Juratus
11/1/2025, 5:00:18 AM
No.33882816
>>33882782
In statistical modeling, percentage measures frequency; predictability measures reliability of outcome. They are linked but not identical.
A low-percentage behavior can still be highly predictive if its impact or visibility skews incentives. For example, only a small fraction of financial trades cause crashes, yet every trader adjusts behavior around that risk. Likewise, even if a minority of women act destructively, the perceived probability alters how men plan, invest, and trust.
Predictability is shaped by consequence, not count. Ten percent behaving destructively but concentrated in key relational or social nodes like law, education, dating platforms, changes systemic trust more than fifty percent behaving harmlessly in isolation. Perception is reality after-all.
So the percentage quantifies the event; predictability quantifies its influence. They correlate but do not rank equally.
In statistical modeling, percentage measures frequency; predictability measures reliability of outcome. They are linked but not identical.
A low-percentage behavior can still be highly predictive if its impact or visibility skews incentives. For example, only a small fraction of financial trades cause crashes, yet every trader adjusts behavior around that risk. Likewise, even if a minority of women act destructively, the perceived probability alters how men plan, invest, and trust.
Predictability is shaped by consequence, not count. Ten percent behaving destructively but concentrated in key relational or social nodes like law, education, dating platforms, changes systemic trust more than fifty percent behaving harmlessly in isolation. Perception is reality after-all.
So the percentage quantifies the event; predictability quantifies its influence. They correlate but do not rank equally.