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Anonymous ID: 2M0hUUhs/pol/507348825#507351618
6/14/2025, 5:52:12 PM
>>507351031

A great number of experts already started assessing and evaluating possible outcomes of Israel's military operation against Iran: geopolitical, economic outcomes as well as its effect on the war in Ukraine.

I have seen opinions that Iran might destroy the production of Shahed drones at some point, and that since Iran will launch Shahed drones on Israel now, they will not supply their engines to Russia - which will be good for Ukraine.

This is a possible "side effect".

Russia puts together drones using Iranian engines in Alabuga, Tatarstan. It's likely that this logistical chain will be disrupted. If that will indeed happen, we will soon notice that - all that Russia produces is launched at Ukraine straight away.

However, the most recent Shaheds and their engines (the ones launched at Ukraine) have been produced in China, so I don't think there will be a great deficit of drones for Russia. Consequently, my assessment is more reserved and pessimistic regarding benefits for Ukraine.

The second issue I've seen discussed is whether Russia will help its military ally Iran, and if it does, to what scale will it help? (the strategic cooperation agreement that Russia and Iran signed recently does not bind Russia to provide military assistance in case Iran is attacked - and vice versa).

I don't think Russia's military assistance to Iran is likely. Russia did not interfere with recent events in Syria - all of its resources are focused on Ukraine. They won't be able to provide much.

There will probably be symbolic statements and gestures - maybe some ballistic missiles and air defense systems, but nothing significant.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1933436988020977692

https://litter.catbox.moe/w46urrhynyxjzi9j.mp4