US posted a surprise surplus in June due to tariffs revenue.
Even if this is a one-off, it can and will be used to justify more tariffs.

Japanese automakers are "eating the tariffs" and selling cars to Americans at a loss, hoping that the trade issues will be resolved soon.
Even if this is temporary, it can and will be used to justify more tariffs.

Q2 2025 GDP numbers are expected to be positive due to a "pull forward" effect from importers accelerating their orders ahead of tariffs taking effect.
Even if this is a one-off, not only will this be used to justify more tariffs but it also breaks the sequence from Q1 2025 which was negative. A recession needs two consecutive negative quarters.

Two comments:
1) If you assume Trump is wrong and this is economic suicide, the illusion of temporary success is extremely dangerous as it will accelerate these policies at a time when bond markets and balance sheets are starting to crack.

2) It's possible that once again Trump was right and his policies are working, and all the experts were wrong.
I don't know. But I am 30% in cash right now.