The bases in Qatar and the UAE are practically empty, and, politically, it makes little sense to strike them since both governments have distanced themselves from the U.S. attack, unlike Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Some speculate Iran could stage token strikes there, but given Israel’s recent raids and Washington’s own strike, the clerical leadership may decide it can’t afford that kind of hypocrisy.

From a military standpoint, it would be more logical to hit U.S. installations in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, as well as American warships now at sea in the Gulf. Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh is a prime target: it can be reached from northern Yemen and from Iran by both missiles and drones, and it currently houses up to a hundred aircraft of various types. U.S. outposts in eastern Syria and Iraq could be hit with short-range Fateh-110 missiles, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Dammam region and Bahrain were struck with standard Scuds.

If the regular IRIA were to take command from the IRGC—whose rank-and-file seem to be losing faith in their commanders-that would make things even more interesting.