>>508044866 1. Early Warning (Q1 2025): NATO intelligence uncovers massive Russian troop and armor buildups near the Baltic and Ukrainian borders, alongside coordinated cyber-attacks on Estonian and Polish power grids.
2. Crisis Summit: NATO convenes an emergency Council. Facing credible threats of invasion, Allies unanimously agree on a “preemptive defense” mandate.
3. Precision Strikes Launch: In April 2025, F-35s and Eurofighters, escorted by electronic-warfare jets, obliterate Russian command posts, air defenses, and logistics hubs in Kaliningrad and western Russia. Simultaneous cyber-operations sever Moscow’s military networks.
4. Russian Counteroffensive: Incensed, Russia fires Iskander ballistic missiles at Polish and Baltic bases and sends three armored divisions into Belarus toward Lithuania.
5. Stalemate and Attrition: NATO deploys reinforced brigades, Patriot batteries, and Aegis destroyers. Intense armored clashes in Belarus and Ukraine bog down Russian forces. Western air and naval superiority inflicts unsustainable losses.
6. Escalatory Brinkmanship: Russia threatens tactical nuclear use; NATO disperses its strategic assets and moves several SSBNs to deterrent patrol. Neither side crosses the nuclear threshold.
7. Global Diplomatic Push: Under mounting pressure from the UN, China, and India, talks begin in Geneva. NATO conditions any ceasefire on full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
8. Ceasefire & Withdrawal: By July 2025, beleaguered Russian forces pull back from all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Ukraine’s sovereignty is restored under UN guarantee, marking Russia’s strategic defeat.