The college demographic cliff refers to the anticipated, sustained decline in the number of traditional-age high school graduates beginning around 2025, driven by declining birth rates that started in 2007. This demographic shift is expected to significantly reduce college enrollment, potentially leading to the closure of institutions and forcing others to cut programs or adapt their strategies. The impact will vary geographically, with declines expected in some regions and growth in others.
Causes:
Declining Birth Rates:
Lower birth rates since the 2007 recession are the primary cause, leading to fewer young people entering the traditional college-age demographic.
Long-Term Trend:
Demographers forecast this decline will continue, with the number of new high school graduates projected to fall by about 13% by 2041.
Consequences for Higher Education:
Enrollment Declines:
Colleges will face fewer applicants from the traditional high school population.
Institutional Closures and Program Cuts:
The enrollment crunch could force some institutions to close or eliminate degree programs.
Economic Impact:
The closure of colleges can have a negative economic impact on communities, with losses in jobs and economic activity.