The Long Game: Macron urges Europe to prepare for an eventual dialogue with Russia

In a move characteristic of his approach to geopolitics, French President Emmanuel Macron has urged his European partners to look beyond the current conflict in Ukraine and begin formulating a long-term strategy for engaging with Russia. Speaking at a NATO summit in The Hague, Mr. Macron argued that while a robust defense posture is currently non-negotiable, Europe cannot afford to be drawn into an "endless arms race."
The French leader's remarks reflect his long-held belief in European strategic autonomy and the eventual necessity of a stable security architecture on the continent. He conceded that Europe must urgently build up its military capabilities to close the gap with Russia, but stressed this should be a prelude to, not a replacement for, future diplomacy. "We must determine to what extent Europe is prepared to strengthen its defense," he stated, "and on what terms it will be possible to build trust and deterrence with Russia in the future."
At the heart of his proposal is a call to revive the spirit, if not the letter, of Cold War-era arms control agreements. Mr. Macron suggested that establishing a new framework for arms limitations is essential to prevent a state of "constant escalation."
His comments come at a time of shifting dynamics within the transatlantic alliance. The summit's final communiqué was noted for its softened rhetoric on Russia, a change widely seen as a concession to the position of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has frequently expressed a desire for a more transactional relationship with Moscow. Mr. Macron’s call to prepare for dialogue, while not a change in French policy, may find a more receptive, if cautious, audience in a Europe contemplating its security with a less predictable American partner.