be Nikolai again though. The fascist banderist regime stuck this made-up name on me.

>>64032453
>>64032454
Now this is cope.
And btw, Russia has much more deserters than Ukraine.

>>64032355
russia usually bombards the shit out of the defenders with bombs and indirect directed by drones. this is why they can get by with small teams of men capturing large areas. then the actual occupation forces move in.

>>64032453
>>64032454
I wish I'd saved some of Mandic's posts over the years. He was far more optimistic about Russia to say the least.

>>64032453
>>64032454
>namefag in 2025
Nothing you say matters lol

>>64032453
>>64032454
I ain't reading all that vatnik gibberish

>>64032447
I'm not a zigger, you morons, I just know a thing or two about military science. That's all. Fighting for every street and building, as in Bachmut, will never be worth it for Ukraine. Maybe Zelenśký or Jermak believe the battles of Bachmut and Vuhledar were worth it for political points, but from a military perspective, they were terrible. Because of the long battle in Bachmut in 2023, Ukraine lost its ability to launch a proper counterattack in the South. Because of Vuhledar, they lost the momentum to stop ziggers from advancing elsewhere in the Donećk region. It's just a matter of fact. The same goes for Krynky, although on a smaller scale, an absolutely unnecessaryEven the Kurśk operation was not successful, there were too many losses of manpower and equipment because they were overstretched and vulnerable to Russian drones and shells.

>>64032444
>given the UA:RU KIA ratio of 1:1.8
Yeah. 3 more years cumrade, and ukrop will be completely obliterated.