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6/23/2025, 9:40:47 PM
>>24490513
>Israel has no concrete war aims and knows regime change is a 1% chance
You're right that it's remote but Israel will take messing up Iran's nuclear program and military installations if it damages Iran's capabilities. To think like an Israeli, don't think of warfare as things necessarily going wrong and that the war is a means to return to peace and stability, but as a means to shape the conditions for another war 10-15 years in the future. War is not the abnormal state of affairs. They have essentially been in some state of military conflict their entire existence.
>the fact that decapitation strikes like Nasrallah's had no appreciable effect
That's incorrect. But more fundamentally is the damage to Hezbollah's political position in Lebanon and the loss of an important link to Iran via Syria (a knock-on effect). Hezbollah has been a sort of state-within-a-state and has depended on the rest of Lebanon being too weak and divided to stand up to them. Nasrallah's fatal mistake was also committing to entering the war on the same side as Hamas (because Hezbollah's resistance ideology demands it for legitimization) but not fully committing, because the rest of Lebanon didn't want it, which allowed Israel to throw Hamas on the defensive and then turn their full force on his organization.
>But even Israel is badly divided internally over this, with the real military and intelligence men seeing it as pointless.
I don't think you understand Israelis.
>Israel getting weaker relative to its neighbors every year.
No, it's getting stronger. This isn't what I expected but it's actually happening. This war with Iran will probably keep going. It's the beginning of a new continuous process. Think of the Middle East as a perpetually unstable ecosystem. A small change in one location can end up destabilizing the whole region in unpredictable ways. You have to at least understand that to operate in it.
>Israel has no concrete war aims and knows regime change is a 1% chance
You're right that it's remote but Israel will take messing up Iran's nuclear program and military installations if it damages Iran's capabilities. To think like an Israeli, don't think of warfare as things necessarily going wrong and that the war is a means to return to peace and stability, but as a means to shape the conditions for another war 10-15 years in the future. War is not the abnormal state of affairs. They have essentially been in some state of military conflict their entire existence.
>the fact that decapitation strikes like Nasrallah's had no appreciable effect
That's incorrect. But more fundamentally is the damage to Hezbollah's political position in Lebanon and the loss of an important link to Iran via Syria (a knock-on effect). Hezbollah has been a sort of state-within-a-state and has depended on the rest of Lebanon being too weak and divided to stand up to them. Nasrallah's fatal mistake was also committing to entering the war on the same side as Hamas (because Hezbollah's resistance ideology demands it for legitimization) but not fully committing, because the rest of Lebanon didn't want it, which allowed Israel to throw Hamas on the defensive and then turn their full force on his organization.
>But even Israel is badly divided internally over this, with the real military and intelligence men seeing it as pointless.
I don't think you understand Israelis.
>Israel getting weaker relative to its neighbors every year.
No, it's getting stronger. This isn't what I expected but it's actually happening. This war with Iran will probably keep going. It's the beginning of a new continuous process. Think of the Middle East as a perpetually unstable ecosystem. A small change in one location can end up destabilizing the whole region in unpredictable ways. You have to at least understand that to operate in it.
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