so how does this end? the redline is the borders of what Russia says is their territory. can they take all of the 4 oblasts?
>I doubt they ever cross the river in Kherson
>they haven't even pushed towards Zaporizhzhia during the entire war
>they need to take Pokrovsk before even thinking about going for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk which would be the biggest battle(s) of the war if they go for the 2 cities in Donetsk
>already have all of Luhansk

>>511179916 (OP)
It's going to end when Russia gets to the edge of collapse. They'll sue for peace and there will be a dmz set up along the current line of contact and that will be the border. North Korea South Korea situation with Ukraine. NATO will arm Ukraine like never before and Russia will fortify that border too. But nothing more will happen.

They would most likely settle for what they have actually conquered.
Claiming more is a old negotiating tactic.
>I want all of that
>How about half
>Fineeee, you can't say I negotiated in bad faith
Of course, Russia wants more, but it's not worth the price at this point.

>>511180030
>It's going to end when Russia gets to the edge of collapse.
2 more weeks.

>>511180114
It's only a matter of time, sooner or later. Another year? Another week? Who knows but they can't keep taking inches at time with high cost forever.

>>511180030
Russia has the resources to legitimately prolong this indefinitely, but it would be extremely draining to do so.
>>511180097
They have the initiative though. I think they push in Dontesk then settle for peace without all of Zaporizhzhia or Kherson.
Maybe the push for Zaporizhzhia but no way in hell are they going to try and cross the river then be able to hold it.

>>511180182
Two more weeks

>>511180308
>Russia has the resources to legitimately prolong this indefinitely, but it would be extremely draining to do so.
It's not going to happen. China could have done the same thing in Korea but it's not worth it.

>>511180393
China in the 50s and current day Russia are completely different ffs.

>>511180508
Not really in this context. Russia can keep throwing bodies into Ukraine. China could keep throwing bodies into Korea. Neither one is worth the meager gains.

Russia will be happy with basically what they occupy now and call it a victory. Ukraine will also get to call it a victory by maintaining their independence if not territorial integrity.

russia is going to take everything east of the dnieper
they will do this by killing everyone in the ukranian armed forces, then walk westward
once they reach the river they will seige kiev and force capitulation, odessa amd kiev will be given to them in the negotiations
i dont know what will happen to ukraine after that
hungary and poland will probably occupy west ukraine to protect their ethnic groups there
the rest in the center will be like somalia with white people

>>511180603
>Russia will be happy with basically what they occupy now
Their entire reasoning for continuing is that the 4 oblasts voted to join the russian federation, which means they think they can't stop until they take them. I don't see any way they stop without at the very least all of Donetsk.

>>511180622
>russia is going to take everything east of the dnieper
lmao
>once they reach the river they will seige kiev and force capitulation, odessa amd kiev will be given to them in the negotiations
LMAO

and then you woke up and celebrating Russia occupying most of the donbass at the end of the war

>>511180698
Oh they definitely want all of the donbass but they'll pay a high price capturing the final cities standing in the way, its possible they do it but it would take a few more years that they probably aren't willing to continue for

>>511180838
They could realistically be near in position to besiege the cities this year, but I doubt they can get started a siege anytime soon. It'd probably be next spring when they could even start.

>>511180923
yeah no way they get close to even kramatorsk this year. They might take pokrovsk and Myrnohrad by the end of the year, something like kostiantynivka is unlikely imo tho.

>>511180733
time is not on ukraines side, the russian army is becoming stronger and the ukrainian side weaker every day
at the beginning of the war, russia was producing dozens of gerans. now its hundreds. soon it will be thousands.
barring direct NATO intervention ukraines army is guaranteed to be destroyed.
if ukraine surrenders today russia might settle for half of east of dneiper, but they wont, they cant, so russia will take it all

The only way for it to end, territory aside is for Russia to official recognize Ukraine as a state.

>>511181070
I think will make significant progress before the end of the year and before the winter.

>>511181286
oh hell no, thats a ridiculous amount of urban areas, its just not possible

>>511181439
I don't think any of the forces surrounding Pokrovsk will take part in any other operations this year besides it, the rest of that advance is from forces already in those areas. They're pretty close to Lyman again and they're pushing out of Toresk finally.

>>511180622
>>511181122
Imagine believing this

The value of a man means nothing in Russia or any of those post Soviet shit holes. Women live to be 80 and men live to be 60, look it up. It’s disgusting.

This is feminism finally realized, and Russian men need to go their own way, it’s the only way this conflict ends in favor of democracy and equal rights.

>>511181623
they're like trannies, they live in their own delusions

>>511180393
>China could have done the same thing in Korea
They tried, but after the initial meat wave they were basically stalled trying to push south and eventually had to accept the American terms (basically, status quo).

>>511181805
Yeah same thing is going to happen with Russia at some point.

>>511181860
problem is Russia isn't stalled yet

>>511181928
They're definitely stalled.

>>511180622
>>511181122
this is your brain on hearts of iron 4

>>511181805
Chinese military technology was more advanced relative to what Russia has compared to Ukraine today.

Before we know it, Ukraine will be deploying cyborg super soldiers spliced from the baddest Jihadis Israel captured.

>>511181994
they're progressing, just boringly slow lol. the russians clearly don't care about casualties

>>511180603
>Russia can keep throwing bodies into Ukraine.
As always, the side using meatgrinder tactics is misidentified. Russia has been cautious with its people throughout the war due to their fears of NATO involvement. Zelensky is the one fighting to the last Ukrainian. This isn't Korea.

I think total collapse of Ukraine is the only possible outcome now. Everyone points at how slow the border moves, but it's the body count that matters. The West is not committing people to the theater, that is certain, and without soldiers Ukraine cannot fight. Ukraine is going the path of Hemingway; dying slowly, then all at once.

>>511182200
>Russia has been cautious with its people

>>511179916 (OP)
>>511180308
>tfw you have been hearing the same names of those cities for years

Truly nothing ever happens.

>>511179916 (OP)
The Ukraine is nearly out of manpower. The whole point of the SMO was to annihilate the Ukrainian army in the open so they couldn't spread out into cities where they'd cause massive casualties to Russians. In a few months the manpower dry up completely and the Russians will take whatever they want because there'll be nothing to stop them.

>>511182296
>The Ukraine is nearly out of manpower.

This is the same cope as "Russia is running out of ammo".

>>511182281
The Russians figured they could outlast the attention span of western media and they were right lol

>>511182419
ukraine had a population of like 40 million and neither side has probably lost more than 250k troops total so this could go on indefinitely

>>511182278
>1 million casualties in 3 years but that's as high as we're willing to admi-
>1 million casualties, not great, not terrible

>>511182419
Except this is true and not western propaganda. We have satellite photos of Russian and Ukrainian military cemeteries from the conflict. The Russian ones had a big boom in 22 then slowed. Ukrainian cemeteries have exploded year after year with the newest one having 100,000 plots - and that's just what the regime admits.
>>511182681
The Russians had a bigger population and more production capacity and the strategic initiative. The majority of Ukrainians don't want to fight and they won't. As the Ukrainian manpower shortages begin to show on the battlefield their attempts to increase drafting has been met with more domestic resistance. They are protested Zelensky at this very moment, and Russia is launching multiple offensives across the entire front which it has never done before.

This war could never have gone on indefinitely and the Ukrainians could never have won it. The Russians can go on indefinitely and they learned from their mistakes in 2022. They not only have already won, but they're winning in the most efficient and effective manner possible.

Believing anything to the contrary is brainlet copium.

>>511179916 (OP)
Pokrovsk attack has already begun.

>>511181286
Realistic. This is an extremely rare post predicting Russian gains that is realistically measured rather than retarded "2 more weeks to kiev" bs.

>>511180838
the price won't be that high. notice there's no major urban centres north or west of pokrovsk until you get to pavlograd. they'll encircle slavyansk and kramatorsk and ukraine won't be able to defend them because they have no soldiers left. donbass fully cleared by end of summer '26 at the latest. after that ukraine will lose hundreds of square kilometres a day

>>511182681
ukraine has no recruits, just conscripts, they have massive defection problem, they cant rotate their troops, some have been on the front for YEARS. anon, do you actually read battle reports from ukraine frontline sources? or are you just hear to stir the pot

>>511183905
I might be over estimating like the other anon said, but I do think they'll make progress before the winter because they're gaining momentum across a few fronts.
It's hard to believe some people really don't have a side but I truly don't lol. I just enjoy studying war and geopolitics so I'm interested.

>>511181623
memeflag tranny

>>511181994
russia gains more ground every day. how is that stalled?

>>511182419
m8 they have to abduct men off the streets

>>511181286
There is no way they take Kostiantynivka before the end of the year. It took them, what, a year and a half to take Toretsk? And that's a smaller city, that they aren't even confirmed to be fully in control of yet.

>>511184053
world's most honest american. how do you discuss this with your trannybrained countrymen?

>>511184352
Pokrovsk has a month, 2 tops. After that, konstantinovka is practically operationally encircled already and the high ground at chasov yar is already under russian control

>>511180182
According to NATO analysts Russia should collapse in approximately fourteen days

>>511184490
I try to here. I get called a vatnik (still really don't know what that even means) and a NAFO shill.

>>511184605
lol, no. You clearly haven't been paying attention to this war if you think Russia can take a large and extremely fortified urban area like Pokrovsk in two months. Kostiantynivka is even bigger, and is nowhere close to being encircled.

>>511180733
Go back and fight then Ukrainian army is running out of men

I noticed this today, were there really protests in all these cities? were they big or just irrelevant little rallies?

>>511179916 (OP)
Geography is destiny. You've got four major rivers breaking up the area that's currently the most conflicted:
The Dnipier runs from the northern border with Belarus down to the Black Sea at Kherson (red)
The Samara feeds into the Dnipier at Dnipro and runs all the way to just West of Kramatorsk (green)
The Donets (blue) cuts south from the Russian border east of Kharkiv
The Oskill (black) cuts south from the border and feeds into the Donets just east of Izium

They've already got a decent amount of the landmass bordered by these rivers, so I'd say expect to see Russia make one last big push this year to try and rush up passed Pavlohrad and take everything between the Dnipier and the Samara and then basically call it quits, settling for the territory in pink in negotiations.

>>511185034
completely small and irrlevant

>>511184053
>It's hard to believe some people really don't have a side but I truly don't lol.
For all the alleged free thinkers here, almost everyone is severely brain rotted by propaganda. It's rare to find someone like yourself who doesn't have a clear emotional investment.
With regard to the situation I have the exact same feeling. I'm expecting pokrovsk to fall in the foreseeable future since it's going to be enveloped from 3 sides.
This is a disaster waiting to happen for the Ukrainians because time and time again they fail to do timely evacuations from forming pockets. The one thing in their favour now is that since they've moved to a corps level army structure they can conduct quite formidable multi-brigade scale breakout operations when they inevitably wait too long and have to fight their way out.

>>511179916 (OP)
they just have to keep fighting eventually ukraine will run out of people, simple as.
look at ww1, front barely moved and then it all collapsed overnight.

>>511185347
is that actually from today?
>>511185246
that's why I just can't see them going into Kherson. Not only would it be an insane fight to take it again but there's no way they could hold it before a settlement, Ukraine would clearly just keep attacking and retake it then settle.

>>511185350
>emotional investment.
in foreign wars is retarded all I really care about is stopping wasting money and resources in Ukraine. Ukies want to keep fighting and dieing? Go ahead I don't care I just don't se the benefit to us dumping money into a black hole.

>>511179916 (OP)
>so how does this end?

When Russia runs low on vehicles or Ukraine runs out of men. Post war there will be no normalization of relations between Russia and EU, America will forbid that.

>>511179916 (OP)
Realistically they won't stop until 4 oblasts fully controlled, maybe they will stop at the river and call it the new border. Then it depends how willing is nato without US wanting to jump in, plus how many until the last hohol and whether the green gnome is hanged by the remaining piggers. Our government will pussy out and won't claim sub-Carpathian territories, the poles and romanians might do theirs. Oinkraine is fucked, whatever happens.

>>511182200
>Russia has been cautious with its people throughout the war due to their fears of NATO involvement.
Retard

>>511180030
Biden armed Ukraine “like never before” and this still didn’t happen.

>>511185630
right. as long as the US isn't involved I don't really care. I don't even care if Europeans buy our weapons to send to Ukraine. we should be stopping it from escalating but if Ukraine AND Russia don't want to stop wtf are we supposed to do
>>511185350
Without Pokrovsk the Russians can't link up their 'south donetsk forces', for a lack of a better term, with their 'north donetsk forces' on the way to the two big donetsk cities. That's what I personally think is the Russian endgame. There's no way they go for Kherson and I could be wrong but I don't think they've ever even tried to go up towards Zaporizhzhia. They already have all of Luhansk and anything else outside of the oblasts would be traded for a settlement.
They already have the right flank set, and are advancing up the middle, but they need to secure the left before the have the cities encircled and can squeeze the cauldron towards the border of donetsk.

>>511185246
>Good luck tracking me, I am behind 4 rivers

>>511179916 (OP)
alright ill try my best, but ill outright say ukraine will have less land than currently as the outcome, theres no scenario theyll ever win or get large chunks of land again like the early russian retreats cause the contact lines are really stable right now with both sides prepared fully.
unless of course russia collapses internally but chances for that is near zero.

i think the war either ends soon as russian volunteers dry up, because theyve been dependant on that rather than conscripting like ukraine, but on the other hand i can see them not shying away from doing the same as ukraine eventually if nessecary, if that happens, the war will continue for years until ukraine completely capitulates.
production wise both sides wont have any issues cause russia has a really good military manufacturing base and for ukraine the EU is ramping up production to keep backing them despite of an US exit.
all it depends is how hard russia will want to suffer the fight, theyll get out on top either way.

If Russia suffers an economic collapse, its government will double down. Militia groups will grow slowly but be stunted and rendered incapable by federal surveillance and security. Riots will be violently suppressed. Protests will be violently suppressed. Censorship will tighten again and again and again. If Russian people try to storm the Kremlin, carefully vetted armed men will shoot them down. Russian intelligence will psyop the people of Russia to get acquainted with depressed economic conditions as quickly as possible. They could try to keep people off the streets by forcing Soviet-like full employment policies. Russian mass media will slowly become less Western, less consumerist, more patriotic, more militaristic, more psyopped, more Russian.

If military equipment supply becomes scarce, they will import it from wherever they can. If they can't import it, they'll be perfectly willing to sacrifice some more stability to force more production. If they run out of skilled manpower, they'll rely on unskilled manpower. Maybe they'll even train them for longer. If it takes long enough, they could even draft some women. They will slowly grind into Donbass. They will grind even slower into Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. They will try to occupy Ukraine's northeastern border. They will continue to bomb Ukraine's western oblasts so that NATO can't afford to set foot there. They will reopen the northern front as soon as they can afford to take just a few kilometers. They will just push and double down, empty every warehouse, draft every man, use every social engineering trick in the book, even if it takes 10 years, until NATO gives up and they can occupy all of Ukraine and establish a triune Russian state incorporating Belarus.

>>511179916 (OP)
It ultimately ends with Russia taking all of western europe

>>511186759
this is so silly
>RUSSIA WANTS TO CONQUER ALL OF EUROPE
>haha always they are stinky and can't even take half of Ukraine

>>511179916 (OP)
here is the map that was sent back in time to us from the year 2030

>>511186926
they haven't even tried to re-entry the territory they withdrew from near kiev, and I doubt they ever do.

>>511186690
We've been hearing these boomer fantasies about Russia collapsing on its own for years now.

>>511186549
>US isn't involved
All long range attacks into Russia are guided by a new base in Germany

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-command-germany-assist-ukraine-is-up-running-says-rutte-2024-12-18/

>>511180030
>It's going to end when Russia gets to the edge of collapse.
THE RUBLE IS NOW RUBBLE - Sleepy Joe, 2022
Collapsing my dick in your mother right now, mutt.

>>511186648
>russian volunteers
Dude... Russia pays good money...

>>511187238
pretty sure that specifically is for distributing the shit the euros are buying from us, but we still support their shit regardless. wish we didn't but under Biden they were doing much more direct missile attacks, now it's seemingly mostly drones.

>>511187022
Ukrainians are rioting in the streets of kiev right now. Russia doesn't need to take those lands, they will be given.

>>511185350
I will admit that in the first 2 to 3 weeks of the war I was 100% pro Ukrainian cuz I pictured a brutal short offensive. Grozny all over the place, endless bombings of civilian infrastructure like electricity and water to collapse the system.

But as the months passed realized that Ukraine could not win, and that Russia for whatever reason was not going to cause mass civilian casualties.

>>511187416
I genuinely don't know about Ukrainian internal political figures. If Zelensky were to step down, who would even take over? Someone more or less hawkish?

>>511187367
Nope you can find articles where they say.it will guide the missile defense for the EU

State of the art AI shit

>>511180030
That'll only create another stalled war, just like the Koreas.

>>511184829
My zigga, they are *inside* Pokrovsk.

>>511187472
That completely depends on the EU and US. Trump yelled at that faggot and now he wears a suit.

>>511187305
yes im including those too, if they can keep doing that theyll do fine, but if not then they might settle for less cause mobilising society unwillingly will harm the economy way more than now

>>511187593
is there any 'next in line' politician? or are you saying it'd just be whatever NATO says.
>>511187505
missile defense doesn't mean offensive ukrainian attacks though

>>511187593
What is the mood of Ukrainians?

>>511187683
Ok retard
>just because they can guide missiles dont mean they can guide missiles

>>511187683
>it'd just be whatever NATO says

>>511187875
ah got it
>>511187864
offensive and defense missiles are different ffs

>>511184829
Russia nearly has fire control over the remaining artery into Pokrovsk and there is a recent video of a Russian DRG unit causing chaos deep in the city. Not calling 2 weeks but it would not be surprising if it Pokrovsk falls in that time frame.

>>511180030
anon... ukraine is literally about to collapse lol

>>511187920
>offensive and defense missiles are different ffs
Are you a massive faggot or a retard?

>>511187772
The patriots are angry and scared, the normal people are relieved by what Trump does.

To the last ukranian, thats how it will end - it was openly communicated form the start and no other outcome was ever realistically possible.

That last ukranian will then be landlocked and useless, but will cope by boasting to have killed 6 gorillion russians while completely ignoring the outcome of the war - just like the fins.

And soon ukraine will be forgotten and memoryholed just like the coof and return to its previous state of being a corrupt brothel masquerading as a country.

anyone who disagrees is either a retarded nigger or argues in bad faith, maybe even both.

>>511188105
that's based retard to you

>>511186630
lel

Every missile NATO has is hooked into NATO WIFI (nickname). They never gave Ukraine the codes. Thats why they pretend they are not letting Zelensky do long range attacks. Its not up to him faggot

>>511188176
as was foretold

>>511188498
They need 6 to mobilize one. Ain't happening.

>>511185350
Yeah it’s really strange, I don’t know why people have this intense emotional attachment to Ukraine. I hypothesized for a while that maybe /k/ lost some foreign volunteer battle buddies in the meat grinder and these folks I keep seeing everywhere were just heartbroken lads.

>>511184829
you clearly haven't been paying attention if you think the ukrainian army of today is the same one that defended places like mariupol, severodonetsk, lysichansk, bakhmut, or even avdeevka. the ukrainians spent the last of their good troops to rot in potato fields outside the hive city of sudzha. the ukrainian army is a slave army of demoralised kidnapping victims who surrender or flee at the first opportunity. they are incapable of meaningful offensive action, and on the defense can only stand and die in place for fear of the blocking detachments

>>511190152
people got psyopped by military intel into thinking ukraine was the biggest deal ever for a while. Boomers were flying ukrainian flags and painting hearts with yellow and blue bands (which now have sad little cracks painted on them- BAWWW) and as you drive into halifax on the main highway there's all sorts of ukrainian shit painted on the boulders to the side (next to a bunch of cringe covid memes). I'm constantly disappointed in how easily canadians are brainwashed by the cbc, it makes them seem like actual cattle

>>511185567
>Ukraine would clearly just keep attacking and retake it then settle.
Ukraine can’t attack for shit right now. They’re so low on manpower that they simply cannot afford any major offensives.

>>511179916 (OP)

>>511180097
I think Russia will go for an unconditional surrender, take whatever they want and turn the rest into a satellite buffer state.

>>511191425
Putin made it clear the Zelensky regime will be removed from power. He was like just like we got rid of Hitlers cronies.

My estimate is that Pokrovsk is done by the end of September. Then they will also be working on Dobropillya and Konstyantinivka. And then by January they will have started on Kramatorsk and Lyman will already be in play.

>>511184829
What is Selydove
What is Krasnagorivka
What is Kurakhove

>>511186259
Well the did hunker down behind fortified lines letting Ukraine spend their forces assaulting them through minefields and artillery fire for two years all the while rotating troops in and out of the theater to give as many troops as possible combat experience. Thats a bit more cautious than spending your best troops assaulting a fortified enemy and never really make it past their first line of defense before being pushed back.

>>511180097
There may be a dynamic where the longer it goes on the more that Russia *has* to ask to justify the war and also they have to ask more because they *can*. They can't throw away a dub that big, either domestically or in terms of foreign perception.

>>511186549
The banana of doom will be swallowed whole

>>511179916 (OP)
I think Russia will be able to liberate Kramatorsk before a cease-fire

>>511179916 (OP)
It will end with an uneasy peace treaty, that satisfies nobody, and will re erupt in 5 to 10 years.
Unless something unpredictable happens, like a mutiny or Monke kicking the bucket. So far neither belligerent has the means to break the stalemate.

>the stalemate

>>511180097
Russia isn't getting half of the redline territory, they already have most of it

>>511195396
Russia took 500sq km of heavily fortified territory in june. On track for more in July.

>>511179916 (OP)
russian brains are mongoloid

>>511181643
Humans are the most expensive part of the military, and modern warfare, logistically, requires 10 or more men for each soldier. Ukraine, thanks to a wide net of allies, has it covered. Russia is fighting alone. 500k men at the fron means 5million of working populace supporting them directly.

Russia is large, but in terms of manpower both parties are matched, an Russia cant, realistically, scale up.

>>511195524
They should be taking that per day at third their losses.

>>511180182
>inches
On the map. In reality, they are moving in kilometers

>>511183011
you have been banned from /k/

>>511195735
You are dumb
4:1 in a pinch
5:1 optimum

Plus chicks can do most support roles like cooks and truck drivers

>>511184829
They've done that multiple times more or less.
You're the one who hasn't been paying attention. There's the part where they surround the city (takes months when it's a large logistical centerpiece) and then there's the part where the urban battles begin in the aftermath once supply is constricted that usually takes far less time than the encirclement does but yeah there's been exceptions to this.
Like avdivka for instance did not take long to fall at all once Russians actually broke into the city post pipeline operation.
Pokrovsk is at the tail end of it's encirclement phase practically now maybe 1 month or a little longer left would not be especially surprising the ukies will be forced into a hasty retreat at some point soon not unlike avdivka or kursk.

>>511180603
>Uryna
>Indenpendence
Lol
Lmao even

>>511180182
Dude their economy has been “a house of cards ready to collapse” since the first sanctions and if anything they’ve shown resilience.
No one (well most citizens) wants WW3 and the pro-Ukrainian fervour has dropped considerably. The EU can’t keep the war going indefinitely and the USA certainly has a limited appetite for it although if Trump sells weapons to NATO/EU than he and the military-industrial complex will have incentive to keep it going. This war of attrition hasn’t gone the way everyone said it would go.
Without foreign boots on the ground Ukraine cannot win purely because of its population. The meat grinder requires meat and Russia has Ukraine beat in this respect. They are getting more and more N. Koreans and I’m afraid there are very few trannies willing to go to fight for Ukraine anymore. It’s hard to imagine a scenario (not including foreign intervention) where Ukraine wins, especially under the unrealistic scenario of not surrendering until they get all territory including Crimea back.

>>511195735
>Russia cant, realistically, scale up.
Do they need to? This is still an SMO. They haven't even declared war.