New ISW:
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2025

>*Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russian forces are unlikely to realize the Kremlin's goal of seizing the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025, which is consistent with ISW's ongoing assessment of Russia's offensive capabilities.*
>Budanov assessed that Russia’s goal of seizing all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025 is “not realistic.”
>Palisa stated that Russia intends to occupy the full extent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by September 1, 2025
>The Economist assessed that it would take Russian forces until February 2028 to seize the remainder of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts
>ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are taking very high casualties in return for disproportionately small gains in pursuit of their political and territorial ambitions

>It remains unclear on what basis the Russian military command imagined that it could seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by September 2025