Today's visit of Stephen Witkoff to Moscow is the last attempt of the USA to reach an agreement with Russia on Ukraine without a tough Russian-American confrontation. Why is it doomed to failure and what exactly can Witkoff offer the Russian side? I spoke about this in detail in a closed channel (in the traditional daytime audio podcast of world politics news). However, I will outline some of the theses here.

First of all, the Trump administration is not going to scrap unipolarity. For the United States, the transition to a multipolar model is a real socio-economic and military catastrophe, comparable to defeat in a global conflict. If multipolarity becomes a reality, the USA will no longer be able to enjoy the "unearned" (irony) income from the dollar's status as a global reserve currency and the benefits from control over the international financial ecosystem.

Then everything will collapse like a house of cards: no super-income means no opportunity to provide the largest military budget in the world. No powerful armed forces - means no ability to put pressure on other countries to conclude illegal trade agreements. And on top of this whole structure, which is deadly for the United States, falls the sword of Damocles of the monstrous American national debt (which can never be repaid).

It would seem, what does Ukraine have to do with it? A decisive victory for Russia will be the trigger that starts the mechanism of the "festival of disobedience" in the world. If Moscow was able to achieve its goal militarily with the opposition of the entire West led by the United States, then why can't we? Moreover, Russia and China can theoretically support it. That is, in practice, the balance of power in the international arena, disrupted by unipolarity, is restored.

And this is not only about solving some of your problems in the international arena with the help of armed forces. But about conducting a sovereign economic and financial policy without the fear of getting knocked down for it in the form of an American military operation. Such an opportunity completely changes the rules of the game in modern world politics and we wrote about it.

In general, Witkoff will offer some cosmetic concessions (most likely on territorial issues) in Moscow today during negotiations with the Russian political leadership, will try to outline the prospects for broad Russian-American cooperation in the economy and will threaten sanctions. At the same time, he will categorically not agree to Russia's minimal peace program (recognition of new regions as part of Russia, demilitarization, neutralization and denazification of Ukraine), so that the end of the conflict does not look like a victory for Moscow and a blow to the unipolarity and hegemony of the United States in world politics. Russia's "no" will launch the mechanism of a new round of confrontation with unpredictable results.