Thread 64390014

I realize this topic is closer to /biz/ than it is /k/, but it ties into military logistics. I hope it'll be better than the one that the chinkspammer made in bad faith the other day anyway.

As we all know Orange Man has done a little trolling with tariffs yet again which has promoted Xi the Pooh to effectively cut off existing exports on REEs and add another 5 to that list. Anywhere talking about US arms and you'll have some thirdie or wumao screaming about magnets and it's only gotten worse since Friday.

What I want to bring up though is that at least for defense related REEs, China has literally no leverage.
>Take China's 2020 Unreliable Entity List for example, basically a full sanction of any types of imports or exports to China on a company.
Lockmart and friends were added to the UEL in Feb 2023. So uhh, how are they still pumping out 160 F-35s and 2000 AMRAAMS in 2025 when they've been cut off for 2 years?

So say that's only been able to continue because of dual sourcing, internal rerouting or something. Stockpiles. Even before Trump started the tariffs and restrictions started, stockpiles on were estimated to be between 14-18 months worth. Then there was the 90 day tariff truce period in which REE exports from China to the US went up by 70% in the first month alone. So no idea about stockpiles now, but it sure as hell is higher than the 14-18 month previous estimate.

>(cont)

>>64390014 (OP)
>b-but the US has no rare earths! You are doomed once you run dry!
REE ores aren't rare lol. The US and Australia actually have higher quality ores at 7-8% TREO vs China's majority 6% TREO ores at Bayan Obo.
The US first recognized this problem in 2010 when China barred REE exports to Japan. CSIS wrote a study on it, but it wasn't until 2020 that the DoW and DoE invested half a billion in REE mining and processing and another 1.5 billion in general supporting infrastructure between 2020 and 2023. PLUS another $400m directly in MP materials earlier this year. Little late, but better than never.
So here's the rundown on US REE refining. Two plants online, Mountain Pass
does 6.5k tons of finished product annually, other one is a bit of a meme, but 4 more coming online in 2026/2027. Australia has 1 that specializes in picrel with 3 coming online in 2026. This also doesn't include Malaysia who refined 10k tons of finished product who we import from.

So what exactly is China's plan here blocking the whole world from REEs?

>>64390023
they're probably counting on the US being unable to establish alternate supply chains because of all the tariffs and shit trump is putting on US allies

>>64390014 (OP)
>160 F-35
>0.1% of total global use of REE
RE are a nothingburger to make noise in the media. At self-inflicted problem that for whatever reasons americans are excessively self-conscious

>>64390023
This isn't about the future, it's about today. China is tired of Trump's shit and picked this as the day to punch back economically. REEs are just one item in the basket. I don't know anything about them but I can tell you the basedbean issue is hitting US farmers hard. If prices do not increase substantially soon, we will see a modest but significant fraction of midsize farmers (traditional Republican-base types) fearing for their businesses because of rising input prices & the not-quite-fully commoditizable nature of crops. It's a nothingburger for China. They invested in Brazil to cover this.

>>64390029
Like how everyone applauded Denmark for pulling away from US defense after the Greenland trolling.... >>64381933

>>64390014 (OP)
The US has developed a non-toxic, cheap and scalable technique for refining, sub-human. Just like the Ames process Chiner uses to refine and pollute the ever loving shit out of their farm lands, air, and drinking water. The US innovates, Chiner copies, and copies badly.

>A team of Ames Lab researchers at the Critical Materials Innovation Hub has developed a new, safer, scalable method for producing rare earth metals that utilizes the Ames Process. This new method, Rare Earth Metals from Alternative Fluoride Salt (REMAFS), uses an alternative fluoride salt in the production of rare earth metals, instead of the traditional rare earth salts that are made with harmful hydrofluoric acid (HF). Additionally, the method can be integrated earlier in the rare earth supply chain to reduce the number of steps required to convert mined materials to rare earth metals.

>“This process uses... sodium rare earth fluoride. The difference is that sodium rare earth fluoride can be prepared without hydrofluoric acid,” Nlebedim said. “It can be prepared at room temperature, and it is very easy to scale, so you can produce large quantities of it.”
https://www.ameslab.gov/news/researchers-develop-a-new-non-toxic-method-for-rare-earth-metal-processing
BIG OOF

>Critical Materials Innovation (CMI) Hub researchers at Ames National Laboratory developed a new technology for processing rare earth metals (Rare Earth Metals from Alternative Fluoride Salt (REMAFS)) that has now been licensed to Principal Mineral of Dallas, Texas.
https://www.ameslab.gov/news/cmi-technology-for-rare-earth-processing-licensed-to-principal-mineral
Already being used.

Also:
>Scientists develop rare earth free magnet for use in industrial motors
https://www.ameslab.gov/news/scientists-develop-rare-earth-free-magnet-for-use-in-industrial-motors
UH-OH, sub-humans!

>>64390230
Also from last time Chiner sperged out and totarry banned REE exports to the US.

The US already mines them, can get them from allies (Japan, Germany, Australia, etc), has a decade of strategic reserves built up, or, like usual, the CCP is all talk and no action and continues to import them to the US because their economy would implode if they actually stopped exporting.

>China's export controls on critical minerals aren't starving the United States—at least so far
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/chinas-export-controls-critical-minerals-arent-starving-united-states

>However, current and future production capacities in Japan, Germany, and Australia undermine the power of this most recent Chinese economic swipe at the United States.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-chinas-gallium-sanctions