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8/7/2025, 12:28:33 PM
https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1953352541254696977
>#Analyse
>While numerous renowned experts continue to emphasize that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is merely tactical in nature – resulting in the capture of a few dozen villages and small towns without significantly altering the overall strategic situation – the reality, unfortunately, shows a markedly different picture.
>Over the past two years, Russia has systematically positioned itself in several regions to either directly capture or exert such intense pressure on four former population centers in eastern Ukraine in the coming months that their supply lines collapse. As a result, the Ukrainian army might be forced to withdraw from large parts of these regions.
>A look at the current maps shows which areas are specifically affected:
>•Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (formerly approx. 110,000 inhabitants),
>•Kostiantynivka, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk (together formerly around 100,000 inhabitants),
>•Siversk and its surroundings (formerly about 15,000 inhabitants),
>•and Kupiansk, including the so-called “pocket” east of the Oskil River (formerly approx. 50,000 inhabitants).
>In all these regions, Russian troops have formed partial or complete semicircles around the cities by capturing hundreds of smaller settlements – in several cases even establishing siege positions with a 270-degree encirclement.
>The alarming fact: Based on the experiences of Bakhmut, Kurakhove, Avdiivka, and many other cities, we can predict with near certainty how the situation in these partially besieged cities will develop in the coming months …
>The real problem: Russia would only need to advance a few kilometers further in the mentioned areas to completely cut off approximately 1,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory from supplies – with the goal of occupying these areas shortly thereafter.
>#Analyse
>While numerous renowned experts continue to emphasize that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is merely tactical in nature – resulting in the capture of a few dozen villages and small towns without significantly altering the overall strategic situation – the reality, unfortunately, shows a markedly different picture.
>Over the past two years, Russia has systematically positioned itself in several regions to either directly capture or exert such intense pressure on four former population centers in eastern Ukraine in the coming months that their supply lines collapse. As a result, the Ukrainian army might be forced to withdraw from large parts of these regions.
>A look at the current maps shows which areas are specifically affected:
>•Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (formerly approx. 110,000 inhabitants),
>•Kostiantynivka, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk (together formerly around 100,000 inhabitants),
>•Siversk and its surroundings (formerly about 15,000 inhabitants),
>•and Kupiansk, including the so-called “pocket” east of the Oskil River (formerly approx. 50,000 inhabitants).
>In all these regions, Russian troops have formed partial or complete semicircles around the cities by capturing hundreds of smaller settlements – in several cases even establishing siege positions with a 270-degree encirclement.
>The alarming fact: Based on the experiences of Bakhmut, Kurakhove, Avdiivka, and many other cities, we can predict with near certainty how the situation in these partially besieged cities will develop in the coming months …
>The real problem: Russia would only need to advance a few kilometers further in the mentioned areas to completely cut off approximately 1,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory from supplies – with the goal of occupying these areas shortly thereafter.
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