Thread 64111485

AIIIIIIIIIIIIIE GHOST OF QUEEF SAVE ME

>>64111485 (OP)
brown fag thinks couple KMs in 3.5 years is imppressive

>>64111485 (OP)
It's so over

>>64111485 (OP)
It's ~18km at the least at this point and the Russians are pushing reserves into the breach. For once this is an actual happening, but it does remain to be seen whether the Russians can actually exploit this breakthrough, or if they'll overextend.

>get baited into a salient
>HAAA GHOST OF QUEEF SAVE ME
>encirclement cuts you off
>PLEEEEASE DADDY PUTIN SAVE ME

>>64111497
>It's ~18km
optimistic

>>64111485 (OP)
>AIIIIII-CK!

Only one road left for Pokrovsk...

>>64111500
Russian recon elements have been spotted in Novotroitske and they're continuing on further North towards Novoyavlenka. That's 18km. The breakthrough is also potentially 10km wide, considering the villages the Russians have captured.

this will likely turn into nothing but it's funny to watch k froth, gnash, wail, vomit onions, hurl themselves at the wall, gnash again.
the last thread that posted this front lasted 50 minutes. mop mop.

>>64111498
>the ass tightens around the dick and pinches it off
>the enemy is now firmly trapped in our ass

>>64111485 (OP)
>>64111505
funny how zigger maps contradict each other

>>64111485 (OP)
>avdiivka still visible
lmao
still in donetsk oblast btw

>>64111522
a little more context

finally it's happening
the collapse of the front leading to an end of russian and ukrainian shit threads

imagine if they threaten all the highways leading to kramatorsk-sloviansk oh no no no

>>64111530
>collapse of the front
optimistic

>>64111494
Nevermind the length.
Look at the width.
Either the russians manage to reinforce, widen and hold and I'll have a newfound respect for them as they are learning.
Or more likely they just keep pushing further than they should and the attempt get snipped miserably.

>>64111497
>>64111494
>>64111491
It's pathetic that a breakthrough in the corps tactical area is a great triumph for Russia in 2025, but it's more than they've managed all year. Ukraine most likely doesn't have the capacity to counterattack and prevent this from at the very least forcing withdrawal along a section of the front.

Russia has been taking very heavy losses in their attacks but now that they have made it through the line in some numbers, Ukraine's complete pivot to extremely passive, drone based defense means they don't really have any assets or doctrine in place to close such a breach.

Most likely you're looking at this drive being halted in the coming days and weeks, and then a gradual Ukrainian withdrawal from hundreds or thousands of square kilometers of front line positions that are no longer possible to resupply without taking unacceptable casualties.

>>64111541
This is not 2022. Neither side has armored brigades ready to roll up the rear of an unsupported advance. The front line consists of widely scattered fighting positions in treelines or basements of houses, resupplied once every couple of weeks by a near-suicidal delivery run. You can't mass a tank brigade anywhere within dozens of kilometers of the front, and reducing even a thin throat like that using light infantry infiltration attacks would take weeks or months.

>>64111541
>Look at the width.
It's soooo over

>>64111545
Russia has been stockpiling armor for the past months just for this opportunity, anon. You can just look at the casualty figures and even the threads on /k/ talking about it, to see this is the case.

>>64111550
>threads on /k/ talking about it, to see this is the case.
Yeah I've seen your shill threads

>>64111498
>>get baited into a salient
>>HAAA GHOST OF QUEEF SAVE ME
>>encirclement cuts you off
>>PLEEEEASE DADDY PUTIN SAVE ME
/thread

>>64111553
Mate, the threads were specifically talking about how Russia was out of armor now that they weren't taking losses in tanks.
The obvious and blatant reality is that they were stockpiling.

>>64111547
You know how those Russian roads of death form near the front line? To attack, they have to constantly throw reinforcements forward under complete enemy fire control. Night and day, week after week. They've got logistics in place and have been doing this for about 2 years at this point in this sector of the front. Their army is used to doing this and completely fine with taking 50+% casualties just getting new troops to the front.

Ukraine has none of that in place. They've got a sparse defensive line consisting mostly of isolated outposts, their primary combat power is in drones and the infantry is primarily there to deny defensible terrain to the enemy so they spend longer in the open to get killed. They don't have the infrastructure in place, ready to go, to stage any kind of effective counterattack any time soon.

>>64111542
My prediction is that they make it about this far. That's where the dry riverbeds they seem to be exploiting stop and it's back to dead flat fields.

>>64111556
>>64111550
where is this armor, retard? This advance is being made and exploited by light infantry in light vehicles. If it keeps going it will keep going as light infantry in light vehicles.

>>64111542
Azov's literally right next to that breakthrough. If anyone's currently capable of cutting that breakthrough at the root, it's them.
We'll most likely see in the coming days if the zigs can capitalize on this assault.

>>64111561
Steiner will bring up the 502nd armored division. He will exploit this breakthrough,

>>64111560
They've already cut the Kramatorsk highway according to Ukrainian sources
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAawd_2tZjg

I don't think this will be some WW2 style massive sweep but they're definitely getting at least that far.

>>64111550
>Russia has been stockpiling armor for the past months just for this opportunity, anon
You just sound insane at this point. Russia stockpiling armour is it? Berlin and Paris next hey? Little coloured lines showing insignificant movements on maps followed by another 50,000 Russian dead?

Hopeully including you the next time. It would have seeemd utterly impssibly in 2021 but UKraine has won this war and in the end it was not even close. Stockpiling armour my ass, Russia can't even concentrate it near the front. A week ago you were telling us that the Russian army was in teh middle of Pokrovsk unopposed?
What happened tho them? Got bored and went back to Moscow?

>>64111562
>If anyone's currently capable of cutting that breakthrough at the root, it's them.
True, and they might even have the combat power to conduct such an operation if it were 2022 or 2023, but I just don't see an armored counterattack happening in 2025, in donbass, where each side has complete fire control over the enemy tactical rear areas. fiber optic FPVs (used by both sides) are now routinely interdicting anything moving within 30km of the line of control

>>64111569
holy seethe

Wow!
Can you imagine that Gayrapeans??? Can you believe this???

>>64111567
Literally exactly where I put my prediction.

>>64111561
>where is this armor, retard?
Moving into the breach.

>>64111569
>russia refurbishes armor at X numbers per month
>ordinary months see X ± 0.5X armor losses
>russian armor casualties have been X - (0.9*x) for the past months
Where do you think that armor went? Did you shove it up your ass or something?

>>64111558
>Their army is used to doing this and completely fine with taking 50+% casualties just getting new troops to the front.
>50+% casualties
At what rate and over which period of time ?
Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake and all that shit...

>>64111558
>Ukraine has none of that in place. They've got a sparse defensive line consisting mostly of isolated outposts, their primary combat power is in drones and the infantry is primarily there to deny defensible terrain to the enemy so they spend longer in the open to get killed. They don't have the infrastructure in place, ready to go, to stage any kind of effective counterattack any time soon.
You're actually retarded, where are you from? You're either the product of a malnorished childhood or you are underage. If you genuinly thik this bullshit is some breakthrough for Russia you are in for one massive dissapointment. You will then deny the Russian casualty figures.

But the Russian soldiers. They will be gone.

>>64111575
>Moving into the breach.
in your dreams?

>>64111556
>Mate, the threads were specifically talking about how Russia was out of armor now that they weren't taking losses in tanks.
>The obvious and blatant reality is that they were stockpiling.
Mate you're either retarded or a Russian oropagandist. Given how little you know about war and the spastic crap you are posting here I'd say you are part of some leftypol group of commuists here to shill for the kremlin. Vomit has more humanity and truth in it than you.

>>64111579
>emotional redd*tposting
holy shit things must be bad

>>64111557
Its over for kope

At this point I'm just happy that some fucking movement happen.

>>64111586
>zero arguments
>just "no you're wrong"
Eat shit, tourist.

>>64111485 (OP)
Two more weeks

>>64111557
/k/OOOPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>>64111590
First maneuver warfare in... 1.5 years?

>>64111587
>malding this hard

>>64111594
Since 1.5 year since kursk already?

>>64111589
>linking it's own shit thread
Why are pidorstanian shills like this?

>>64111542
What triumph? It's just interesting that there's something militarily exciting happening. The front has been so stagnant there's not even been anything to discuss. Just war tourists flinging shit at each other.

>>64111591
NTA but claiming your preferred narrative is “the obvious and blatant reality” is not an argument either

>>64111605
>refurbish tanks
>don't use those tanks
>de facto, by definition, those tanks are stockpiled instead of expended
This is not a narrative. This is a simple fact.
You lacking the basic capability for reason and logic does not change the truth in any way or form. You are too emotionally and ideologically involved in the situation to have any kind of clear perception on what is happening.

>>64111570
At the same time they're probably the first unit that has properly managed to reform under the new army corps model, and still have a decent amount of equipment to play around with. Notice how their front sector has basically ground to a stalemate.
I'm with you, a spectacular armored push is impossible, but an assault in the same vein they've done near Toretsk multiple times, with MRAP's funneling troops in and under constant drone cover could be done. It's not something I'd be willing to bet on, but it's possible.

>>64111609
Sure, but it’s also expected that the rate of refurbishment declines as the quality of the input drops. Ie the stuff in best condition gets refurbished first.
What is your methodology for determining the impact of increased rate of stockpiling vs the decreased rate of refurbishing?

Pokrovsk by winter, for real this time.

>>64111626
>Sure, but it’s also expected that the rate of refurbishment declines as the quality of the input drops.
Yes, of course. But based on all OSINT and publications from both sides on Russian refurbishment efforts, the rate has not dropped anywhere near to the point where it would explain the lack of Russian armor losses on the front. Russia is STILL refurbishing tanks. They STILL have functional tanks in service other than the ones being refurbished.
The lack of tank losses in recent months is decisively NOT caused by a quantitative lack of vehicles, but is blatantly a decision made by Russian commanders to not expend them, and instead hold them in reserve and stockpile them instead.

>>64111639
It was supposed to fall exactly a year ago but something went wrong

>>64111639
For real, bro

>>64111639
And Europe freezes over.

>>64111645
No, you see, back then the fall of Pokrovsk was only "imminent"
Now it's "happening"
Maybe in 12 more months and another 40,000-80,000 casualties it will graduate to "happened"

i checked out of this war in late '22. anyone know if there's some public record of mfs who got contracted? my ukie bro has been missing since april

>>64111639
might be sooner than that. They are entering I can't lyiv territory

>>64111575
>Moving into the breach.
two more weeks and the armored donkeys will have kyiv in sight

>>64111579
But the Russian soldiers. They will be gone
and nothing of value will be lost

>>64111641
Can you link some of the sources?
I have no doubt that Russia has been stockpiling and diverting resources for a big push before Putin-Trump talks (which is what we’re seeing now) but I have not seen any actual numbers to help me gauge the real situation.

>>64111654
and whats your cope going to be when ziggers fizzle out completely in donbawe?

>>64111656
Would you happen to have an updated version to July 2025, please ?
For scientific purpose.

>>64111661
it's gonna get memory holed like every other time ziggers celebrated prematurely

>>64111485 (OP)
They wont make any news worthy breakthroughs, there is essentially nothing important there it is all farmland. Useless in the short-term anyways. Curious to see how well they do, but I doubt it will look much greater than it already is.

Wonder how many electric scooters and HIV+ troops will get deconstructed. Hopefully some more cool videos are gonna be made during the next few months. Excited for the niggerrigged vehicles (and nork) vehicles that will undoubtedly show up.

>>64111674
honestly, that's consistent progress since kherson. not great, not terrible.

>>64111666
Satan knows.

>>64111661
the same thing that happened in Sumy,Kharkiv, Chasiv yar, Toretsk - memmoryholed for the lastest grand offensive that will surely bring Kiev to it's knees.

>>64111680
>not terrible.
(X)