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7/13/2025, 10:53:42 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/07/12/economy-slow-second-half-2025/84544138007/
The cloud of uncertainty that has hovered over the U.S. economy the first half of 2025 threatens to unleash a thunderstorm that dampens growth in the second half as President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs hit consumers and his immigration crackdown rocks the job market.
While growth was already poised to slow, Trump on July 10 increased the risks of a more pronounced pullback by announcing plans to raise the tariff rate on many Canadian imports from 25% to 35% and impose a blanket 15% to 20% duty on most other countries, up from 10%. On July 12, the tariff threats ramped up again with Trump announcing 30% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and the European Union.
In the spring, Trump announced a 90-day pause on high double-digit reciprocal tariffs for China and many other countries, easing recession fears and reversing a stock market sell-off. This week, White House officials extended the reprieve to August 1 to provide more time for negotiations.
But in recent days, Trump again has ratcheted up his trade threats, unveiling plans for a 50% tariff on imported copper, 50% on all shipments from Brazil and high fees for 14 countries that don’t reach a deal with the U.S. by August 1. Already in effect: a 50% levy on metals, 25% on cars and 30% on China, in addition to the blanket 10% charge that appears poised to rise sharply.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled nearly 280 points July 11 on Trump's latest tariff threats.
“Risks are intensifying that we may see much higher tariff rates, with consequent effects on inflation and growth,” said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.
Just 42% of CEOs of small and midsize companies plan to add to their staffs in the next year, lowest on record dating to 2003, according to a June survey by Vistage, a CEO networking group.
The cloud of uncertainty that has hovered over the U.S. economy the first half of 2025 threatens to unleash a thunderstorm that dampens growth in the second half as President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs hit consumers and his immigration crackdown rocks the job market.
While growth was already poised to slow, Trump on July 10 increased the risks of a more pronounced pullback by announcing plans to raise the tariff rate on many Canadian imports from 25% to 35% and impose a blanket 15% to 20% duty on most other countries, up from 10%. On July 12, the tariff threats ramped up again with Trump announcing 30% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and the European Union.
In the spring, Trump announced a 90-day pause on high double-digit reciprocal tariffs for China and many other countries, easing recession fears and reversing a stock market sell-off. This week, White House officials extended the reprieve to August 1 to provide more time for negotiations.
But in recent days, Trump again has ratcheted up his trade threats, unveiling plans for a 50% tariff on imported copper, 50% on all shipments from Brazil and high fees for 14 countries that don’t reach a deal with the U.S. by August 1. Already in effect: a 50% levy on metals, 25% on cars and 30% on China, in addition to the blanket 10% charge that appears poised to rise sharply.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled nearly 280 points July 11 on Trump's latest tariff threats.
“Risks are intensifying that we may see much higher tariff rates, with consequent effects on inflation and growth,” said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.
Just 42% of CEOs of small and midsize companies plan to add to their staffs in the next year, lowest on record dating to 2003, according to a June survey by Vistage, a CEO networking group.
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