My best guess having been around military intelligence people my whole life.

#1 back channels are way better than most people think.

The US contacted Iran shortly before the strikes and told them they were coming. They also told them to keep people and important things sheltered or evacuated.
The US also insured the Iranians they would avoid any critical hits for fear of nuclear material being spread.
Lastly the US says none critical hits are predicted none retaliation.

The US more or less drops bombs next to key facilities as a show of strength, like an extreme flyover.
Secondly the iranians get nice big creators they can study to see that the US can not only reach the target over head but also in depth.

Iran gets to not have nuclear facilities bombed, the US doest spread nuclear material.
Iran also gets put in its place and forced to realize there possion is untenable so that the must negotiate.

This is my schizo prospective, but I think it's possible.

>>508287576 (OP)
Interesting

>>508287576 (OP)
>#1 back channels are way better than most people think.

ISRAHELL JUST BOMBED RETARD!


>>508287655

>>508287576 (OP)
I'm going to assume that ever since the cold war, most "war" with other countries is just posturing / showing of force. Sun Tsu type shit - if you can show that you'd win if a "real battle" were to happen, then that battle never happens and everyone gets to save resources.

I'm sure if countries had their backs up to the wall, they'd start actually doing shit... but that doesnt seem to happen much anymore.

>>508287740
What if the attacks on Israel aren't what the US care about really, especially on the level they are occuring.
Frankly Israel did both start this war and spoil US talks with Iran.
Thanks for the update though.

>>508287576 (OP)
Your mistake is getting your news from an indian tabloid that claimed to get sane day satellite imagery of the region post strike before anyone else.

>>508288083
Absolutely even most open wars are just posturing.
Hell even in its time Vietnam and Afghanistan(Soviet) was acknowledged as such.

>>508288215
Iran has been attacking US forces in Iraq for the last 20 years via proxies. Iran has been attacking US forces at sea via proxies for the past 3 years. We were already at war with Iran before the recent shit with the kikes.

Maybe you remember Trump gloating over killing that Iranian general and then the missile attacks on US bases during his first term. War.

>>508288603
Yeah....
So none of that is related to the OP.

>>508288720
I was responding to your lies, imbecile.

>>508288918
An opinion can't be a lie.
Your English is weak and you are a paid shill.

This also plays into multiple actual Trump characteristics.
Iran can save a lot of face publicly.
It resets the game to negotiations and deals.
War and anything nuclear is avoided.

>>508287576 (OP)
>pic
No way there are satellite imagery OSINT already, usually it's like day after

>>508290165
Regardless of some random pic pulled off another thread the theory is the same.

The US didn't make specific claims as to the effects of the weapons.

>>508287576 (OP)
Me too, OP.

Fuck it I can't stay up all night. Save the thread, call this the "Back channels theory" and watch details that support it come out in the next few days.

>>508287576 (OP)
They were leaking the strikes 48hrs before they went in, mr fucking back channel

>>508291882
Yeah that is part of it.
Telling Iran they won't actually target anything important is the bigger part.

>>508290606
>some random pic pulled off another thread
You mean a picture that was intentional well poisoning by posting a days old satellite pic following some low level Israeli bombing campaign and trying to pass it off as the result of a US led campaign mere hours ago?

>They also told them to keep people and important things sheltered or evacuated.
Israel has already targeted the important people. You also can't evacuate important 'things' like centrifuges. That's what was being targeted.

>The US also insured the Iranians they would avoid any critical hits for fear of nuclear material being spread.
Despite their stated intention being surgical strikes on 3 specific sites to bring them entirely offline.

>The US more or less drops bombs next to key facilities as a show of strength, like an extreme flyover.
So the US flies half its B2 fleet to Iran just to make a point? Instead of flying, maybe 2, and dropping one or two bombs?

>Iran also gets put in its place and forced to realize there possion is untenable so that the must negotiate.
So your argument is that the US merely resorted to a show of force to force Iran to negotiate to not enrich Uranium when the US actually following through with that show of force would force the exact same outcome? At the exact same operational cost and with no possibility of an adverse outcome.

It's not really clear what adverse outcome you think the US is avoiding by NOT just following through with the 'act' you claim they did.

>>508292287
Israel targeted people
Israel did.

>Stated intentions
Stated

Making a point yes that is the whole point.

Can't evacuate essential things.

The US didn't target them in this theory they deliberately wide missed. Important things like trying to ship out material.

Yes I think it was all a show of force and theatrics.

>>508292771
>Yes I think it was all a show of force and theatrics.
So your argument is they spent all the money, effort and time rehearsing the outcome they wanted and then instead of enacting that exact outcome decided to just... not? In the hope that Iran would negotiate for the same outcome?

Why? Where's the incentive for the US? What does the US gain by not just doing it?

>>508293948
The US gets it's negotiations back despite Israel who is a well known back stabber.
More or less the whole move is the US getting out of the mess the Israel made.

>>508287576 (OP)
so when satelital images apppear, the dumbs bomb the wrong site, are you a retard

>>508294290
I am a retard now. I'll be a retard then too.
If I'm right, I'll still be retarded with one good guess.

>>508294138
>The US gets it's negotiations back
Negotiations for what? No nuclear enrichment? Which they could have achieved without negotiating and just bombing anyways?

Are you legitimately retarded?

>neighbour threatens to spray paint your house, is collecting spray cans in their front yard
>go round to their house with a big bag at 2am, knock on the door and threaten to take all their spray cans away
>don't
>'IT'S A GENIUS SHOW OF FORCE TACTIC, NOW MY NEIGHBOUR WILL HAVE TO NEGOTIATE NOT TO SPRAY MY HOUSE'

>>508293948
>Why? Where's the incentive for the US? What does the US gain by not just doing it?
Not being dragged into another 20 year war they will lose trillions on

>>508287576 (OP)
Or maybe they just fucking bombed their nuclear sites and fucked them up, and the Iranians are shitsucking liars pretending they didn’t get hit. Maybe that. All these fucking mental gymnastics and “muh invincible base” mentalities are bullshit and a waste of time. Stop trying to be clever and accept reality. They got bombed.

>>508294534
No. Israel blew up the talks, Iran left the table because of Israel.
Israel wanted real strikes and the US found a way to not give it to them and bring Iran back to the table.

How much do they pay you per post?

>>508294738
Cool theory, OP. Seems quite plausible. More in line with the classic "Trump 4D chess" move, for those that still entertain that idea.

You're not far off. The US didn't have to destroy it in one go. If they did great. You won't spread material if it's buried under a mountain, you just never dig there in sixty years. It was definitely a show of force and that Iran should negotiate before we actually hit it correctly or enough times. Or turn the mops on their supreme leader.

>>508287576 (OP)
>more muttoid cope

Your bombs failed, your MIC is dogshit, your army sucks. The Iranians mogged the shit out of you and are currently mercilessly bombing your chosen buddies to show their appreciation for your pitiful attempt.Deal with it.

>>508294989
>>508294725
I could rape your wives and daughters right in front of you, and you would throw out some cope about how that is totally part of the masterplan to win in two weeks. Your minds have been utterly broken by decades of nonstop propaganda.

>>508294982
It's a guess but I think if Trump was calling the shots he would not pull the trigger without insuring nothing nuclear got involved.

>>508294989
Yeah there is more than one way to play this situation. It's possible they did the right damage to achieve the same goals.

>>508287576 (OP)
This makes a lot of sense I suspect it's the truth or close to. Trump wants ***A DEAL*** but the Iranians weren't talking. This is his way of forcing them to the table.

But they're stubborn, maybe they already have enough material for a few bombs hidden away and consider the refinement program a write off at this point, and would rather wear Israel down by keeping this missile tit for tat going forever, and taking a few potshots at tankers to drive the oil price to the moon.

They have options to fuck with the US and Israel and everyone else if they want to...

>>508289053
the fucker has been shilling in a bunch of threads

>>508295157
>>508295267
Hans Al Mohammed, sit down before they deport you.

>>508287576 (OP)

>>508295690
More or less yeah.

>>508294738
>No. Israel blew up the talks, Iran left the table because of Israel.
Blew up the talks for what anon? What were the talks to achieve? No enrichment? Like would be achieving by bombing the enrichment plants? With all the equipment and logistics you say they put in place but then decided not to do at the last second to force Iran to reopen talks? To stop the enrichment they could have just stopped by actually bombing?

>How much do they pay you per post?
Holy fuck the astounding retardation of this shithole never fails to amaze. Challenged with a logical chain of thought and anons brains break and default to SHILL SHILL SHILL.

>>508294738
>>508294534
>'my other neighbour #2 derailed the talks I was having with neighbour #1, asking them not to spray paint my house and is in favour of simply stealing all his paint cans away!'
>'I know what Ill do, I'll go round to his house and put all the cans in a bag and knock on his door and THREATEN to take them away'
>'That'll force him back to the negotiating table to stop him from painting my house with the cans I threatened to but didn't take away!'

>>508297356
You are over the line of trolling when you pretend to not know that Israel blew up the US nuclear talks.
You are just attempting to drag the thread off topic. You reacted more to the payment question than anything else, that's called a trigger.
So the only question I ask is how much per post?

>>508287576 (OP)
or your fucking 55 million dollar firecracker failed to punch through and damage any of Iran's nuclear facilities

>>508297356
Ops point is that (in theory) The benefit of not actually "doing it" is that Iran would be willing to negotiate without further escalation. It's not as retarded as you're making it out, but it may have just been a real strike and should be taken at face value.

As info comes out in the coming days we'll get a better idea of what's actually going on.

>>508287576 (OP)
Is it possible to spot take out these bombers? If Iran achieved that it would've been a huge flex.

>>508297906
I think deep down the word "nuclear" rightly freaks out Trump.
He would take a much less agreeable deal if it meant taking anything nuclear off the table, that includes the deal he has to cut with the military on the objectives of strikes.

Two problems:
Trump already boasted about the targets being obliterated
satellite photos may prove otherwise

Trump could do his usual thing and say 'art of teh deal, art of teh deal' which is his go-to excuse for whenever he has egg on his face, but the US public (including people who were formerly part of his base) is increasingly sick of being lied to. His only rock solid totally loyal constituency is the Q/hyperreligious types who are not only morons but Maoist level fanatics

>>508298882
He didn't say obliterated. He said successful.
Language matters anon.
(Idk all his quotes)

>>508297674
>when you pretend to not know that Israel blew up the US nuclear talks.
I'm not pretending that at all. I'm saying the objective of the talks is exactly the same objective of the bombing. Given the talks were ended, the US was forced by Israel to take the force route. You're arguing they feigned the force route to get back to the start of the negotiations route which had the same end goal as just finishing the force route.

It's like if you were trying to walk from A to B via a cycleway or a motorway and Israel blocked the motorway so you bought a bike and cycled for a week all the way up to 6ft from B and then said OK NOW WILL YOU ALLOW US TO GO BACK TO THE START OF THE MOTORWAY SO I CAN DRIVE TO B INSTEAD???

You are painfully, painfully stupid.

>>508297906
Your argument hinges on the the assumption the 'further escalation' associated with an actual strike outweighs the uncertainty and risk in pursuing a negotiated settlement. Frankly the Iranians don't really have any further escalation that would render a negotiated settlement favourable and the perceived risk of an unnegotiated settlement (continued enrichment) is too great. The risk of an unnegotiated settlement and negative externalities associated clearly outweight the risk of 'further escalation' given a de facto strike. That's evidently the calculus that was done by both Israel and the US govt.

If Iran was regularly levelling square miles of Tel Aviv I would understand the argument but it's relatively weak.

OP's scenario also posits an extraordinary cost and show of force to evidence a simple threat (we can bomb you) which could have been achieved with far, far less resource expenditure.

>>508287576 (OP)
no because trump is not smart enough to do this type of thinking sorry. it was a strike on iran on israels behalf its literally that simple

>>508299197
Not reading it. Enjoy the rage.

>>508298503
no, Iran doesn't have the capability to shoot down a B-2 Stealth Bomber

>>508301626
This. If the barbarians ever had capabilities to attack, they would have already. Truly it is no different than shooting fish in an empty barrel.

>>508287576 (OP)
Why is there no drone footage of bombed sites? You'd think in a year of information, yeah looks like a massive blunder.

I think the OP is plausible and the fact that apparent tryhard argumentative glownigger shills of the upper rung of covert jannying are so dedicatedly kvetching to prevent me considering this as even a remote possibility is the only proofs I need to confirm it