Tariffs will reduce deficits by $2.5 trillion over 10 years: CBO
https://thehill.com/business/budget/5332407-trump-tariffs-deficit-reduction-cbo/
Tariffs will reduce deficits by $2.5 trillion over 10 years: CBO
President Trump’s tariffs will take a major bite out of U.S. deficit levels, reducing them by $2.5 trillion over the next decade and shrinking the size of the U.S. economy, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found in a Wednesday analysis.
The deficit reduction is almost exactly the same size as the deficit addition that would result from the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill.” The CBO found that the bill would add $2.4 trillion to deficits through 2034, according to a separate analysis released Wednesday.
The tariffs measured by the CBO are those implemented from Jan. 6 to May 13, which includes the trade truce with China announced May 12.
The CBO included in its calculation a menu of tariffs that Trump has announced since taking office: a 30 percent tariff on imports from China and Hong Kong; 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico that started March 7; 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 12; 25 percent tariffs on most automobile imports starting April 3; 10 percent tariff on imports from most countries that began April 5; and 25 percent tariff on imports of most auto parts, as of May 3.
Trump has said since the start of his term that he would implement tariffs to balance trade with other countries and to try to spur a manufacturing boom in the U.S. He has routinely announced tariffs, then paused them in an effort to strike a trade deal with a particular nation. But several tariffs have stuck and the overall tariff rate is now between 10 percent and 15 percent, the highest level in decades.
The boosted projections for federal revenue will likely raise long-term economic confidence, especially since the bond market has been quaking in recent weeks. Bond yields have popped in response to tariffs and legislation.
Republican arguments about the fiscal health of the U.S. economy are likely to get a jolt from the new CBO scores, as well.
Democrats asked the CBO to score the president’s tariffs.
Marc Goldwein, policy director of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, described the tariff offsets of the cost of the Republican’s budget bill as “pretty coincidental.”
The main reasons for the higher deficit reductions than in other forecasts are lower interest rate payments on the debt along with higher tax revenues from increased inflation.
The decrease in primary deficits from less spending on interest would reduce total deficits by an additional $500 billion, the CBO projected.
“Total deficits over the 2025-2035 period would be $3.0 trillion lower than projected in CBO’s January 2025 baseline,” the agency said.
Higher nominal prices from a 0.4-percent boost to inflation from the tariffs will increase federal revenues, since taxes are taken out of income. “The net result of those effects will be an increase in federal revenues,” the CBO said.
The estimate is in line with some previous projections by Washington policy groups.
The Tax Foundation estimated in April that a 10 percent universal tariff similar to the one imposed by the White House would raise $2.2 trillion over the 2025-to-2034 budget window.
The Yale Budget lab predicted $2 trillion in revenues, including dynamic effects. Without $347 billion in losses due to economic shrinkage, the tariffs would have pulled in $2.4 trillion through 2035, the group found.
Penn Wharton, basing its analysis on the much more expansive “Liberation Day tariffs” that have since been walked back, projected that the tariffs would bring in more than $4.5 trillion when accounting for their economy-shrinking effects.
The CBO score does not include economic growth or shrinkage effects, which the agency said will be included at a later date.
The CBO also found that the tariffs are likely to have a more negative effect on poorer Americans due to the fact that their expenses are concentrated in the goods sector, which is more affected by the tariffs than service products.
Tariffs will hit hardest in durable goods — things like cars and home appliances — and the price increases are likely to be greatest in those sectors.
>>1409770 (OP)>The tariffs measured by the CBO are those implemented from Jan. 6 to May 13, which includes the trade truce with China announced May 12. How many times has Trump altered, delayed, or chickened out of announced tariffs since then?
Even if the CBO's math is good, it's based on effectively imaginary numbers.
>>1409770 (OP)>over 10 yearsWho here genuinely thinks the tariffs are going to stay in place for 10 years? Anyone?
>>1409776Democrats will undo everything, it doesn't matter.
>>1409778Tariffs aren't maintainable for 10 years in the first place.
The 2.5 billion over ten years is really going to make a dent in the trillion a year, g-guys!
>>1409770 (OP)Can't we just:
Keep tariffs
Get rid of progressive tax and do a flat income tax
Keep budget cuts?
It's time to scale back some spending and raise money
>>1409781Canada did it for decades. Which is why they're so angry at us, presently.
>>1409786Let me guess, you think Canada genuinely charged us 100%+ tariffs?
>>1409787They have up to 300% tariffs on us for several products
>>1409787he's retarded. if you explain reality to him he will not learn
>>1409788Annnd there it is. When are you gonna read the fucking agreement and see we have quite literally never had to pay those tariffs. Ever. They're contingent on a certain amount of goods being exported/imported over a period of time, which we have yet to even come CLOSE to reaching.
>>1409790What you're asking is a paradox.
If MAGAts actually educated themselves about the things they spend all day arguing about, they wouldn't be MAGAts anymore.
Trump loves the uneducated.
>>1409790>They're contingent on a certain amount of goods being exported/imported over a period of time, which we have yet to even come CLOSE to reaching.Can you give me a source?
>>1409796can you quit your job as a shill who plays dumb
>>1409785>do a flat income taxLess completely fucking stupid idea. A flat wealth tax. A flat income tax would dick over poorer Americans who aren't even making enough money to survive debt free as is. People are fucking financing their fucking groceries. Shit's fucked and that bill's gonna come due a lot fucking sooner than our national fucking debt.
>>1409801Can you give me a direct link?
I keep hearing this talking point, but it sounds like propaganda.
>>1409770 (OP)This article says the exact opposite https://apnews.com/article/cbo-deficits-tax-cuts-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-64d7de49aef62ba07b7f6f45c1ca73d1
>>1409789Leftist shit posting isn't reality
>>1409806You should try reading the OP article. It is consistent with what you posted. Try some reading comprehension skills or something.
>>1409788On cheese. They had 300% on cheese because NY subsidizes their cheese so much it would kill off every Canadian dairy farm.
>>1409770 (OP)>No steel & aluminum tariffs imposed on UK>>1409691>Ivans will experience Starmergeddon via drones sent to Ukraine from UK,Trump has folded like a lawn chair to Sir Keir.
He will help Ukraine in the humiliation of the already weakened Putin
>Labour's massive 400+ seat majority when elected last year>signed deal with EU which destroyed Brexitards, making Nigel FaRAGEStarmer is the Strong Man now.
>>1409785No we can't.
>It's time to scale backIt's going to take a decade to fix the vital government services Trump has broken.
>>1409807Leftist shitposting is unironically more true than whatever crap you're coming up with.
>>1409807Reality has a liberal bias.
Reality doesn't care about your feelings.
>>1409830Try the second paragraph, retard
wow a selusionist country doesn't trade abroad and so has a deficit who'd of guessed
>>1409834>It's going to take a decade to fix the vital government services Trump has broken.you meant to say Biden has broken
>>1409880a bot could do your job, isn't that pathetic
>>1409770 (OP)>Over ten yearsAnd what makes you think they'd be kept up for that long? As soon as Trump is gone one way or another, that shit's getting dropped.
>>1409882>trump stops wasteful spending>REEEEEEE system is brokenIf you're a democrat look at how much money California is embezzling from the "state" water fund. california is literally stealing federal tax dollars and giving it to its billionaires by exploiting democrat policies.
I hope your house gets set on fire and you don't have any water left to fight off the flames too it'd be karma
And a bot can still do a better job than the retard that is
>>1410097 'REEEEEEE'-ing because others aren't in lockstep with her being a Karen
>hopeIf wishes were currency you'd be homeless and starving
>'wishing' that on othersAnything bad happening to you would be karma for your psychotic wrongthink, retard. Stop allowing wrong opinions to exist in your mind or bad things will happen to you. That's karma.
>>1409785>flat income taxThis would lose so much money. Progressive taxes are fair and smart
>keep budget cutsYou mean the 100 million or so that does nothing but stall activity like firing noaa workers?
If you want to scale back spending and raise money you need to raise taxes and cut spending in defense and reign in vampiric middlemen insurance that do nothing but jack up prices for profit. But it won't happen because the insurance sector is like 1/8th the economy
>>1410105>Anything bad happening to you would be karma for your psychotic wrongthinkdemocrats have no self-awareness. you do realize trump is somethign you bought on the world right. Soon you'll be taken out of your comfy nepobaby homes arrested and thrown into a prison to work to death. It'll be a good time for america.
Trump needs to replace the slave labor class and who better to take their place then worthless pathetic nepobabies like you.
>>1410107>vampiric middlemen insurance that do nothing but jack up prices for profitThis, but useless administrative staff in government
>>1410113>it's democrats "fault"You'll be the one in a labor camp if you keep misallocating credit you moron. Credit for Trump's glorious ascension belongs with the right, and the right alone. Do not credit the communists with our greatest triumph.
>replace the slave labor classYour irritation at the "nepobabies" suggests to me that you already are a member of the wagecuck class. You should know it is correct for you to be at this place in the social hierarchy: either your genetics or your culture have rendered you insufficient to rule society. Wanting social revolution is the realm of the communists, and defending it makes me think you're one of them. Shouldn't you be out earning your month's rent, instead of dog-whistling communist propaganda?
>>1410126he's already in a labor camp being forced to spam talking points facebook boomers might fall for
>>1410132It's a tough market for facebook shills right now, given they have to compete with Shrimp Jesus (who else can say they fried for your sins?). At least Siberia is warmer this time of year. And it beats being placed on the front lines.
>>1410126>whiny nepo baby think they're the peak of human societykekeke you just admitted to being a worthless nepobaby it's only a matter of time.
>>1410132you deserve to rot in the cage with him I hope you both suffer
>>1410126>. Credit for Trump's glorious ascension belongs with the rightSomething like 9 million Democrat voters disappeared between 2020 and 2024. If it's the rights fault that Harris was so disliked, then sure
>>1410150This is the Internet; I won't bother telling you my wage since you won't believe me. But what's undeniable is your disdain for the well-off. It isn't your fault; you didn't choose to be born suckling the teat of poverty. You had no choice but to carry the cultural values of poverty and ignorance with you as a kid, signaling to your teachers you were a lost cause.
Might I suggest indulging in some racism? Thinking and talking about how terrible black people or immigrants are should make you feel better about paying tariff taxes that offset the cost of my tax cuts.
>>1410177why would i care about blacks and illegals when Nepobabies like you deserve to be mugged? Racism is for stupid people, the ones people ought to be mad at are narcissistic nepobabies.
This isn't 1980s anymore where people thought money made you a good person, everyone above a certain threshold is an insuffrable piece of shit or an actual criminal taking advantage of the system.
>>1410214(me)
>>1410177and incase you're wondering i consider democrats the more privilaged cuntish party of the two. You can't ever see them screeching about an issue that isn't by some white middle-class karen type, the tesla boycotts have the whitest demographic i've ever seen and the whole trans movement is largely white freaks and crackers.
>>1410221why would i be for white replacement theory when i'm actively calling whiteys nepo pissbabies
>>1410294Aren't you due for some medication?
>>1409770 (OP)This is not true just like trumps whole life is just fake
what i tell ya? told you he smoke green stuff
>>1409770 (OP)>and shrinking the size of the U.S. economy,Why are economists never punished for their incorrect predictions?
