>>60627366
Because prices paid are picking up in the regional Fed PMI indices

Friendly reminder that rates will not be lowered until the effect of tariffs on prices is set in stone.
There's a very tight correlation between PCE and the 6-month moving average on the regional fed prices paid index, which has increased since April.
It all depends on if US businesses will suck up the tariffs and blueball their margins (deflationary) or if consumers will have to pay. (inflationary)