https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1946183468335173994

Where are we now and is there a chance to end (freeze) the war by the end of the year? For that to happen, a combination of military and political factors is needed.

What was Kremlin's bet?

◾Blocking weapon supplies to Ukraine;
◾Not letting harsher sanctions against Russia to be introduced;
◾Protracted war;
◾Playing for time through negotiations;
◾Strikes on Ukrainian cities, destroying infrastructure, terrorizing civilians;
◾Information war against Ukraine to make the West "tired" of Ukraine and the war;
◾Political interference into the internal processes of European countries, emphasizing the disagreements between them;
◾Increasing weapon and manpower supplies from North Korea.

What do we have today:

◾Russia was not able to block weapon supplies to Ukraine (however, Russia will try to sabotage them in any way it can);
◾The West is not "tired" of Ukraine (however, Russia will double its efforts in corruption, blackmail and information war to promote anti-Ukrainian narratives within Europe);
◾Russia has support from North Korea and its other allies (and this is a factor that can complicate the situation greatly).
>part 1