Let me outline the scenario for you.
Trump makes a big speech about the upcoming invasion, gives some justifications about how Iran is bad etc…

America will quickly attain air superiority over the country, and naval superiority in the gulf of Hormuz

They will airdrop or land maybe 100k troops + equipment in the south, with allies, maybe totalling 500k at the absolute maximum

And then they will try to march on Tehran just like Bagdad.

But at this point America has already lost.

Iran is a country of almost 100 million people and Iranians HATE America FAR more than they hate the Ayatollah, plus they have seen FIRST HAND how Americans utterly destroyed Iraq after promising freedom and democracy there.

They will not revolt is what I am saying, rather they will unite and fight for their land and their pride as Persians.

To defeat Iran, you would need an American Army in the multiple millions, like 5 million at least.
And American people don’t want to fight, and no amount of drafts will change that, it will just cause a revolt at home, worse than Vietnam.

Second issue, Iran is a massive fortress, imagine the Soviet-Afghan war x100, heavy equipment made entirely useless.

Third issue is that the terrain gives the Iranian army a zone of control the Americans lack, meaning as soon as they land they will be encircled.

Maybe they could supply troops on the immediate coast but anywhere further in land will be reliant on airdrops which is incredibly dangerous due to the mountains hiding anti-air and drone strikes.

The end result is tens of thousands dead, hundreds of thousands stranded without supply, and the US forced to either capitulate or pour money in forever until both Iran and America are destroyed.

Which leaves Israel as the premier power in the Middle East with NO rivals, Period.
This is Israel’s end goal and best case scenario.

Don’t believe me? They did exactly this to the British and French.

>>507852565 (OP)
Not to mention the Arab dyanasties along the Persian gulf will be targeted by Iran sending the global economy tits up.

>>507852791
They likely will, Saudis are very vulnerable due to their Shia population also occupying their main oil fields.

With luck Saudis might collapse as well leaving Israel totally unmatched

>>507852565 (OP)
Iran will surrender in a few days

>>507853203
Why would they?
America can’t do anything to them and Iranians hate Americans more than they dislike the Ayatollah.

>>507852565 (OP)
Correct

Israel and Saudi Arabia want Iran destroyed and an Athenian style collapse of America from being over extended. Hundreds of thousands of American troops will be trapped in Iran because of the mountainous terrain, Trump would threaten to nuke Iran to let the soldiers out after losing but Russia and China would threaten MAD to stop this. The outcome will be greater Israel

>>507852951
House of Saud should be careful with any deals made with the West
Only a matter of time until they are the next bad guy

>>507853634
Greater Israel and possibly a civil war or at least massive unrest in the USA leading to a total pull-back from Empire and isolation.

As for the Union, who knows? Maybe it survives as a strict Christian Theocracy almost akin to the Iranian Republic, maybe it breaks apparat, maybe it turns communist/fascist

>>507852565 (OP)
OR

America just hands over the ordinance to Israel and Tehran and every major Iranian city would be smoldering craters by tomorrow.

Then Europe would give Bibi a stern talk about human rights and threaten to arrest him if he steps onto their soil. Meanwhile Russia would do nothing, knowing that their backers are Russian kikes.

>>507854091
Israel does not have the capability to overthrow Iran’s regime if you live even close to reality and the US giving them aid isn’t enough

Israel launched this with the intent of dragging us in, were the sacrificial lamb for their empire

>>507853855
They are best goys for Israel so they are under no real threat.

They can never challenge Israel anyway and are best suited for being partners with Israeli hegemony in the region.
Israel can crush them, but they can also work together with Israel as military hegemon and political leader and Saudis as “cultural” leader (under Israel of course)

>>507854219
>capability to overthrow Iran’s regime

They've already decapitated their leadership on their own. They just need to be given the firepower to deal a knock out blow.

>>507852565 (OP)
>When you kill your enemies, you lose
Still not dying for Pissrael tho

>>507854219
You already dealt with Iraq for them, and that was a much more immediate threat.
However the Gulf war had clear limited aims and this is why it worked.
Iraqi Freedom destroyed Saddam’s Army because Iraq is a flat desert which is perfect for American “shock and awe” with small mobile units and rapid heavy armour strikes.

Iran is not like wither of those situations.
Even Afghanistan is not comparable because USA success was based on the fact that Afghans were already in a civil war and the US quickly allied with the Northern Alliance who made victory possible, still long term it was a failure because Americans NEVER secured Afghanistan.

It was the same situation in Vietnam, no goal, unreliable local allies, a hateful population who only became MORE sympathetic to the opposition and united against the USA over time, not to mention impenetrable terrain which would require WWII levels of deployment to even hope for conquest, as well as basically perpetual occupation as with Japan/Germany.

>>507854518
Iran’s entire regime will fight until they’re all dead, there is no concept of surrendering at this point and if American troops are deployed, they’re being deployed into a country that chants death to America. Iran is a trap, the same trap that doomed the Athenians

>>507854519
Unironically yes sometimes.
Look at King Pyrrhus

If America was the same as it was in 1950, with a massive young and patriotic population, and equally gigantic domestic industry, then it could be ok.

But America doesn’t produce shit anymore and can’t afford any losses OR mobilize it’s people to fight.

Even if Draftfags were right, the USA can’t even support an army in the millions even if they did draft them all.

>>507854518
This is like saying North Vietnam will surrender id you just drop enough bombs.

It won’t happen.
Even liberal Iranians hate America (with good reason)

>>507854735
If Iran surrenders they already know they will end ip like Iraq or Afghanistan
Meanwhile if they fight they *might* force the Americans into a no-win scenario and possibly even win long term like the Taliban or North Vietnamese did.

>>507854873
No North Vietnam didn't surrender because the Americans limited its escalafiom, and rightfully so since a retaliatory USSR would have been bad news.

Today however, such an entity doesn't exist for Iran. Not in the form of China nor Russia.

Ok according to our terrorist agenda I now I install the atom collider onto the ballistic artifact

Thanks Benjamin always useful

>>507855485
The only further escalation possible in Iran would be nukes, and there is no way Russia or China would accept an American nuclear strike on Iran.

I predict the situation will be if Trump threatens nukes either russia or china or both might state that they will remain neutral BUT retaliate if the USA OR Iran launches a nuke in an effort to secure global peace.

>>507855485
They dropped more bombs no North Vietnam than they did during WW2, anon. And they were more accurate ones at that.

If Iran turns into Houthis, just tens of millions of them, they can't be defeated.

>>507855723
> no way Russia or China would accept an American nuclear strike on Iran.

Which is why I stated, let Israel have the nukes. Russia's not going to retaliate and China's not gonna risk escalation to whomever isn't the US.

>>507855723
Best case scenario is America and allies can occupy Tehran but then have zero ability to control the country, turning Iran into a gigantic money pit like Iraq x10

Likely scenario is something like Russia in Ukraine, a long term meat grinder as USA tried to ramp up domestic arms production over the next decade.

Possible scenario is the American land forces are encircled and decimated in the rocky highlands just like the French at Dien Bien Phu.

>>507855942
>If Iran turns into Houthis, just tens of millions of them, they can't be defeated.

The Houthis could barely make half of Yemen theirs, let alone threaten Israel from afar.

Iran's population is 92mil

The vast majority of Iranians hate the ayotollah.

There would be no "march"

America wouldn't even need a single boot on the ground. The only reason I could think it would be necessary would be to ensure the enrichment facilities are destroyed.

America stands with Israel forever

>the coping
>the seething
>the sneeding
>the feeding

>>507855485
America dropped more bombs on Vietnam than the entirety of every country in WW2, the war was lost because America didn’t have a good strategic goal along with the Vietnamese having a stronger will to win

The west today is full of hubris, people don’t understand strategy they just think they can win because they’re an empire.

>>507856095
Houthis hold the highlands, Iran is all highlands.
It’s not the open desert and floodplains of Iraq where maneuver warfare is at it’s best.

Even Alexander the Great didn’t fight Darius in Persia proper, he baited the Persian army out closer to his own supply lines and crushed it in a Kantai Kessen type battle.

>>507856156
They hate America more and they saw first hand what “freedom” looks like in Iraq

>>507856313
Source: trust me bro

Faggot incel chuds lose AGAIN

>>507856188
No firm goal AND not enough forces in country to secure the south.

In Korea the UN forces had like 5 million men or more in theatre, and America is STILL in Korea today.

That is the commitment required to win.

>>507856265
The objective is never to "take over" Iran.

The objective is toppling the regime, even if it means them scurrying into the mountains on subsistence living. While they are at it, their nuclear and military capabilities could systematically stripped. We can leave the neighboring Muslim tribes to fill whatever vacuum is left. The more regressive they are (like the Taliban), the better.

>>507856574
Iran isn’t surrounded by similar Muslims like Syria was, it would be nation building + refugee crisis but even worse than before

>>507856156
iranians hate america and israel more than they hate the ayatollah, and americans are starting to resemblem them in this aspect


touch grass faggot

>>507852565 (OP)
Initially the Iraq war was popular because we pushed their shit in. Bombing, air superiority, easy sauce victories, limited casualties (relative).
The issue became that the Military was then tasked with becoming the local police force...for years. They routinely were picked off by snipers, IED's. They did all this to babysit Gov contracts to Corporations that were tasked to rebuild (for profit of course). This became the hard part, the long grind of babysitting, getting shot at, trillions in dollars up in smoke.

>>507856712
>nation building + refugee crisis

You see folks, you just added a component completely unnecessary to winning a war. You think the Romans thought all of this when they finally had it with the Carthaginians?

>>507852565 (OP)
>t.

Or
America overthrow the government in the span of weeks (mainly because they have most of Europe and Israel as backing), nobody in Iran lifts a finger to save said government, then the US and it's allies stay in the country for 20 years as politicians dick around with regime change before leaving it to the most stable terrorist group.

>>507856574
>regime change
Lmao worked every other time right?

>>507852565 (OP)
>And then they will try to march on Tehran just like Bagdad.
Wrong. They occupy these areas with funny symbols, and direct the profits to fund the war coffers. The rest of the Iran is worthless shithole not worth of occupying.

Like in Ukraine, NATO was happy to supply weapons and specialists to bleed Russia. The exact same will happen with China already seen flying in weapons to Iran on secret flights. RUS, NK and CHN will all support Iran and try to do the same bleed on US/ISRL.

>>507852565 (OP)
It’s Iran

>>507857464
Regime change was never about nation building, it's exactly in the name, you're simply changing the regime (which is a threat to the West) for something else.

America lost every single war in the Middle East. If you truly want Israel to lose you should want America to start helping them.

>>507857563
Ok, so you just have a massive area full of hostiles left open for them or organize and counterattack?
Reminds me of Vietnam.

>>507857901
The issue is achieving that.
Control over Iran is doubtful, as it’s not nearly as permissive as the flat open terrain of Iraq for American light mobile warfare.

>>507858077
Wrong

Israel stands to gain the most from a loss

>>507852565 (OP)
ITS OBVIOUSLY A TRAP
BUT WHO CARES

JUST RUN OVER THE TRAP
CRUSH IT

AMERICA HAS RETARD STRENGTH

>>507858315
Well, USA will have the most valuable part of the country as hostage if they do attempt it.
Burning oilfields if they don't disperse is a decent threat.

>>507852565 (OP)
okay. can we hurry it the fuck up already

>>507858720
America simply cannot commit enough to roll over Iran.

Trump lacks the political unity, and the US simply can’t afford it.
Not to mention the USA sold off all it’s heavy industry.
Russia has basically won in Ukraine because they can pump out materiale constantly, the USA can’t even resupply an army of any significant size, especially if they take big losses.

America is in the same situation as France was in Indochina.
They risk getting trapped and kicked out of the region entirely, with a Dien Bien Phu scenario being very likely as Iran is not suitable at all for an army that favours mobile warfare.

You should look up what happened to the French colonial army during their Indochinese wars, that is what awaits America.

The upside is that America will likely destroy Iran in the process since their airpower is unassailable, but that just leaves both sides battered and the USA forced to retreat from the Middle East and possibly around the world, which benefits Israel most of all.

>>507858862
And Iran will have the American army hostage with no way to retreat.
Airlifts can’t take troops out easily and controling a port will be almost impossible with near constant drone and rocket attacks on costal landing points.

The American army might find itself trapped in Iran with no ability to resupply except by air, AGAIN like the French in Vietnam.

Iran might also be willing to take the Dunepill and destroy the oilfields if it means destroying the American forces.

>>507859481
Just throw a nuke in tehran if they get too uppity