An interesting factor here that people aren't yet talking about is the geopolitical position Russia is finding itself in with its reduced military stocks.
All the former Soviet countries are now less afraid of Russia than they have been for a long time. Azerbaijan is perhaps the most visible example of this. Russia just doesn't have the capability to reasonably threaten it anymore and thus Azerbaijan can fully set its own policy. None of the former Soviet countries are grateful for what Russia did to them. Aliyev has already taken their mask off and is publicly giving the finger to Putin. This is humiliating for Moscow.
Next one like that slowly emerging is Kazakhstan. We'll start to see more independent-from-Russia rhetoric from Tokayev in the coming 1-2 years already.
Depending on how long the attrition from the Ukraine war will last and Russian economic situation, after Kazakhstan, the most impactful one to turn away from Moscow could be Belarus.
And thus the second Soviet collapse is happening right in front of our eyes with Russia having none of the former allies left.