You know what I've noticed? When farming CEs and stuff I almost never go anywhere near the pavillion where you port into Forked Tower. So the idea that some random new player wanders in is unlikely since they have to know where the pavillion is, know what it does and go there during the right weather at the same time that a premade 48man just happens to be there.

I've seen 48-mans that don't say a single word in shout chat about FT and yet people ITT would have me believe random new players are showing up at the perfect time and putting in a cipher and everything? More often than not they don't even know whtf to buy a cipher.