Now, when the dust has settled...
Who won?

Me!

>>509688864 (OP)
glass and concrete merchants

Israel Lost... Iran Lost... Sugargnome Berry Pie Won!

>>509688864 (OP)
>iranian (russian) air defence
Proven to be a scam
>iranian intellegence
Got blindsided by mossad pajeet goons at the beginning
>iranian mountains
Victory
>israeli iron dome
A scam
>israeli munitions
American taxpayers crying out in hunger right now
>israel
Got smashed needed to get a ceasefire to restock
>iran
Got humiliated in the first few days

>>509688864 (OP)
Who ran to daddy Trump begging for a ceasefire? Not Iran.

>>509688864 (OP)
Here's Proof That Israel Lost the War:

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/heres-proof-that-israel-lost-the-war/

>Axis of resistance
Smashed
>Assad
Gone
>Hezbollah
Neutered
>Gaza
Flattened
>Iran nuclear program
Bombed

Clearly Iran won.

>>509688864 (OP)
it aint over yet

>>509688864 (OP)
Iran since the U.S. lost extremely hard. Violated the NPT by demanding 0 enrichment, which means that international law means nothing and Iran buying nukes from NK/Pakistan is completely ethical.

>>509688864 (OP)
those who bet on nothing

>>509689215
Your article uses pictures of Gaza and says they're of Tel Aviv. Do better.

>>509690202
Israel won so hard they had to threaten jail time for releasing pictures of the damage.

>>509690202
>Your article uses pictures of Gaza and says they're of Tel Aviv.

What's your proof of this?

>>509688864 (OP)
Last time it was the Arabs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S130T3T6mpU

>>509688864 (OP)
Israel was bleeding pretty badly as it couldn't withstand the missile strikes for longer. It can't win an extended war. Militarily Israel had the upper hand thanks to 24/7 US intell and ECM support but it was really struggling in those last days. Iran showed some really bad planning and foresight in that it lacked investment in a credible air force and relied entirely on BMs.

>>509688864 (OP)
It was Israel that practically gagged for a ceasefire so I guess Iran, Israel is a tiny country so the damage would be much more pronounced.

>>509688864 (OP)
Israel won. They accomplished their objectives. Iran lost, they got btfo

>>509688864 (OP)
Stalemate, status quo ante bellum. Nothing really changed.

Which is arguably a defeat for Israel. Israel is the one that needs to alter the status quo. Iran has time on its side, because Israel's overseas benefactors, on which it so heavily depends, are powers in decline. US sanctions on Iran are becoming less respected for each year that passes.

>>509691651
<-- for example

>>509688864 (OP)
Iran, clearly
Their objectives were to survive, not get in a war with the US, make themselves look reasonable and Israel look bad, and keep their enriched uranium and enrichment capabilities
It accomplished all, and Israel gave up before it could complete their objectives
Winning a war is not about k:d ratio or looking cool, otherwise we'd have "won" Vietnam

>>509689281
Iran now has an effective long range missile force, so they're no longer dependent on Hezbollah for deterrence against Israel. Assad's Syria only mattered for resupplying Hezbollah. Gaza has never been relevant, except in the PR realm. The Houthis are still as alive and kicking as ever, it seems.

Even if the Fordo facility was destroyed (which it might not have been) there's still the Pickaxe Mountain facility and the super-hardened part of the Esfahan facility. Iran's 400kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is still out there somewhere.

This is why I say that nothing has really changed.

>>509689199
For me personall it was an iran win. Because israel both failed with their objectives to destroy the nuke programm and stations and also to make a regime change.

>>509692142
with it they managed to cause less harm than iraq in 1991
so they needed their axis but it's no longer there

>>509688864 (OP)
Given that Iran's supposed nuclear weapons programme was obviously just a pretext to attempt the destruction of their state, and this objective was not achieved by the aggressor Israel, Iran has won. The fact that they also bombed Tel-Aviv and Haifa to shit is just the icing on the cake, but it is offset by their own losses.

>>509692142
Houthis just took out an Israeli ship in the Red Sea lmao

>>509692679
Based towelheads

>>509688864 (OP)

unironically anyone claiming iran won is a brown shill
no i don't care im posting with my geoflag
it's the truth
> absolutely humiliated on the global stage
> list of dead generals is longer than the total of israeli casualties
> nuclear program is ruins
> nuclear scientists are dead
> ballistic missiles program is in ruins
> air defenses simply ceased to exist
> 1000ish dead they of which the vast majority are adult males and thus military

while their achievements are
>damage to the haifa refinery
which is already operating at most of it's capacity
>hit on a university building housing biochem labs
>hit on a hospital
>several hits on civilian residential buildings
>27 civilians and 1 solider killed

hilarious

>>509693157
You are on /pol/ here mate. Everyone knows you are lying.

>>509693261
refute any point
including the brown accusation (by posting your hand)

>>509693359
You are a kike. You need to post proves (you wont).

>>509693429
ye i figured that much brownie

>>509693157
>unironically anyone claiming iran won is a brown shill
white as the driven snow and it ain't over til it's over, kike. tho i don't give a shit about iran.

>>509692350
What matters isn't really the damage Iran caused. What matters is what damage Iran made Israeli/American leadership believe it could've caused. It seems Iran successfully demonstrated that, despite the June 13 surprise attack, they still retained the ability to inflict unacceptable damage. If the conflict had escalated further, Iran could for example have targeted semiconductor foundries in Israel or shut the strait of Hormuz. And they could've delivered nuclear warheads, if they built them.

We can see this in the timeline of the conflict. Trump was demanding unconditional surrender and Netanyahu was talking about "creating the conditions for liberating the Iranian people". Trump was telling people to evacuate Tehran. Then they decided to just drop the MOP and declare mission accomplished.

Besides, I'm not sure it's even really possible for outsiders to accurately asses the level of damage caused, given censorship on all sides.

>>509693789
yeah and they showed that by the severe and quick reduction of firepower
with smaller and smaller volleys

>>509693510
You straight up begged the mutts to start a war agains Iran. They refused. KEK.

>Brownie
The entire shithouse of India is on your team btw.

>>509693157
Israeli certainly had the advantage in the air, but I think it's an exaggeration to say that Iranian "air defenses simply ceased to exist".

Didn't Israel use a standoff weapon to attack the unfinished IR-40 reactor? Is this not an indication that they still worried about Iranian AD, even when attacking such a a relatively remote and unimportant target in western Iran several days into the conflict?

There's also footage of what looks like Spice-1000 standoff bombs being used

Iran also released footage of AD downing some Hermes-900 and Eitan drones

>>509693945
I don't think a reduction in the number of launches is proof of a reduction in launch ability

Iran seemed to be trying to "tit for tat" principle. This is logical, because it incentivizes the opponent to restrain himself. For example, after Israel bombed Imam Hussein University, Iran bombed the Weizmann Institute. After Israel bombed Shahr-e Rey refinery, Iran bombed Haifa refinery. After Israel bombed some energy infrastructure in Iran, Iran (bombed Haifa power plant (according to this video), although it seems they didn't manage to hit any turbine, since the power didn't go out
https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/1934426729071907242

So Iran's launch intensity should've been approximately in line with Israeli bombing intensity.

Logically, the operational tempo of Israel's air force would've decreased after the first few days of maximum sorties to exploit the element of surprise. Furthermore, as Iran began launching drone volleys, some of Israeli aircraft would've been needed to be reallocated from offensive use to defensive use. So Israel's bombing rate likely fell after the first few days. Thus it is only logical that Iran's launch rate also dropped.

I've also heard it said that the missile interception rate fell over the course of the conflict, because Iran started using higher quality missiles after first causing Israel to waste interceptors by yeeting a ton of obsolete trash

>>509688864 (OP)
America won. You lost.

>>509692204
/thread

>>509688864 (OP)
>Israel pounded and parts of Tel Aviv looked like Gaza
>Many other military and infrastructure sites hit in Israel which are being hidden from the media
>Iron Dome useless and out of interceptors which are expensive and take time to manufacture
>Iran definitely managed to get their enriched uranium our of sites that were bombed
>Many more countries that were hostile to Iran are now sympathetic eg Pakistan
>Iran now told the IAEA to fuck off and no more inspections
>It is now harder to monitor Iran's nuclear program than it was before this faggotry
Iran won

>>509694034
invited you to prove me wrong
which you won't - we both know why
anyway, if that wasn't obvious, we played the bad cop while the us played the good cop. nothing more than that.
>>509694187
iran only has only some point defense left
not much different than what hezbollah has just with triple A
as a network it's nonexistent
>>509694728
iranian missiles have a CEP of a kilometer
they can't aim for high value targets effectively
and the cope they were holding back after loosing all their generals is hilarious
the reduction is easily explained
>number of TELs
that israel destroyed
>setting up TELs more covertly
to avoid more destruction
and
>attacks on missile bases
from destroying much of the base destroying the missiles themselves to blowing up the entrances to deny access to the missiles inside (as well as attacking heavy equipment trying to dig them open)

>>509688864 (OP)
israels air defense with american support cant last a week in any war

This makes russian war on ukraine appear impressive

>>509694728
>israeli attacks reduced
yeah ok buddy
>better missiles
iranian missiles don't really have anything in their arsenal to avoid air defenses
they have no HGVs and beyond that maneuvering at the terminal phase is incredibly pointless unless you're tracking a moving target like a large vessel
since you need so much energy to change your direction slightly so the little trajectory change you can make doesn't give you much

the only thing they could've done is use cluster warheads
which in the end they did

>>509693157
>unironically anyone claiming iran won is a brown shill
I am white and you are not. Kikes are not white.
>absolutely humiliated on the global stage
Ridiculous, Israel made the world more sympathetic to Iran
> list of dead generals is longer than the total of israeli casualties
Many on that list are now found to be alive
> nuclear program is ruins
You don't know that an I don't believe it's the case. At most they will no longer use the sites that were bombed.
> nuclear scientists are dead
The nuclear knowledge does not disappear with the killing of a few scientists.
> ballistic missiles program is in ruins
They kept hitting Israel with better and better missiles right until the end of the 12 days
> air defenses simply ceased to exist
This is an exaggeration, plenty of hermes and other drones were getting shot down
> 1000ish dead they of which the vast majority are adult males and thus military
Iran is more careful to avoid civilian casualties than Israel
>while their achievements are
...kept secret by Israel

>>509696203
>I am white and you are not. Kikes are not white.
again i welcome you to prove me wrong
but you wont
>Ridiculous, Israel made the world more sympathetic to Iran
made me chuckle
>Many on that list are now found to be alive
nope
will post the entire list in a second post
point at one that is
>You don't know that an I don't believe it's the case. At most they will no longer use the sites that were bombed.
>they will have to start over
ye
>The nuclear knowledge does not disappear with the killing of a few scientists.
that's why the assassination of single scientists proved ineffective
wait no it proved very effective
and now it's a bunch at once
>They were firing at Israel fewer and fewer missiles
ftfy
>This is an exaggeration, plenty of hermes and other drones were getting shot down
who cares about drones
all they have left is point defense and even that's limited
>Iran is more careful to avoid civilian casualties than Israel
which is greater 1/28 or over 1/2?
>...kept secret by Israel
lmao cope
you're free to open sentinel hub and look for that super secret damage that definitely exists
btw why did iran shut off their own internet again?

>>509695353
>iranian missiles have a CEP of a kilometer
Iran has a mix of old and new missiles. Didn't the "True Promise" attacks demonstrate that at least some of the missiles are quite accurate? There's also the link I posted, which showed missiles that seemed to demonstrate much less than a 1km CEP

>not much different than what hezbollah has just with triple A
They released some footage of shoot-downs using missiles, and there is footage of some wreckages. Obviously, only close-range systems will yield footage; in long range engagements the target will be too far away for telescopes to yield discernable footage. These are specific links to some missile action footage that I could recall. I saw a few more, but I don't remember where exactly I saw them.
https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1933953573194522646
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MsP6F9Zv4Q (starts at 0:40)

>TELs destroyed
TELs are mechanically simple and should be super cheap. I doubt TELs could ever be a constraining factor. If there was a constraining factor, it seems more likely to me it would've been the clearing of tunnels collapsed by bombs.

I saw an analysis of footage released by the IDF. According to that, there was only footage of 45 TELs destroyed, and some of that footage was likely to have been of decoys or duplicate footage of the same TEL. Although I did not personally verify this conclusion by watching all the footage. I don't remember where I saw this analysis.

There being reduction in Iranian launch ability is theoretically possible, but that explanation seems to be eliminated by the timeline of the conflict that I mentioned above; Trump and Netanyahu seemed to drastically scale back the war aims and went for an excuse to declare mission accomplished and take a quick exit.

>>509696203
>Lt. Gen. Hossein Salami – IRGC Commander-in-Chief
>Lt. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri – Chief of General Staff
>Lt. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid – Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ Commander
>Lt. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid (his replacement, also killed shortly after)
>Brig. Gen. Mehdi Rabbani – Deputy Chief of General Staff for Operations
>Maj. Gen. Gholamreza Mehrabi – Deputy Head of Military Intelligence
>Maj. Gen. Mohammad Kazemi – Head of IRGC Intelligence Organization
>Maj. Gen. Mohsen Bagheri – Deputy Head, IRGC Intelligence
>Brig. Gen. Hassan Mohakek – Deputy Head, IRGC Intelligence
>Maj. Gen. Mohammad Jafar Asadi – Deputy Inspector General, Khatam HQ
>Maj. Gen. Mohammad Reza Nasir Bagban – IRGC intelligence rep
>Brig. Gen. Masoud Shanaei – Chief of Staff to the IRGC Commander
>Maj. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh – IRGC Aerospace Force Commander
>Brig. Gen. Amir Purjodaki – Deputy Cmdr, IRGC Aerospace
>Brig. Gen. Khosro Hassani – Deputy Intelligence, IRGC Aerospace
>Brig. Gen. Davoud Sheikhian – IRGC Air Defense Commander
>Brig. Gen. Mohammad Baqer Taherpour – IRGC UAV Unit Commander
>Brig. Gen. Mansour Safarpour – IRGC Aerospace Cmdr, Tehran
>Brig. Gen. Masoud Tayeb – IRGC Aerospace
>Brig. Gen. Javad Jarsara – IRGC Aerospace
>Brig. Gen. Mohammad Said Izadi – Head of Palestine Desk, Quds Force
>Brig. Gen. Behnam Shahriari – Commander of Unit 190, Quds Force
>Maj. Gen. Amir Mozaffarnia – Head of SPND (Defense R&D Organization)
>Brig. Gen. Mohammad Taghi Yousefvand – Basij Intelligence Chief
>Gen. Meysam Rizvanpour – Deputy Cmdr, Basij (Social Affairs)
>Brig. Gen. Seyed Mojtaba Moeinpour – IRGC Chief of Staff, Alborz
>Brig. Gen. Mojtaba Karami – Deputy Cmdr, IRGC Alborz Province
>Brig. Gen. Akbar Enayati – Deputy Cmdr for Social Affairs, IRGC Alborz
>Gen. Alireza Lotfi – Chief of Police Intelligence Org (SAFA)
>Brig. Gen. Abbas Nouri – Deputy Logistics Cmdr, SW Ground Forces HQ

>>509696866
>there is footage of some wreckages
of drones that fly at too high altitude for AA guns to reach, such as Hermes-900

>>509688864 (OP)
>Who won?
Israel won of course, because
(1) Israel started the twelve-day conflict,
(2) the deaths, injuries, and destruction in Iran were greater than those in Israel,
(3) Israel had better military equipment,
(4) Israeli F-35Is were freely violating Iranian airspace,
(5) et cetera.
Iran doesn't want its populace to despair and defect.

>>509695734
Iran has some more modern, more maneuverable missiles such as the Fattah, Haj Qasem and Kheybarshekan, which should be much harder to intercept than older missiles. These look like biconical designs similar to the US Common Hypersonic Glide Body, or at least maneuverable like the old Pershing II

Israel has terminal phase interceptors so I don't see why terminal phase maneuvering would be pointless

>>509696866
>Didn't the "True Promise" attacks demonstrate that at least some of the missiles are quite accurate?
no it did the opposite
>They released some footage of shoot-downs using missiles, and there is footage of some wreckages.
the 358 missiles
not a threat to jets and falls under point defense
it's the same capability hezbollah has
>TELs
most of the attacks aren't filmed or aren't conducted by a munition that can even film
TELs for SRBMs are simple
not for MRBMs
i don't know how long would it take iran to manufacture it
but for a reference chatgpt is estimating months for a single unit - which has to be taken with a grain of salt
but even at a rate of one a month that's still years
and that's not considering the plants israel targeted

>>509690643
the arabs are in the middle this time, and they are getting collateral'd on both sides sadly.

>>509697475
it's just MaRVs
which again if you want to maneuver significantly you have to slow down. also if you want your sensors to see anything
iranian HGVs are as real as their stealth jet
also fun fact their benefit is avoiding air defenses in the mid phase not in the terminal

>>509688864 (OP)

>>509693789
>or shut the strait of Hormuz
But that would piss off China big time!

>>509697544
This is the footage of southern Nevatim airbase after TP-2 that I saw. There looks to be some accurate hits. To my knowledge, no footage was released of Tel Nof airbase or the larger northern section of Nevatim airbase, which a cynical person would interpret as the damage there being worse, since the companies that released the footage have the US government as their main customer and wouldn't want to embarrass either the US or Israel

>>509697909
I assume in the mid phase they would mainly rely on decoys

>>509697978
It might, although, relatively speaking, China is less reliant on oil than the US is. Iran could also try to imply a selective blockade. In any case, I don't think Iran would care that much about what China thought about it, unless China was doing more to help Iran out.

The Japanese had what looked like a clear and decisive victory until about 4 months after they attacked Pearl Harbor.

>>509698055
yeah bro they aimed for sand and asphalt
considering the base is about 5km by 5km disregarding the non essential buildings on the right
abysmal performance
>>509698157
nonsense

>>509697544
Eitan has a ceiling of 14km. 358 looks a bit tiny for use against that kind of target. The claimed ceiling for 358 I've seen is 8.5km.

>TELs for SRBMs are simple
>not for MRBMs
What's the additional complexity

>>509698476
I've also seen that pic but the resolution is way too bad to tell anything. That pic seemed to me like it might just as well be propaganda designed to fuddle the issue, for all I could tell. Since there is higher resolution footage of south Nevatim there should be higher resolution footage of north Nevatim, but such footage has to my knowledge not been released.

The higher res pic shows there are some hit runways, taxiways and a hangar, with reasonable precision. Those are the kind of targets you want to hit in a war. So the attack seems to have successfully demonstrated this capability.

>>509688864 (OP)
It doesn't matter, there's no winner in a war.

>>509698476
>nonsense
Why is it nonsense? Decoys are the standard mid-course defense mechanism for ballistic missiles, based on what I've read about the matter.

>>509698662
that's the UI of that missile
it's definitely a 358 that shot it down
>What's the additional complexity
has to be both scaled up and beefier while being requiring higher precision

>>509699054
because if you launched a decoy ballistic missile you just wasted a ballistic missile
it would only make sense in a nuclear attack
MIRV can have decoys but that requires a higher payload missile to have MIRVs in the first place

>>509688864 (OP)
Considering Iran exhauting all of Israel's air defense muntions and interceptors and were still bombing the shit out of them...Iran. Israel pretty much had to beg for help from the US and wanted a ceasefire. This nation of cockroaches is used to fighting wars against civilian militias and non-combatants, not a nation with actual military might. If left to their devices Iran would have done the human race a favor and wiped this cesspool of fucking subhumans off the face of the earth.

>>509699081
Maybe they developed an improved version of 358 that can be used against Eitan then

>has to be scaled up
Obviously it needs to be bigger, but I don't think that is much of a cost driver. The kind of items they're designed to be used with are ballistic missiles; enlarging the metal frame and erection mechanism seems like a relatively modest investment in comparison to enlarging the missile. They use commercial grade tractor vehicles for all TELs as far as I've seen.

Anyway, I don't deny that it's a theoretically possible explanation that Iran might've run low on TELs, but that explanation seems to be contradicted by the political decisions that we could observe. Netanyahu and Trump had far better information, and we could observe their decision-making based on that information.

>>509693157
Everyone knows Israel is lying about the extent of damage and about the casualties. True casualties are undoubtedly higher. Israel is all about pretending to be strong when its weak.

>>509699199
You'd deploy the decoy from the same missile that carries the warhead. Decoys can be very light. They don't need to have the mass of a reentry vehicle, they just need to reasonably accurately simulate the radar and thermal emissions of a reentry vehicle. If they are inflatable, they can also be physically very small. It's similar to the MIRV principle, but you don't necessarily need a fully fledged MIRV system just to deploy a few decoys.

I don't know if Iranian missiles have this capability; details of any such capabilities would likely be kept secret.

I've also heard it claimed that they convert some obsolete boosters to deploy decoys and fire them off along with real missiles.

>>509699627
it's heavy and precise equipment
>They use commercial grade tractor vehicles for all TELs as far as I've seen.
maybe to shoot rocket artillery not ballistic missiles
>>509699724
the old cope of
>you killed so many of us so we must've killed more of you
>>509699872
so its trajectory will be tracked and give out a ballistic curve that won't hit
>inflatable
you are trying to fool a radar not a human visual observer

>>509700064
A decoy would be put into almost the same ballistic trajectory as the reentry vehicle. It'd coast along just a few meters away; SM-3, THAAD and Arrow-3 interceptors require a direct hit.

>you are trying to fool a radar not a human visual observer
The interceptor seeker uses a thermal camera. At least I know THAAD and SM-3 do. The decoy would also be made of a radar-reflecting material, or have a radar reflector unfold inside of it as it inflates.

I'll say I'm not an expert on this subject; I've only read some texts that made a convincing case that decoys make mid course interception much more difficult and expensive

>>509700728
it won't have the same ballistic trajectory because it's mass and velocity are off and it has no propulsion
if it does its again a waste of a ballistic missile

its all radar
reentry is MIRV since thats in the terminal phase
with can have decoys
but for that you need MIRVs
which requires a larger payload and a much more complex missile

>>509696829
Basically responding to all my points with "nuh uh" cope more lol
>>509696890
Admiral Ali Shamkhani
General Esmail Qaani
General Abdulrahim Mousavi
Defence Minister Zadeh
All alive, Israel had said they were dead lol

>>509688864 (OP)
iran.....

iran faced down the US and it's 51st state in the middle east.................................. the most powerful military in the world utilizing the stagnant technology stolen from Adolph Hitler's Third Reich couldn't achieve the US's terroristic goals in Iran...........

muslims are heroes the world hasn't seen since the Spartan 300 and the jews are satanic devils who kill babies, drink baby blood and have sex with the dead and alive baby bodies............

Iran