Expedition 33 will win because it has the wholesome big chungus underdog story to follow up last year's speach.
I skipped it myself but I'm currently playing DS2 and its disappointing so far even though I like the first one. Everyone was sucking MH Wilds off when it came out but it seems like public opinion has come around on how vapid the game, so its probably safe to say its out of the running.
I'm not sure what else there is to nominate, DOOM 6 seems to have been contentious and didn't sell as well as Eternal which lost its year, nobody cares about the newest AC outside of arguing about the black dude. Was Kingdom Come 2 liked? If the new Metroid Prime doesn't get delayed it could probably make the cut. Fucking Nightreign might get nominated at this point.