Since 2022, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. Our team took a brief look at the numbers and noted the following trends and figures:
The 2,736 drones launched in June, many targeting Kyiv, make up nearly 10% of the total, proving growing production. This aligns with earlier warnings from UA intelligence, which estimated Russia’s monthly output at around 2700 Shahed-type UAVs and roughly 2500 decoys
Ukrainian Air Force data shows 5,438 drones of this type were launched at Ukraine in June 2025 - about twice the number cited by Zelensky. The gap likely comes from counting both Geran and decoys UAVs, while Zelensky referred only to strictly Geran drones.
Based on our analysis, RU's drone production averaged approximately 60.5 units per day between February and April 2025 - roughly 1,850 drones per month. This is close to June figures, especially when accounting for continued growth in production and periods of stockpiling
When compared to RU's original drone production plans, leaked and visualized in 2023, the current pace appears largely consistent with expectations, though a bit below the initial targets (Depending on whether the initial production numbers included decoy numbers).
For context, UA officials told Forbes in August 2024 that RU was producing about 500 Shaheds a month then. Since then, output has multiplied, and the drones have become deadlier: the warhead weight has increased from 50 to 90 kg, and maneuverability has improved
The growing scale is a serious problem. Even with a very optimistic interception rate of 95%, a single wave of 700 drones would still let roughly 35 reach their targets. Three such waves could cause over 100 impacts, each carrying a 90-kg warhead.
UA is mounting an effective response, but current capacity isn’t enough to match the scale of the threat. It’s not just about increasing production but also about reducing the cost per interception