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6/19/2025, 4:02:15 PM
>>16702039
>if you GUARANTEE this outcome, you cannot select a box at random
It isn't guaranteed that you were going to be able to select a gold ball.
>>>>It doesn't matter if there might not have been going to be a gold ball to select at step 1. There WAS at step 2. You are explicitly told that there was. You do not need to account for cases where the procedure failed because YOU ARE NOT IN ONE OF THOSE CASES.
>You can insist "it happened!" but of course it matters to the probability *how* it happened
At random. It happened at random. Let's try coins. Would coins be easier?
You have a double-headed, a double-tailed, and a fair coin. You select one at random and place it face up. What is the probability that the other side is heads? It's the same fucking problem. Nothing stops you from placing a randomly selected coin face up if it has a face.
You're obsessing over
>But what if it hadn't had a face.
It does. You're told it does when it's placed face up.
>But if you select a coin a billion times, about 1/3rd won't have faces
Which does not matter. This coin in this problem has a face. The random selection resulted in a coin with a face. You rolled a six. You got a goat door. You got a box with a gold ball in it. It's a boy. You drew the ace of spades. The bread landed butter side up. A random selection had a definitive outcome. A thing definitely happened.
>if you GUARANTEE this outcome, you cannot select a box at random
It isn't guaranteed that you were going to be able to select a gold ball.
>>>>It doesn't matter if there might not have been going to be a gold ball to select at step 1. There WAS at step 2. You are explicitly told that there was. You do not need to account for cases where the procedure failed because YOU ARE NOT IN ONE OF THOSE CASES.
>You can insist "it happened!" but of course it matters to the probability *how* it happened
At random. It happened at random. Let's try coins. Would coins be easier?
You have a double-headed, a double-tailed, and a fair coin. You select one at random and place it face up. What is the probability that the other side is heads? It's the same fucking problem. Nothing stops you from placing a randomly selected coin face up if it has a face.
You're obsessing over
>But what if it hadn't had a face.
It does. You're told it does when it's placed face up.
>But if you select a coin a billion times, about 1/3rd won't have faces
Which does not matter. This coin in this problem has a face. The random selection resulted in a coin with a face. You rolled a six. You got a goat door. You got a box with a gold ball in it. It's a boy. You drew the ace of spades. The bread landed butter side up. A random selection had a definitive outcome. A thing definitely happened.
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