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ID: xYr29QqC/pol/507990562#508000312
6/19/2025, 7:31:58 PM
>>508000239
>The Middle East conflict and its escalation are obviously one of the key global topics right now.
Putin doesn't want to be the first one because he understands the consequences of setting a precedent. He is currently cautious of how China, Europe, the US and the Global South will react.
But if such attacks are launched by others, Russia will take that as a norm of waging a war. It will be able to justify its actions as "preventive protection from an existential catastrophe."
Which brings us to the following: settling the situation quickly, not allowing massive deaths of civilians, making it impossible to use nuclear weapons will make the use of nuclear weapons in our war much less likely in the coming years. This is a very, very important factor and a very grave danger.
Obviously, Russia hopes for other things, as well:
◾To be an intermediary between Iran and Israel to look like Russia is a global or regional player.
But it's not one and Russia doesn't have the influence necessary to do that.
Iran doesn't trust Russia. Israel probably doesn't trust it, as well. Remember Syria when Russia did nothing to help it ally. The same is happening now.
Russia is not a strong ally, partner, leader.
◾Russia is waiting for oil prices to go up. Then, it will be able to be of more interest to China by selling oil at competitive prices. It will also mean Russia will have a larger budget to continue waging the war.
>part 2
>The Middle East conflict and its escalation are obviously one of the key global topics right now.
Putin doesn't want to be the first one because he understands the consequences of setting a precedent. He is currently cautious of how China, Europe, the US and the Global South will react.
But if such attacks are launched by others, Russia will take that as a norm of waging a war. It will be able to justify its actions as "preventive protection from an existential catastrophe."
Which brings us to the following: settling the situation quickly, not allowing massive deaths of civilians, making it impossible to use nuclear weapons will make the use of nuclear weapons in our war much less likely in the coming years. This is a very, very important factor and a very grave danger.
Obviously, Russia hopes for other things, as well:
◾To be an intermediary between Iran and Israel to look like Russia is a global or regional player.
But it's not one and Russia doesn't have the influence necessary to do that.
Iran doesn't trust Russia. Israel probably doesn't trust it, as well. Remember Syria when Russia did nothing to help it ally. The same is happening now.
Russia is not a strong ally, partner, leader.
◾Russia is waiting for oil prices to go up. Then, it will be able to be of more interest to China by selling oil at competitive prices. It will also mean Russia will have a larger budget to continue waging the war.
>part 2
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