https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1944100385268150526

It has been said that currently, there are only two things that can persuade Putin to start real negotiations and stop the war:
1. If success is not certain;
2. If the price of success is too high.

Currently:

1. Russia is convinced that Ukraine can be defeated, and it will take a little more pressure for us to crumble.
2. The price Russia is currently paying is acceptable to Putin.
3. Russia feels its impunity.
4. Putin has support.

For as long as Putin is convinced he can win, he will not back down.

In reality, this is a simplified view of the situation.
The key question is whether Putin makes the decisions about continuing or stopping the war by himself?

In my opinion, he doesn't make this decision himself.

The participation of North Korea, Laos in the war, and China's recent statements point that Putin is not currently a fully independent player.

Perspectives of the war's development need to be seen through the triangle of USA-EU-China relations.
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