Anonymous
ID: OFrv8yeO
6/23/2025, 12:35:35 PM No.508444136
>Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Professor at Middlebury Institute & Staff at James Martin Center of Non-Proliferation Studies:
>'Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the U.S. have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures.
>Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that 'Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs — nine.' He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider.
>The 400kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and U.S. attacks on the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them.
>No one even knows where the HEU is now! Rafael Grossi says Iran moved it. Marco Rubio says 'nothing can move' in Iran. But trucks are moving in Iran. Trucks and heavy equipment showed up at least two days ago to seal the tunnels to protect them, and there is visual evidence of this. Trucks also showed up at the Fordow FEP the day before the strike, possibly to relocate sensitive equipment, and certainly to cover those entrances with dirt. Iran just isn't a no-drive zone at the moment.
>To be fair, some in the Trump admin do acknowledge Iran still has the enriched material. J.D. Vance says they're going to 'have conversations with the Iranians about' it.
>The talking point is that the U.S. has knocked out Iran's ability to further enrich it and convert it to metal, so 'its fine'.
IT'S NOT FINE. Yes, the strikes on the enrichment plants at Qom (Fordow FEP) and Natanz (PFEP and FEP) appear successful. But there has been no effort to strike the enormous underground facility next to Natanz where Iran can make more centrifuges and maybe do other
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>'Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the U.S. have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures.
>Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that 'Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs — nine.' He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider.
>The 400kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and U.S. attacks on the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them.
>No one even knows where the HEU is now! Rafael Grossi says Iran moved it. Marco Rubio says 'nothing can move' in Iran. But trucks are moving in Iran. Trucks and heavy equipment showed up at least two days ago to seal the tunnels to protect them, and there is visual evidence of this. Trucks also showed up at the Fordow FEP the day before the strike, possibly to relocate sensitive equipment, and certainly to cover those entrances with dirt. Iran just isn't a no-drive zone at the moment.
>To be fair, some in the Trump admin do acknowledge Iran still has the enriched material. J.D. Vance says they're going to 'have conversations with the Iranians about' it.
>The talking point is that the U.S. has knocked out Iran's ability to further enrich it and convert it to metal, so 'its fine'.
IT'S NOT FINE. Yes, the strikes on the enrichment plants at Qom (Fordow FEP) and Natanz (PFEP and FEP) appear successful. But there has been no effort to strike the enormous underground facility next to Natanz where Iran can make more centrifuges and maybe do other
1/2
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