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ID: 1W+892NH/pol/508446974#508452054
6/23/2025, 2:39:21 PM
>>508451916
The United States has launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. What might this mean for the world and for Ukraine?
◾The main question now is how Iran will respond.
◾The real situation in Iran is complicated. Not all who hate the Iranian regime applaud the strikes. The longer the strikes last, the stronger the anti-Israel and anti-US moods will become.
◾Will President Trump aim for a quick end of the war or will he join Israel that seems to think that there is a chance for a regime change?
◾So far, the regime in Iran is doing ok: there are no signs of officials fleeing or the army laying down their weapons. As of now, Tehran doesn't expect Israel's or US troops on the ground, and that keeps up the regime's faith that it will not collapse.
◾At the same time, it's important to note that even if the regime in Iran will weaken and collapse, there is no certainty that the new authorities in Iran will be friends of Israel.
◾Arabic countries are afraid of a regional war. They are sensitive to issues of sovereignty and are afraid that the war might grow into something of a much larger scale, eventually involving them.
◾Obviously, a long and protracted war is not beneficial to the United States: President Trump is interested in a quick "victorious" war that would strengthen his ratings.
◾In the negative scenario, a protracted war leads to sharp increases of energy prices and the United States having huge problems in the Middle East.
◾Iran might close down the Hormuz Strait.
◾This will lead to growth in oil prices, which will be beneficial for Russia and bad for Ukraine in the war.
◾The war in Ukraine will fall out from the global news - we see that already.
It's easy to start wars and very hard to stop them, to end them.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1936691204114059751
The United States has launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. What might this mean for the world and for Ukraine?
◾The main question now is how Iran will respond.
◾The real situation in Iran is complicated. Not all who hate the Iranian regime applaud the strikes. The longer the strikes last, the stronger the anti-Israel and anti-US moods will become.
◾Will President Trump aim for a quick end of the war or will he join Israel that seems to think that there is a chance for a regime change?
◾So far, the regime in Iran is doing ok: there are no signs of officials fleeing or the army laying down their weapons. As of now, Tehran doesn't expect Israel's or US troops on the ground, and that keeps up the regime's faith that it will not collapse.
◾At the same time, it's important to note that even if the regime in Iran will weaken and collapse, there is no certainty that the new authorities in Iran will be friends of Israel.
◾Arabic countries are afraid of a regional war. They are sensitive to issues of sovereignty and are afraid that the war might grow into something of a much larger scale, eventually involving them.
◾Obviously, a long and protracted war is not beneficial to the United States: President Trump is interested in a quick "victorious" war that would strengthen his ratings.
◾In the negative scenario, a protracted war leads to sharp increases of energy prices and the United States having huge problems in the Middle East.
◾Iran might close down the Hormuz Strait.
◾This will lead to growth in oil prices, which will be beneficial for Russia and bad for Ukraine in the war.
◾The war in Ukraine will fall out from the global news - we see that already.
It's easy to start wars and very hard to stop them, to end them.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1936691204114059751
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