How embarrassed is this retard gook high school teacher 'game theory' expert right now?
In all his analysis he never stopped to consider that maybe Iran doesn't want the US to launch a ground invasion because, regardless of how unwinnable that conflict will ultimately be for the US, it would almost certainly mean the end of the current Iranian regime?
What a fucking joke.

Can't wait to laugh at his upcoming super informed take on the religious dynamics of this situation kek.

>>508539480 (OP)
I’d like to see his reaction when the USA destroys the three gorges dam.

>>508539480 (OP)
so many experts think in black and white terms - it's pathetic and i'm not even trying to sound pretentious.

>>508539480 (OP)
>it would almost certainly mean the end of the current Iranian regime?
why would it?
he already covered this in one of his videos. He says it would take decades with proper boots on the ground interference to replace the regime, the same way america tried to do it in Afghanistan.

>>508539480 (OP)
I just finished watching his US civil war 2 video. He said trump could get a 3rd term by campaigning as VP - which is impossible and easily disproven. It shows he doesn't know as much about things as /pol/ thinks he does

>>508540418
first post best post

shame you're a flaggot

>>508539480 (OP)
>How embarrassed is this retard gook high school teacher 'game theory' expert right now?
>In all his analysis he never stopped to consider that maybe everything is fake and gay and nothing ever happens

He's cool, stop making fun of him. I like Jiang

>>508539480 (OP)
His model of Trump is also wrong. He assumes Trump is a ruthless dictator like Putin which is way off. He assumes that if Trump is hit by Iran then Trump will retaliate and escalate with an invasion. While he's correct that Trump wants to hold onto power as long as possible, he's incorrect that Trump will deliberately tear the US apart to do it

>>508542873
>he's incorrect that Trump will deliberately tear the US apart to do it
that sounds a lot like trump kek
but I did watch quite a few of his videos and he explores these ideas more in them, to him this is more about the petrodollar and the world losing faith in it. According to him putin invading ukraine kind of showed america is just a papertiger, and that america will have to get involved with iran at some point to keep faith in the dollar up and to prevent a ton of economic damage from them not being able to pay back debt.
He also talks about how much oil flows throw iran, how japan buys a ton of usd and relies on it, etc.
I'm not economist but it makes a lot of sense. The petrodollar is kept alive by the us military's invasions as we've seen in the past, the conflict is more than just trump.

>one chinese professor stopped ww3 because if it started americans would have to admit he was right
based jiang, thank you professor! the saviour of mankind

>>508539480 (OP)
he's a china shill
and not really good at it

>>508543254
>that sounds a lot like trump kek
nah Trump is actually a coward. even when he was trying to overthrow the election he got his goons to do it and he was also careful to avoid getting his hands dirty. Trump is like a deer that runs off whenever trouble is near. He learned this from his days as a sketchy CEO. He's more careful with his tongue and actions than most people think. He isn't going to do a coup or deliberately start a civil war to stay in power. He'll definitely try to install a puppet president in 2028 (jd vance, his son, or another maga republican) and rule from mar-a-lago though.

HOWEVER, he still may cause a civil war with his abuse of power. States might secede and he'll send troops to dispose of the 'rogue crazy governors' and restore america

>>508542210
If that is what he actually said then he is retarded.
Afghan regimes had been coming and going continuously for decades before the US invaded. They had been dealing with civil wars and Soviet military intervention. They were still in the midst of civil conflict when the US invaded in 2001, and it is arguable as to whether the Taliban can even be said to have been the leadership of Afghanistan at that time. Certainly it was contested, and certainly they were still function as a revolutionary military insurgency. It is in no way analogous to Iran, which has had a stable government for over 40 years.
That type of government which is dependent on institutional control does not survive a military invasion from the US in the same way a revolutionary insurgency like the Taliban or the Viet Cong do.

>>508539480 (OP)
I'd like to see his reaction when it's revealed Cuckmeini is dead

>>508539480 (OP)
A ground invasion still represents the optimal outcome for both Iran and Israel. Because the US hesitates doesn't change this fact. Besides, why are you jumping the gun already, the conflict is still simmering.

>>508539480 (OP)
Buy an ad chink
This is a Zeihanist board and we practice zeihanism around here. 2 more weeks and your whole country is fucked for good.

All of my energies are being directed to manifest the Trump Ultimatum: If China invades Taiwan, the US will invade and annex all of Canada and Greenland, then ally Russia to kick the shit out of China one more time before the magnetosphere collapse

>>508544152
whatever happened to that guy bush put into power? He fled to Switzerland or some shit?

>>508544171
All of /pol/ was jumping the gun the last 48 hours when they were saying that Trump just entered the US into a protected middle East conflict while the few of us with a brain were saying that the airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities were clearly designed to eliminate the excuse for the Zionists and neocons to continue escalation.
So today it is my turn to jump the gun and say I was right.
A ground invasion is not the optimal outcome for the Iranian regime. Maybe it is for Iran as an abstract idea. But the decisions being made by Iran right now are being made by members of a regime which would not survive a ground invasion by the US.
The Chinaman was also retarded to suggest that a ground invasion is Trump's optimum outcome. This was the peak of his retardation in this video. Trump may hate the global elite, but he cares a whole lot more about his legacy than he does about sinking the US out of spite. Trump can see his coalition of support crumbling the more he sides with Israel. He may have a stomach full of Jewish semen but he also has eyes and can see that there is only so much Jewish snot cock he can swallow before everything he has worked for is completely ruined.
It is obvious that his 'game theory' objective would be to avoid protracted war. The only way this would not be the case is if the Israelis really did have extreme black mail on him. But the Chinaman didn't mention this so I'm not gonna give him that out. His analysis is just wrong.

>>508544152
>That type of government which is dependent on institutional control does not survive a military invasion from the US in the same way a revolutionary insurgency like the Taliban or the Viet Cong do.
I don't see why not, the terrain of iran can make it possible. How exactly would the us get rid of the regime considering how big iran is? I can't really see it happening unless the US plans to spend the next few decades inside of iran carefully propping up a government (assuming the invasion is successful). Even if we assume they can place a puppet regime in its spot, how long is it going to last before getting toppled? Persians are pretty nationalistic people too, they're not going to stand by and get ruled by a puppet government, the US will have to pull out eventually.
It's going to create a huge power vacuum in the region and probably just lead to isis 2.0 and another islamic regime like we've already seen happen.

>>508545388
The reason is that a stable government holds power by offering a certain quality of life to its members.
That is where the base of power ends up settling.
Of course when shit hits the fan there will be loyalists who seek to protect the Supreme Leader at all costs. But the internal chaos of a situation like that means that the outcome is highly unpredictable. The success or failure of any kind of US puppet government is a completely different question to whether or not the current ruling class would be able to continue to exert any authority in that scenario.
And at the end of the day the people making the military decisions in Iran have nice homes and send their kids to nice schools. While it is tempting to idealise them as Persian patriots to the core willing to sacrifice everything to defeat the evil American Empire, the truth is that they are just humans, and they don't want to lose their lifestyle, watch friends and family get slaughtered by the US and spend the next decade hiding in some mountain cave or hole in the ground.
The Iran regime is not a military insurgency and they don't make decisions like one. They want to maintain their institutional control over Iran, which means maintaining those institutions, all their different ministries and economic activities etc. These institutions would not survive a US ground invasion.