I've heard a lot of heated opinions about the relative cost of nuclear vs solar, and those opinions been all over the place. I tried making my own calculation based on Chinese costs (they have the lowest costs). Do you think they are reasonable?

I compared a nuclear power plant in a coastal Chinese province with utility-scale solar power sent from Inner Mongolia. These calculations are very simplistic, however they should give a rough indication. Only initial costs are considered, not operating costs, however the initial costs are the dominant cost for both nuclear and solar power.

To me it seems to explain why China is full speed ahead on both nuclear and solar. Nuclear might be slightly cheaper, however solar is easier to ramp up and deploy at scale. Solar also has the potential for significant further cost reductions.

Nuclear capacity cost is based on 3180MW thermal capacity and 1080MW net electrical capacity of HPR1000 at $2.8B per reactor. The capacity cost of a HPR1000 could conceivably be less in a thermal power application if it is decided to not include a turbine, generator, etc.
Nuclear capacity factor of 90% is based on the design target of HPR1000.
Capacity cost of solar (assume 17% decrease since 2022): https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202401/08/WS659bec21a3105f21a507b285.html
Assuming 12h of storage at 0.065$/Wh for solar and wind. Cost from: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/03/24/chinas-huadian-announces-winners-in-6-gwh-bess-tender-with-average-bid-at-65-kwh/
Assuming 1500km of UHVDC transmission lines at 0.00033$/(Wkm) for solar. Cost from: https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/chinas-state-grid-starts-construction-800-kv-8-gw-transmission-line.html
I have not made any assumption about the cost of a steam-based heat transmission system or the energy losses within it.