Russia's demographic winter is coming

Russia faces a severe demographic decline that could see its population shrink by nearly half by the end of the century, a new study warns. According to research by "If We Are to Be Precise," an independent data analysis project, Russia's population is on track to fall to 81.4 million by 2100 if current trends in mortality, fertility, and migration continue. Without any net migration, the figure could plummet to just 67.8 million.

The projection, based on pre-pandemic and pre-war data from 2017-2019, paints a starker picture than even the United Nations' low-variant forecast of 88 million. While the Kremlin has focused on policies to encourage higher birth rates, the study underscores the critical role of immigration in mitigating the country's depopulation crisis. Since 1991, migrants, primarily from former Soviet republics, have offset between 50% and 70% of Russia's natural population decline.

The demographic crunch will not be felt evenly. While the North Caucasus region's higher birth rates offer some resilience, Russia's economic hubs are heavily dependent on newcomers. Without migration, the population of the Moscow metropolitan area is projected to shrink by 58% by 2100; the St. Petersburg region would see a 65% decline.

This demographic shift will also dramatically age the country. By 2100, nearly a quarter of the population (23.5%) will be over the age of 65, while the share of children under 14 will fall to just 13.4%. This will place immense strain on the state, as a shrinking workforce is forced to support a growing number of pensioners, increasing the country's demographic dependency ratio. According to Salavat Abylkalikov, a demographer and visiting researcher at Northumbria University, immigration is a key tool to "rejuvenate" the population structure and fill labor shortages.