>The Russian Academy of Sciences noted the lack of economic growth for almost two years

>The growth of the Russian economy de facto stopped at the beginning of 2024, and since then, for about 20 months, the national GDP has remained at approximately the same level.

>According to the estimates of the Institute of Scientific Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as of September 2025, the monthly physical volume of GDP of the Russian Federation was at the same level as in May 2024, and only slightly exceeded the levels of January 2024. Compared to January 2025, the Russian economy shrank by 0.2%. In Russian industry “there is a gradual increase in crisis phenomena,” the institute’s experts state: in 17 out of 24 industries monitored by Rosstat, production volumes decreased over the 9 months of this year. Even the main factor in the growth of industry during the war years, the military-industrial complex, failed: production indices in industries producing products for its needs fell sharply in September.

>So far, only the second pillar of growth in recent years has held up: household consumption. It also slows down, but is still growing faster than the rest of the economy, but this factor is also unstable, IPP experts fear: continued growth in consumption depends on the situation on the labor market, and wage growth is slowing down. When the rush to buy cars before the increase in the recycling fee and the increased demand for other goods before the VAT increase ends, consumption may slow down.

>According to the Institute of Economic Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the fourth quarter the annual rate of economic growth in the country will drop to zero.

>The Russian government initially forecast 2.3% economic growth this year. However, in the fall it lowered the estimate first to 1.2%, and then to 1%.