>According to NATO, Russia will continue its slow advance in the Sumy and Zaporozhye regions. No breakthroughs are expected on the front due to a lack of reserves.

>Weapons production in Russia remains powerful: ~130 tanks/month, ~3 million shells/year (the US plans 1 million/year by 2026).

>Russia is capable of financing the war until 2027. Prospects for a diplomatic solution are weak, as NATO doubts Russia's readiness to negotiate.

>A NATO spokesman denied claims that Russia plans to invade the Alliance, noting that Putin takes Article 5 seriously.

>Uncertainty over support for Ukraine remains: the future of US aid after Biden's packages are exhausted is unclear.