>>507388765I'm not sure if they are ballistic, but none of them look to be shot down. The first one gets blocked by a cloud and continues towards the horizon (it's possible that was shot down and it veered off course or something, impossible to tell) but the other 2 clearly hit the ground and considering they hit where the missiles were launched from it's safe to say that they hit where they were supposed to.
The flashes are from the AA missiles exploding, and the way the camera shakes (and some kind of AI that stabilizes it) makes it seem like the lights "tumble" which is bit confusing but that's not actually the case, a missile wouldn't tumble if it was hit it would just explode. You can observe the same tumbling on the counter missiles.