Guys I don't want to alarm you, but I think that China might collapse in a handful of years. Their economy is in a death spiral.

>>513607234 (OP)
They'll be fine, they have their pacifiers.

>>513607234 (OP)
k, keep us posted

>>513607234 (OP)
China will collapse when Xi dies. He is the only thing keeping that country from collapsing on itself and imploding. When he goes, the CCP will bicker and fight each other as cliques form and a power struggle ensues. If you look at Chinese history, such things are inevitable when a leader like Winnie the pooh dies.

>>513607234 (OP)
omg based
now I can finally get a gf!!!!!

>>513607234 (OP)
the CCP will collapse, and soon-ish, because it can't modernize
Xi may be the last secretary
China will be fine, there will be no post-collapse chaos and looting because most assets are already owned by someone

>>513607372
It's obviously not the same person

Irony aside China has a billion citizens and an industrial economy and is really no closer to being a superpower than they were in 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, or 2010.
Nothing they have achieved really counts against what's holding them back.

1. No primary access to oil.
They can't contest any of the 5 straits between China and the middle east, to secure oil they need to control ALL of the five straits. The road across Tibet, through Pakistan and Iran was a COPE, the port in Myanmar was more realistic but that's still 2 straits and the Yunnan basin.
2. Doesn't hold Yunnan/east Tibet
Despite being inside mainland China, the Chinese dont actually control the region, and historically never have. It's lawless jungle, desolate moonscape, himalchayan mountains, the Uruzgan of the east. There's no way the Chinese are getting an oil supply line through there.
3. Can't secure northern border
Remember why they built the great wall? the whole Khan'd thing? Manchuria? The Russian invasion of China, the Gobi campaign. Well China has this problem that they can't really protect Sichuan province from a northern invasion.
4. Can't secure eastern seaboard
So most of the billion Chinese live in this bizarrely overpopulated eastern strip which any frigate could shell, no food is produced or stored there, there is nowhere to hide. Now with guided missiles China has a 200Km standoff on the surface and a 500Km standoff air capacity, but has the same issue the soviets did in the cold war with US trident subs...the same subs. China has has taken 50 years longer to reach a cold war defeat.
5. At risk of genocide in SEA
Everyone in SEA hates China and would massacre the Chinese to the man, if they were able. on the one hand this means a Chinese fleet moving south would cause chaos. But the downside is that an American fleet moving north might incite a rolling genocide against Han Chinese living in SEA, which would lock all the SEA states into a coalition against China.

>>513607234 (OP)
copium?

>>513610324
the CCP is China's greatest liability at the moment, followed closely by the population crisis that the CCP created
everything else is fluff

>>513610556
No China's economy is heavily industrialized but their primary production is still incredibly unbalanced and famine in China is a very real possibility. Covid sort of gave them a nudge, reminded them how fragile their country was, there are probably 50 different covids all lined up for China.

Chinese strategic oil reserves are huge, but that's more a sign of weakness. China would run out of jet fuel before the US ran out of air frames. If both sites were on red alert, the US would win eventually by default because the Chinese would just run out of fuel.

Chinese missile defense has come a long way, but hasn't even reached half of what the soviets had in the cold war. The US is a shadow of it's former self as well in that regard but most of the technological growth has been in the US for the last...80 years.
Given that, its fairly conceivable that the US may actually have D1 capacity to simply delete China with nuclear missiles, the US hit Iran the other month just to prove a point. The US could get subs off the Chinese eastern seaboard, does have hypersonic missiles, still has strategic stealth bombers, still has both ICBM and counter-ICBM. Isreal is really just the testing ground for US missile defense.

China isn't going to have a popular revolution any time soon, and in fact if they did china would be more likely to attack than they currently are under bloated CCP leadership

>>513607234 (OP)
Why is it in a death spiral?

>>513607234 (OP)
China collapses every day and millions of chinese die per year for random reasons, but they are bug people and bugs just rebuild. Then die. Then rebuild. Chinese government will tell everything is okay until the sun explodes though.

>>513609852
I know, that's Jackie Chan, big fan

>>513610934
1 child policy really fucked them up
pay as you go social security
deflation
housing market bubble popped
Belt&Road riots in all of Africa
Tariffs from their number 1 trade partner, US
high youth unemployment
I doubt they will collapse from it, but they are having nasty economic recession

>>513610324

>1. No primary access to oil.

China is one of the world's largest oil producers you absolute mong

>>513610871
I don't rate a sino-american war very high on my list of things that might happen
>China isn't going to have a popular revolution
the USSR didn't have one either, the system worked until one day it didn't work anymore

>>513607234 (OP)
Xi got purged. They said he had a stroke, again. Now tanks are out in the streets again.

>>513610324
This whole pasta is a hilarious departure from reality but this one really sent my sides into orbit.
>they can't really protect Sichuan province from a northern invasion
Yeah I can totally see the barbarians from *checks map* Gansu province, China invading Sichuan from the north.